Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25, 2021 30 tweets 26 min read Read on X
This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.

Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Here we see Japan again and tropical storm #Nepartak which is on route towards the Olympics.

#Nepartak is a child of #INFA's gyre and you can see an atmospheric river coming from #INFA's outflows which leads directly to her.
This weekly thread is the sequel to the daily threads published April-July in solidarity with the efforts to complete the 2nd filling of the #GERD dam under difficult circumstances.

There hasn't been a clear view of the #GERD in the past week sadly, just a glimpse.
Today's picture showing the big picture.
1. The Indian Monsoon is still sending a lot of moisture west.
2. #ArabianStorms continue on a daily basis
3. The Ethiopia Highlands rains remain intense.
Here we see a 10 day animation of PWAT over North Africa from the CMC model.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 25th through August 3rd.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA models.
48-hour #NorthAfrica rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same 4 models).
Finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts
A 24 hour animation of clouds and storms over the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa today.
This is a new plot, a ten day Ethiopian Precipitable water forecast. This forecasts the quantity of water that is in the atmosphere over the #HornOfAfrica, this is where the rainfall comes from. There is a correlation between presence of water and rainfall intensity.
This PWAT forecast from the same model (Australia's ACG model) shows a wider view including the source of the water the Indian Monsoon.
It suggests rainfall will be heaviest over the next few days and decline at the beginning of next week.
Today's July 25th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica: #Somalia, #Somaliland, east #SouthSudan, south east parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

Purple heaviest rain covers #Tigray, & #Abbay (#GERD) & #TekezeAtbara basins.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models.

NOTE: The ten day forecasts suggest the levels of rain over Ethiopia's Highlands will continue at their intensity of roughly 1 inch per day across the entire catchments.
This animation shows the #ArabianStorms on July 23rd towards the tail end of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst.
And for the July 24th
And July 22nd...
And with the 21st we complete the record back to the last daily forecast report on the 20th.

The #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now in its 10th day. The Attached thread is from the 1st day July 15th & the hashtag will lead you to the other threads.
Rainfall over this period in the Arabian Peninsula is as far as I am aware unprecedented and almost certainly a sign of climate change in the region.

In the Nile basin rainfall has been unusually widespread, intense, has continued through the night.
It is probable this is the reason for the unusually high flows reported by Sudan at the Merowe dam this week. There is a high risk that significant Nile flooding may occur this year, especially if this pattern continues. This has all the hallmarks of an extreme weather event.
That said I am not a meteorologist and have no access to the flow data which is a much better way to understand the level of threat this poses. @TirusewAsefa may be able to help with this.

For some time I have been concerned about the very high levels of the Aswan Dam.
Here we see satellite images, left today, and right 25th of June. I have no expertise in reading these images but they may show that the dam level has been reduced to enhance the dam's capacity to manage the flow surge which is coming Egypt's way.
The final forecast segment addresses the #MiddleEast.

July 25th 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain #UAE

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 25th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
From these forecasts we can deduce that the unusual rainfall weather on the Peninsula and Sudan is not yet finished.
And finally we have today's long-range #MiddleEast July 25th rainfall forecasts.

The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts.

الله أعلم
A quick look at @Arab_Storms compilation of flooding eyewitness reports from the past two days leaves me feeling stunned.

Extreme weather appears to be underway everywhere.

I would suggest that readers go and see for themselves >> twitter.com/Arab_Storms
Here @Arab_Storms is keeping track of the fatality count, which is growing rapidly.
Translation: According to a United Nations report, climate change has killed more than one million people in the past 50 years. Our world is getting warmer by the day and these heavy rains are a sign of climate change.

We now move to a big picture view. North Western Hemisphere zero hour simulation data (i.e. now).

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11-15 kms high)
And that's it folks.

We are in a wide world of weird weather together. That much is becoming very clear.

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
Image
Image
Image
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada

The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.

So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.

I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.

It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.

Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.

And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 8
Comedians vs Trump and Elon /1

Trump Ratchets Up Call to Annex Canada & Greenland as Trudeau Says He'll... via @YouTube
Comedians vs Trump & Elon /2
Zuck, Meta fact checking, McDonald’s, and Amazon Cozy Up To Trump, Dropping Fact-Checkers & their integrity. via @YouTube
@YouTube Comedians vs Trump & Elon /3

SETH Meyers - Trump's Insane Press Conference About Greenland, Jack Smith, Gulf of Mex... via @YouTube
Read 6 tweets

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