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Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
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15 Oct, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Iranian #COVID19 epidemic: Salient features

Continued circulation of #SARS2 from late jan 2020 to Sep 2021 in iran despite >100% attack rates in 11 provinces. 1/ Image
As of Sep 21, only 48% (95% CI: 43-55%) of COVID deaths in Iran have been reported. Approx 0.4% of the population have died of COVID so far
Estimated #IFR increased by a factor of ~2 over the course of the epidemic (from wave 1 to 5).

Across different ages, the 3rd wave in Oct 2020 & the current wave with #Delta had the largest impact on younger age-groups. 3/
Natural infection didn't do much to stop the spread in many provinces despite several waves of infection.

4/
At the same time that #Manaus in Brazil was experiencing >75% attack rates, some provinces in #Iran had equally high attack rates. Since then, some provinces reached >100% AR but natural immunity DID NOT stop the spread 5/

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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More from @vipintukur

Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
14 Oct
Are the #boosters already waning?

Booster effectiveness against breakthrough coronavirus infection is already waning.

The protection against infection among Pfizer booster recipients ages 60+ topped out by day 30 then fell steadily. 1/ Image
By day 58, the #booster appeared to be providing around 40% of the maximum increased level of protection above the initial 2-dose series.

New data finds boosters are helping more than just 50+, but that the effects already appear to be decreasing. 2/ Image
Bottom line: The case for boosters to prevent infection for all adults is now far stronger, if that is our goal. But how long that protection lasts remains unclear at best and boosters may turn out to lower the #Ro of #SARS2 only briefly. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
3 Oct
How effective are #COVID vaccines against #transmissions?

Key points:

1-Vaccination reduces transmission of #Delta, but by less than #Alpha
2-Alpha: Pfizer 62%, AZ 38% reduction
Delta: Pfizer 37%, AZ 15% reduction (aOR)
3-The impact of vaccination decreased over time 1/
4-Vaccinated people with breakthrough infections were less likely to spread Covid.
5-Vaccination not only reduces the risk of becoming seriously ill from the virus, it also protects those around you. 2/
6-Contacts of vaccinated cases were less likely get Covid than contacts of unvaccinated cases.
7-Most transmission occurred in households, showing that vaccination can protect household members—including kids not yet eligible for vaccination. 3/

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 4 tweets
Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
2 Oct
No doubt, #molnupiravir is touted as a ‘game changer’ as far as therapeutics against #SARS2 are concerned. But the news related to its probable #mutagenic potential comes as a dampener 1/
#rNHC, an active metabolite of #Molnupiravir, inhibits SARS2 replication in cell cultures through lethal mutagenesis, but is also mutagenic to mammalian host cells 2/

Read this paper👇
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
#rNHC has powerful in vitro and in vivo activity against a large number of highly pathogenic emerging RNA viruses and represents a potentially important drug for use in the current and future pandemics. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
1 Oct
What might #Covid19 look like once the pandemic is over?

With #SARS2 it’s already clear that immunity from infection wanes..it might follow..in which protection from infection erodes over time, but protection from severe disease does not. So it would behave like COMMON COLD 1/
Or it’d be like #FLU, where immunity vs. severe disease also wanes. Influenza is a more sobering analogy. It, too, causes infections throughout life, but reinfections are often more severe than those caused by the four endemic coronaviruses. 2/
So, the outlook is different if immunity against severe #COVID declines as well. In that case paradoxically, it might be best if the virus keeps infecting people frequently... Avoiding infection at all costs might not be the best strategy for vaccinated people. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
7 Sep
#Covid19 Vaccination: What do we have learned so far?

It is almost 9 months since the first Covid vaccine was injected to a UK national.

Let’s do a quick recap of the major ‘takeaways’ in next 25 tweets......................
1) Covid vaccines are highly effective against severe disease, hospitalization, & deaths in fully vaccinated individuals. Studies after studies from different countries in different continents with different vaccines have confirmed this fact

ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavi…
2) Vaccines have only minimal impact on infection and transmission. They are not able to halt/prevent development of a new surge. The current Covid19 vaccines are effective in preventing symptomatic COVID19 disease but fail to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection
nature.com/articles/s4159…
Read 28 tweets
Vipin M. Vashishtha Profile picture
15 Aug
Will the newly identified sub-lineages of #Delta may initiate a new wave of #Covid19 in India? What impact the increasing prevalence of the Delta-D clade would have on global #COVID burden?

My write-up deliberating on these issues in @TheWireScience 👇 science.thewire.in/the-sciences/a…
#Delta variant and its extended family: How much do we need to worry?

During the first few months of the #pandemic, the evolution of the virus was relatively predictable, with substitutions accumulating at a fixed pace: 1 substitution every second week 2/
In contrast, the 2nd year of the #pandemic is punctuated by the emergence of several #variants that bore evidence of dramatic evolution 3/
Read 40 tweets

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