Thread by @vipintukur

The #Delta is winning, for the moment, & the Global #coronavirus map shows that we’re failing to fight it. But the #pandemic will be over one day—but the way there is different now 1/

The virus will almost certainly be a permanent part of our lives, even as #vaccines blunt its ability to cause death and severe disease. Most people will meet the virus eventually; we must ensure that as many people as possible do so with two doses of vaccine in them 2/

The vaccines are working and working well. Vaccinated people are indisputably safer than unvaccinated people. But although vaccinated individuals are well protected, highly vaccinated communities can still be vulnerable, for 3 reasons: 3/

First, unvaccinated people aren’t randomly distributed. Instead, they tend to be geographically clustered and socially connected, creating vulnerable pockets that #Delta can assault. 4/

Second, #Delta could potentially spread from vaccinated people too—a point of recent confusion. Delta-infected people build up similar levels of virus in their nose regardless of vaccination status. 5/

Third, Delta’s extreme #transmissibility negates some of the community-level protection that vaccines offer. 6/

Furthermore, #HerdImmunity point where enough people are immune that outbreaks automatically fizzle out—likely cannot be reached through vaccination alone. 7/

There’s not really a way to solve the Delta problem through vaccination alone!
Though the Vaccines remain the best way for individuals to protect themselves, but societies cannot treat vaccines as their only defense. 8/

The #pandemic isn’t over, but it will be: The goal is still to reach the endgame with as little damage, death, & disability as possible. 9/

The “zero COVID” dream of fully stamping out the virus is a fantasy. Instead, the pandemic ends when almost everyone has immunity, preferably because they were vaccinated or alternatively because they were infected and survived. 10/

When that happens, the cycle of surges will stop, and the pandemic will peter out. The new coronavirus will become #endemic—a recurring part of our lives like its four cousins that cause common colds. 11/

It will be less of a problem, not because it has changed but because it is no longer novel and people are no longer immunologically vulnerable. 12/

Endemicity was always the likely outcome, but likely is now unavoidable. If #SARSCoV2 is here to stay, then most people will encounter it at some point in their life. That can be hard to accept, because many people spent the past year trying hard to avoid the virus entirely 13/

But “it’s not really the virus on its own that is terrifying. It’s the combination of the virus and a naive immune system. Once you don’t have the latter, the virus doesn’t have to be so scary.” 14/

If #endemicity is the future, then masks, distancing, and other precautions merely delay exposure to the virus—and to what end? 15/

There’s still so much for us to buy time for:
-Suppressing the virus gives schools the best chance of staying open
-It reduces the risk that even worse variants will evolve
-It gives researchers time to better understand the long-term consequences of breakthrough infections 16/

-Curbing the coronavirus’s spread also protects millions of #immunocompromised
-Finally, we simply need more time to reach unvaccinated people. 17/

Eventually, humanity will enter into a tenuous peace with the coronavirus. #COVID19 outbreaks will be rarer and smaller, but could still occur once enough immunologically naive babies are born. 18/

Adults might need #boosters once immunity wanes substantially, but based on current data, that won’t happen for at least two years.
The bigger concern is that new variants might evolve that can escape our current immune defenses 19/

The current pandemic surge and the inevitability of endemicity feel like defeats. They could, instead, be opportunities to rethink our attitudes about the viruses we allow ourselves to inhale. 20/
@edyong209 in a riveting story on the future of Covid19 👇
theatlantic.com/health/archive…