As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its '17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its '17 turnout.
To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its '17 total at 4pm.
But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. '17. Whether it's enough for Youngkin, we'll see. #VAGOV
Another few big blue localities w/ 4pm turnout reports. Fairfax County now up to 96% of its '17 totals, Alexandria City up to 95%. That's robust turnout in suburban Dem strongholds, but not as big a surge vs. '17 as we're seeing in rural red localities.
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Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):
#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6 #CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8 #CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4 #CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1 #CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9 #CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12 #CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8 #CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8 #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15 #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1 #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?…
As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (#IL03) on the north side of Chicago. But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured #IL06.
This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s house into Rep. Bobby Rush (D)'s plurality Black #IL01 (!).
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.
In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin.
The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble.
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected
Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.