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13 Oct, 5 tweets, 9 min read
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%

imf.org/external/pubs/…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
4/4 3 qtrs #China export y/y⬆️22.7%, imports ⬆️22.6%. Estimated -1% negative growth will impact US by <0.1%.
In the giant echo chamber of top China commentary where @SCMPNews quotes @FinancialTimes quotes the same 6 gloomy men, you wouldn't know it
@SCMPNews @FinancialTimes @threadreaderapp #China #US #GDP #Growth #IMF #Estimates #Impact #ASEAN #UK #Euro #Evergrande #RealEstate #Import #Export

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Liqian Ren Profile picture
13 Oct
Some coal mining fatality numbers. With China coal in focus, couldn't help but thinking how 20 years back, there seemed a tragic coal mining accident every month on Chinese news. Yet this year, the biggest tragedy seemed to be the frozen to death Marathon runners in Gansu. /1
Typically US has the best open data, with No. of miners and deaths decreasing significantly. %of death has plumeted too, with 0.01% of miners death in the US, which with <100k miners means <100 people each year. /2
According to Ministry of Emergency magt. end of last century annual deaths were 9506, but lowered to 316 in 2019. The lower death also partly due to smaller number of miners in China which is about 3473k now.
/3
Read 7 tweets
Liqian Ren Profile picture
12 Oct
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:

Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”，72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”，3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”，67.6% (49.6%) "Same"，8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
Read 14 tweets
Liqian Ren Profile picture
10 Oct
1/14. A thread on India/China. A rumored but likely authentic notice of #Walmart moving it's "Supplier Enablement Team" from #China to #India has been circulating on Chinese social media. Is this the beginning of business decoupling? A few pointers.
2. First, my understanding is Supplier Enablement team is to help suppliers getting their business efficiently so Walmart has efficiency in its own part of business. It is likely tied to Walmart commitment to source $10 Billion of India-Made Goods Each Year by 2027.
3. But is this a leading event in a significant shift of international businesses moving from China to India? It remains to be seen & an active area of attention. Southeast Asia are the common denominator in many of these supply decisions on the ground.
Read 19 tweets
Liqian Ren Profile picture
9 Oct
4. Is this regulation something new? It is officially codifying existing facts on the ground. The rumor is after the Edu regulation debacle/Edu Minister fired, this is govt trying to set it officially, so private capital doesn’t come in, then got banned, raising another uproar.
5. Will @caixin_intel /@Caijing be banned now? Likely not. They are state owned media, as Twitter labelled them thus, even though in China, they are considered somewhat opposition media and got article censored left and right.
6. What about Weibo/Tencent? First order effect are small because they were only in news distribution business, never in having actual journalists and news creation business. But there are some secondary effects.
Read 11 tweets
Liqian Ren Profile picture
9 Oct
1 A thread on China NDRC proposed ban on private capital in news media business and potential impact on companies like #Weibo #Tencent, @caixin_intel, #36kr etc. and other private financial companies like #蓝鲸 #财联社 baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=171306686…
2. NDRC：I have written about it and how central it is in China’s state-owned part of the business, which is still close to 40-50% of China GDP. It is central to understand the energy crisis because it has a say on coal production and electricity price.
3/12 China Market Entrance Regulations, similar to the Foreign Capital Entrance Regulations that's behind the reason for the VIE structure, creates a lot of arbitrage opportunities, if you are a brave lawyer/businessman. Link in Chinese of the 2021 Reg. ndrc.gov.cn/yjzxDownload/s…
Read 4 tweets
Liqian Ren Profile picture
8 Oct
1. Is financial market pricing in some heightened Taiwan Strait war risk this week? Yes, a little. No perfect measure. With China on holiday last wk, can attribute some pop of 5-yr CDS price as caused by heighted attention, which happens around Oct with back to back national days
2. To put in context, China 5 Yr CDS value is 48.87, reveals a 0.81% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. US 5 Yr CDS is 17.4, reveals a 0.29% implied probability of default. Recent increase in US mostly by the debt ceiling fight. #MintTheCoin hahaha
3. @PredictIt betting market doesn't have a Taiwan specific market, but has 3 China related contracts. Betting on who would be confirmed for next US Ambassador to China, and Pres. Xi's chance of staying as party General Secretary for next 10 years.
Read 11 tweets

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