The new #MayoClinic study finds Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) of #Pfizer shot dropped to 42% against #Delta#SARSCoV2 infection (not against hospitalization & deaths). 1/
Earlier unpublished reports from #Israel also indicated the same 2/
Few other recent studies have also placed the #VE of Pfizer mRNA vaccine between 40-60% against #SARSCoV2 infection/symptomatic disease but not against severe disease & deaths. Table by @EricTopol 3/
If we retrospectively analyze the performance of the two #Covid vaccines employed here in India, their performance against Delta (#Covishield VE 63·1% & #Covaxin 65.2%) was on par with their much hyped contemporaries in the US 4/
Now, the FDA has authorized a third dose of #Pfizer & #Moderna’s vaccines for immunocompromised. Is the decision, right? May be for the immunocompromised 5/
But for general population, we need to first sort out the one key issue: Was it the real waning of the #Pfizer vaccine or merely the low VE against the #Delta as its prevalence had increased during the later months in #Israel? 6/
So, what do we need? A booster/3rd dose of generic #SARSCoV2 dose or a specific booster against #Delta with revised formulation? 7/
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Will the newly identified sub-lineages of #Delta may initiate a new wave of #Covid19 in India? What impact the increasing prevalence of the Delta-D clade would have on global #COVID burden?
#Delta variant and its extended family: How much do we need to worry?
During the first few months of the #pandemic, the evolution of the virus was relatively predictable, with substitutions accumulating at a fixed pace: 1 substitution every second week 2/
In contrast, the 2nd year of the #pandemic is punctuated by the emergence of several #variants that bore evidence of dramatic evolution 3/
The #Delta is winning, for the moment, & the Global #coronavirus map shows that we’re failing to fight it. But the #pandemic will be over one day—but the way there is different now 1/
The virus will almost certainly be a permanent part of our lives, even as #vaccines blunt its ability to cause death and severe disease. Most people will meet the virus eventually; we must ensure that as many people as possible do so with two doses of vaccine in them 2/
The vaccines are working and working well. Vaccinated people are indisputably safer than unvaccinated people. But although vaccinated individuals are well protected, highly vaccinated communities can still be vulnerable, for 3 reasons: 3/
How well are the current #Covid vaccines performing?
In all fairness, we can say they are offering high protection against severe disease & deaths; considerable protection against the symptomatic disease; but only modest protection ag. infections/transmission of the disease 1/
To put it another way, the vaccines are contributing little to our fight against the frequent surges of the #SARSCoV2 virus.
This leads to one pertinent question:
What ought to be the prime objective of the vaccination particularly amid an intense pandemic? 2/
To resist the ongoing outbreak or avoid hospitalizations and deaths?
A four-fold reduction in the hospitalisation & death rates is not much use if we just allow infections to reach four-fold the previous peak. 3/
#Moderna says its vaccine shows durable 93% efficacy through 6 months.
Final analysis (median follow-up 5.3 mo):
-Against COVID19: 93.2%
-Against severe COVID19: 98.2%
-Against death: 100%
(Note: All data prior delta) 1/
Further break down of #Moderna efficacy by 2-month segments post 2nd dose; at month 4+, efficacy is 92.4%
#Pfizer vax (by months 4-6) efficacy is 84% - though against severe disease maintains 97%. 2/
Yet it expects antibody levels will start to wane, and with #delta there will be an increase in #breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated; it sees need for #boosters 3/
The duration of immunity in #SARSCoV2 infected people remains unclear. Recent studies have estimated that the correlate of 50% protection from re-infection was 20% of the mean convalescent #NAbs titre 2/
The sera collected from a cohort of 125 individuals with RT-PCR confirmed SARSCoV2 infections up to 386 days after symptom onset. In the subset of 65 sera collected from day 151 to 386 after symptom onset, all remained positive in PRNT50 3/
A recent #Chinese study shows that the viral loads in the #Delta infections were ~1000 times higher than those in the earlier 19A/19B strain infections on the day when viruses were firstly detected 1/
#Delta not only had a shorter incubation period but also has a shorter latent period. So, the time difference stayed the same but with much higher viral load. That's terrible & explains near-vertical waves 2/
Because it binds & replicates faster, #Delta creates a higher viral load which triggers symptoms in a host much faster 3/