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19 Sep, 3 tweets, 3 min read
#Alisson’s #PremierLeague form is an absolute joke! 🔥

He’s faced 7 1v1 situations so far & saved all 7! 🤯

My model predicts an average #PL GK would’ve conceded ~4 goals from those situations by now! 👑

How long do we think he can keep the 100% record? 🤔

#LFC #LiverpoolFC
My model uses a database of #PremierLeague 1v1s to not only calculate the expected save probability of each 1v1 situation but to also predict what the optimal strategy is in each situation & how likely a GK would be to make the save for a given decision (for more see thread👇🏻).
So can #Alisson keep this up?

He obviously cant keep his 100% 1v1 record forever but I think he can keep his way above avg form going as my model finds that #Alisson only decreased the finish difficulty for the opposition striker with his decision making on 1 of the 7 occasions!

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More from @Jhdharrison1

John Harrison Profile picture
22 Aug
#DeGea is one of the best GKs in the #PremierLeague when dealing with long range 1v1s & the save vs #Armstrong was great!

He knew AA was ~15yrd out so it would take a top finish to beat him so he didn’t need to rush out or gamble as that would only make AA’s finish easier

#MUFC ImageImageImageImage
It may look like a simple save in the end but that’s all down to #DeGea’s excellent decision making which massively reduces the chance quality

The composure DDG showed to stay deep to his line & not over commit early isn’t common, even in the #PremierLeague

Such top goalkeeping Image
Here’s a similar situation where the GK didn’t keep their composure during a long range 1v1 & rushed forward & gambled & as a result let in a pretty average finish

I am not using this to bash #Bachmann, instead I think it should be used to praise #DeGea, the DDG save wasn’t easy ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
19 Aug
THREAD: #Ramsdale to #Arsenal

It will be interesting to see how #Ramsdale gets on at #AFC & how his game evolves.

One thing #AFC know they are getting is a quality 1v1 stopper!

My model suggests #Ramsdale’s 1v1 prowess saved #SUFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL GK would’ve!
In comparison #Leno was average at stopping 1v1s last year & given the brand of football #Arsenal wish to play maybe this was in their thought process when they scouted #Ramsdale.

My model has #Ramsdale as one of the top 5 1v1 stoppers in the #PL & potentially can still improve!
#Ramsdale’s strength vs close range 1v1s is down to his lightning fast speed of thought & speed off the line in combination with his wonderful bravery & tidy spread technique.

This save vs #Wolves is a good example

Rambo creates a huge barrier & snuffs out an excellent chance!
Read 9 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
16 Aug
Project Preview:

This #AlexanderArnold FK against #Chelsea was the most unstoppable FK in the #PremierLeague since 2017/2018 according to the FK ExSaves model I’ve built!

My model predicts this shot would only be saved 6 times in 1000!

& Trent made it look so simple!

#LFC #GK ImageImage
For those interested, this graphic is a good representation of what the model actually “sees”.

The variables used to train the model were:

• Initial Shot Distance
• Initial Shot Angle
• Shot Trajectory Relative to the Wall
• Final Shot Location
• Shot Velocity Image
My model passed the sanity check as it found:

Closer FKs are harder to save ✅

More central FKs are harder to save ✅

FKs which go over the wall are harder to save ✅

FK which are higher & closer to the corners are harder to save ✅

FK which are faster are harder to save ✅
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
14 Aug
Class from #Alisson!

Wonderful decision to wait & react rather than engaging #Pukki!

#Alisson’s improved so much vs long range 1v1s!

19/20 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 6.01
19/20 long range 1v1 Saves: 5 ❌

20/21 long range 1v1 ExSaves: 11.46
20/21 long range 1v1 Saves: 13 ✅

#LFC ImageImageImageImage
So many GKs panic when strikers run in 1v1 (& #Alisson used to be one of them) & feel they have to rush out & immediately & end up gifting easy finishes.

It’s awesome that #Alisson seems to have fixed this weakness in his game because his compatriot #Ederson still hasn’t! 👇🏻
By backing off #Alisson forces #Pukki wider than he would’ve been if he had rushed early & allows his defenders to pressure the ball from behind & forces #Pukki to try to smash the ball rather than having an sidefoot or chipped finish which makes the chance quality so much lower! Image
Read 5 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
18 May
What a save from #DeGea

Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment

It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!

Not many GKs could make such a good decision

#MUFC #MUNFUL
The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
Read 8 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
7 May
After showing us how a GK can maximise their chances of saving a close range 1v1, #Schmeichel has just show how us how a GK can minimise their chances of saving a long range 1v1!

By engaging early he allows Wilson to easily round him with 1 touch!

He needed to wait for longer!
If #Schmeichel waits inside his 6 yard box for #Wilson’s touch, #Wilson then has a decision to make:

1. Shoot from 17yrd knowing defenders are track back.

2. Take a touch knowing he will bring it closer to goal but also closer to the GK.

#FNF #LEINEW
Regardless of what decision #Wilson makes #Schmeichel will have a higher probability of making the save than he would have if he rushes out & engages early like he does.

1. If #Wilson shoots #Schmeichel’s deep position will maximise his reaction time & thus his save probability.
Read 6 tweets

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