1/
I had the opportunity during the past couple of days to have lengthy chats with both #United and #Southwest pilots. So this is both a bit of an explainer for what happened with Southwest’s weekend from hell as well as corporate #VaccineMandates writ large.
2/
Southwest has had just as many problems restaffing since May as the other carriers. (Note: the airline w the worst record on this is American. They sold tickets as if everything was going to be normal, but failed to staff to meet demand. The worst seems to be behind them now)
3/
Southwest always runs a lean ship. They have very few extra crews to step in when there is a problem. They also count on crews picking up extra shifts, because oftentimes pilot earns double pay. #NiceIfYouCanGetIt
4/
This system works fine most of the time. But last weekend there was a weather issue, & there was an FAA issue, & that pushed the Southwest system to the brink. On top of that, earlier in the week, SW announced their vaccine mandate, & did so w/o fully consulting the union.
5/
There were definitely some bruised egos. Said bruising contributed to fewer than 1% of SW pilots calling in “sick”, & fewer pilots picking up extra shifts. Normally, the system could absorb that. But add in the weather/FAA issues: a cascading series of failures.
6/
The pilots’ union supports the mandate, &did NOT approve the sickout (&apparently had a fairly stern talking-to with the offending pilots behind closed doors). SW came out within hours of the TV governor saying vaccine mandates were banned, asserting they would ignore the gov.
7/
United was the first airline to announce its own vaccine mandate; It is now completed. At first 3% of staff claimed some sort of medical/religious exemptions.
8/
Management explained not only would those fabricating exemption criteria be fired, but since vaccines r now industry standard, they would be ineligible to ever work for any airline anywhere ever again. 2/3 of those asking for exemptions withdrew their requests & took the shot.
9/
That left <1%. In the end it appears no exemptions occurred. United demanded doctor’s/pastor’s notes as proof of commitment; None of the <1% cld generate them. No surprise. Doctors say to get vaccinated, while no significant religion is granting waivers. (The Amish don’t fly.)
10/
So United's 3% turned to 1% turned to 500 turned to 350 turned to 150 turned to 6. 1 2 3 4 5 <6>. Those six are suing United. The case is winding thru the courts now w a ruling expected before month's end.
That's TeXas governor.

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More from @PeterZeihan

2 Oct
1/
A #China-centric #demographics chain:

Demographics are about the balance between young and old. Young folks do the work and raise the kids. They are the consumers.
2/

China had scads in that group in the 2000s. When Americans look at this they see waves of cheap workers stealing global jobs. When the politburo looks they see waves of consumption overturning global norms. Both were right. Were. Past tense.
3/

20 years later not only is everyone 20 years older, but the Chinese had very few kids during the intervening 20 years. China's labor costs are now skyrocketing, and in productivity-adjusted terms are well below American workers. & the Mao generation is moving into retirement.
Read 10 tweets
9 Sep
1/ Here is what I've been waiting for: major institutions doing away with the test-test-test option and simply forcing vaccinations. The legal niceties are firmly on the institutions' side, but...
msn.com/en-us/news/us/…

msn.com/en-us/money/co…
2/ ...we'll still have fast court challenges that will culminate in a 9-0 Supreme Court ruling that cites the 1905 precedent which formally enabled all companies and all governments at all levels to mandate the smallpox vaccine.
3/ The whole process will be loud and unpleasant, but this is the way forward...and the way out of COVID.
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
1/4
That this is such a minor story in the #UnitedStates is a testament to how little the United States cares about global #energysecurity
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4
With #oilprices back above $70 we will see a big surge of activity in the #shale fields. At a minimum there will be 500 KBPD that comes from the #Fracklog in short order.
3/4
The attack came from #Yemen - which is much farther away from #RasTanura (the worlds largest oil loading facility) than #Iran. #SaudiArabia now has no option but to significantly expand its strike capabilities.
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 18
WIND THREAD

1)
Interest in the #solar thread was so strong that I decided to pull together some info on #wind as well. And actually use some #hashtags to make it easier to search.
So with that, on with some windy thoughts from a this particular blowhard:
2)
Like #solar, #wind power faces intermittency problems, so it MUST be paired w conventional power generation unless u r ok having your electricity supply die with the wind. This is particularly the case w old-style 40m turbines in many early-adopter locations like #PalmSprings
3)
Wind’s #sitingrestrictions r different from solar. #Turbines CAN b installed above crops.
Wind CANNOT b installed on slopes (winds r 2erratic, so things alternate between no power & snapped towers) nor above 10k feet (thin air = less force on the turbine blades).
Read 14 tweets
27 Apr 18
SOLAR THREAD:
Allow me to establish my gravitas on this topic. Here’s a picture of the front of my house this am. Those are not paperweights on the roof. I am not a solar-power hater. I am something much worse. I am a Green who can do math. (!)
2/
Solar power faces a series of daunting technical challenges:

First, high solar intensity. The enemies of intensity are humidity, low altitude, high latitude, and slope.
3/

Solar intensity is much higher at elevation, humidity generates light reflecting haze/clouds, high latitudes introduce massive seasonal variation, and slope vastly reduces area available for panels.
Read 14 tweets

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