Thread by @kofner1

#Germany 🇩🇪 is overpaying for #climateprotection by 183 bln USD or 4.5 percent of #GDP. 📉🌍 @BjornLomborg #FalseAlarm #climate #economy /1

How can I argue this? First, I took #Germany's long-term #GDP forecast up to 2060 by the #OECD (2020-2050, in USD, dark blue line). /2

Then I corrected this #GDP #growth forecast with #Germany's expected average annual expenditures for climate protection estimated by the #KfW (ca. 5.2 percent of GDP annually!, green line). /3

Finally, I took #climate economist's W.D. #Nordhaus best estimate for the maximum global #GDP cost of 3.62 percent in 2100 from a 2 #Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century. The data is from @BjornLomborg's book "#FalseAlarm"./4

In my "model" the economic cost from #climatechange is likely to increase gradually, i.e. from "0" percent in 2020 to 1.37 percent of #GDP in 2050 (bright blue line). /5

Thus, #Germany - its economy, competitiveness and people - is overpaying for #climate protection measures by 183 bln USD on average or 4.5 percent of #GDP. That is an unnecessary burden of 2200 USD per capita each year! /6

Instead of wasting billions, the 🇩🇪 government should keep #climatemitigation measures not higher than 1.37 percent of #GDP by 2050, replace the national #carbon #tax for a global #ETS (#climateclub) 🌐, support #green R&D 👩‍🔬 and invest in #climateadaption 🏗️ measures. /fin