Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25, 2021 30 tweets 26 min read Read on X
This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.

Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Here we see Japan again and tropical storm #Nepartak which is on route towards the Olympics.

#Nepartak is a child of #INFA's gyre and you can see an atmospheric river coming from #INFA's outflows which leads directly to her.
This weekly thread is the sequel to the daily threads published April-July in solidarity with the efforts to complete the 2nd filling of the #GERD dam under difficult circumstances.

There hasn't been a clear view of the #GERD in the past week sadly, just a glimpse.
Today's picture showing the big picture.
1. The Indian Monsoon is still sending a lot of moisture west.
2. #ArabianStorms continue on a daily basis
3. The Ethiopia Highlands rains remain intense.
Here we see a 10 day animation of PWAT over North Africa from the CMC model.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 25th through August 3rd.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA models.
48-hour #NorthAfrica rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same 4 models).
Finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts
A 24 hour animation of clouds and storms over the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa today.
This is a new plot, a ten day Ethiopian Precipitable water forecast. This forecasts the quantity of water that is in the atmosphere over the #HornOfAfrica, this is where the rainfall comes from. There is a correlation between presence of water and rainfall intensity.
This PWAT forecast from the same model (Australia's ACG model) shows a wider view including the source of the water the Indian Monsoon.
It suggests rainfall will be heaviest over the next few days and decline at the beginning of next week.
Today's July 25th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica: #Somalia, #Somaliland, east #SouthSudan, south east parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

Purple heaviest rain covers #Tigray, & #Abbay (#GERD) & #TekezeAtbara basins.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models.

NOTE: The ten day forecasts suggest the levels of rain over Ethiopia's Highlands will continue at their intensity of roughly 1 inch per day across the entire catchments.
This animation shows the #ArabianStorms on July 23rd towards the tail end of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst.
And for the July 24th
And July 22nd...
And with the 21st we complete the record back to the last daily forecast report on the 20th.

The #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now in its 10th day. The Attached thread is from the 1st day July 15th & the hashtag will lead you to the other threads.
Rainfall over this period in the Arabian Peninsula is as far as I am aware unprecedented and almost certainly a sign of climate change in the region.

In the Nile basin rainfall has been unusually widespread, intense, has continued through the night.
It is probable this is the reason for the unusually high flows reported by Sudan at the Merowe dam this week. There is a high risk that significant Nile flooding may occur this year, especially if this pattern continues. This has all the hallmarks of an extreme weather event.
That said I am not a meteorologist and have no access to the flow data which is a much better way to understand the level of threat this poses. @TirusewAsefa may be able to help with this.

For some time I have been concerned about the very high levels of the Aswan Dam.
Here we see satellite images, left today, and right 25th of June. I have no expertise in reading these images but they may show that the dam level has been reduced to enhance the dam's capacity to manage the flow surge which is coming Egypt's way.
The final forecast segment addresses the #MiddleEast.

July 25th 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain #UAE

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 25th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
From these forecasts we can deduce that the unusual rainfall weather on the Peninsula and Sudan is not yet finished.
And finally we have today's long-range #MiddleEast July 25th rainfall forecasts.

The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts.

الله أعلم
A quick look at @Arab_Storms compilation of flooding eyewitness reports from the past two days leaves me feeling stunned.

Extreme weather appears to be underway everywhere.

I would suggest that readers go and see for themselves >> twitter.com/Arab_Storms
Here @Arab_Storms is keeping track of the fatality count, which is growing rapidly.
Translation: According to a United Nations report, climate change has killed more than one million people in the past 50 years. Our world is getting warmer by the day and these heavy rains are a sign of climate change.

We now move to a big picture view. North Western Hemisphere zero hour simulation data (i.e. now).

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11-15 kms high)
And that's it folks.

We are in a wide world of weird weather together. That much is becoming very clear.

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Sep 17
These are all Israeli IDF army officers who were trained in the uk

Source: - Declassified - Image
NEW | Declassified has obtained a list of Israelis who graduated from the Royal College of Defence Studies in London.

Israeli officers fighting in Gaza have received training at Britain’s prestigious Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS), Declassified reveals. /1
At least 32 Israeli military figures, including senior commanders such as Colonel Yaniv Asor, head of the Israeli occupation forces Southern Command, and director-general Amir Baram, are RCDS alumni, 6 more trained at the UK’s Advanced Command & Staff Course-Oxfordshire. /2
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
The Gaza flotilla is intending as I understand from informed sources in contact with the flotilla intending to pause again and regroup in Malta on its trip to Israel to break the seige in Gaza.
The flotilla is in my view on very grave danger and ought to be being escorted by European naval vessels.
Sources close to the flotilla inform me that there is evidence of internal sabotage of the planned humanitarian mission and may have been infiltrated by bad actors.

Some media participating in the flotilla were expelled in Tunisia and it seems possible that Israel is involved.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 10
At this point following the Qatar obscenity Israel is now breaking the internet and the world.

something decisive is needed to break Israel - a peaceful action that will work and show the world that justice still exists and that peace is possible.
A wise friend proposed a brilliant idea. Every nation on earth which is willing and able should send a frigate to the Mediterranean Sea and take a message to Israel that it cannot ignore.
The foundations of the United Nations itself are now crumbling under the weight of the Gaza Obscenity and nations like Britain that seem to have been turned are facing protest and resistance of epic proportions from their citizens.

The center cannot hold.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 4
I’ll be posting videos and news here on Twitter from the flotilla which is about to depart from Majorca for Tunis on the first leg of the journey to Gaza.
More boats are expected to join the flotilla from Europe and North Africa along the way as it moves west across the Mediterranean. @GretaThunberg is making the voyage again and Israel will not be able to contain or stop this flotilla most likely. And definitely not the publicity.
This first video is of a wind squall hitting one of the boats as it departs Barcelona.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 10
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.

LIVE: PM Netanyahu Holds a Press conference youtube.com/live/1ebXvF9MO…
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets

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