If you're confused about why #omicron is suddenly a crisis, it's exponential growth. Even if fewer people get seriously ill w/ this #covidvariant than priors (not clear, but hopeful data from #SouthAfrica), so many people abruptly ill with anything can grind the world to a halt.
With so many sick at once, you may lack school bus drivers, teachers, truck drivers to move supplies, grocery store shelf stockers, doctors & nurses, & so on. The world isn't set up for everyone to be sick simultaneously w/ #omicron. There's not enough redundancy in the system.
So even if NO ONE got seriously ill, but a large # of ppl were sick enough to be unable to work for a few days, it would be tough. Now add in that some % will get hospitalized, or die, of #Omicron. Even a small % of a very large # of cases is a big #. That's why we are worried.
This short video on exponential growth using M&Ms shows doubling every 2d, same as Omicron. Except instead of starting w/ 2 M&Ms, we start w/ 3% of new US cases being #Omicron. There were 120K US cases today, i.e. 3,600 cases of #Omicron so start w/ 3600.
We don't know exactly how fast #Omicron cases are growing. Some regions show doubling every 2.5 days, other show doubling as fast as daily. Either way, when you start w/ 3600, that's a🤯big number in a few wks. Now add holiday travel. That's why we're worried. /End #MedTwitter
P.S. If you're still w/ me & doom scrolling tweets, you should stop. You need to get some rest. When you wake up, buy yourself some better quality masks. Use this article to help you: scientificamerican.com/article/why-we…. @projectn95 is a non-profit w/ good masks. #GetVaxxed & #Boosted.
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We're still learning about #omicron. What we know: it is airborne & highly transmissible. Everyone needs to #wearamask indoors in public for now even if #vaccinated & #boosted. Cloth masks alone are not gonna cut it. Best: N95/KN95/KF94 😷. 2nd best: surgical 😷+ cloth on top.
I know it's hard to wear tight masks like N95/KN95/KF94 masks. Drs & nurses have worn them for yrs with many pts. We don't love them either. The best mask for an individual is the one you'll wear consistently & correctly (securely fitted, removing by loops, don't touch front).
Getting lots of harassment about this tweet. I'm spending my free time here trying to keep the public informed & safe. Anyone not up for that message is welcome to scroll on by. I lost someone I love to #COVID19. I am so sad & I don't want your families to feel the way I do.
Thread: Why are we doing #HCWForVaccines? 5.13B doses of #COVID19#vaccine have been given worldwide (33% of 🌍w/ 1+ doses), but only 1.6% of people in low-income countries have had a dose. This is unconscionable. A picture is worth a thousand words. #MedTwitter 1/X
That means even high-risk ppl--elders, HCWs--may not have had a dose. In #Zambia, a country I have worked in twice, there are ~800 practicing drs. A simple 3d contest like #HCWforVaccines can enable ALL OF #MedTwitter there to #GetVaccinated. And more. Think about that! 🤯 2/X
You can think: "There are 1.2B people in #Africa. When we started #HCWforVaccines 3d ago, 2.48% were #vaccinated. When we end at 11p, that % will be the same." OR "The 💰 we've raised could vax thousands of #MedTwitter, who will be alive & healthy to save MANY lives." 3/X
A #HCWforVaccines thread about the power of #gratitude & action. So, 2 days ago, my #HCWvsHunger co-captain & muse tweeted this out of the blue, tagging me. 👇 1/X
And I immediately texted her that she needed to give me a heads up because:
1) I can’t say no to this 2) I can’t say no to @acweyand 3) Last time we did this (#HCWvsHunger, Team #FeedalizumabGiveocin), I didn’t shower or even sleep almost at all for 4d.
But also… 2/X
This was coming at a really bad time because in the last week:
1) My out of warranty iMac on which I depend had just permanently died. 2) My car on which I depend had just permanently died (& p.s. it’s impossible to find a 🚗 now: bit.ly/3DlS5oD).
3/X #HCWforVaccines
Thread: An example of why we are struggling in the US to complete #COVIDVaccination of the willing but not yet #vaccinated people. I made appts for my 12-15 yr old kids. Like many busy parents, we’d prefer the predictability of an appt over walking up with an uncertain wait. /1
I tried several sites until i found one with open appts. The vaccine confirmation I received said to make sure I have a full tank of gas due to waits of an hour or more. With an appt. And there’s a gas shortage on the E. coast. Will people risk having no gas to go to work, etc?
The confirmation also said “you need to bring your govt-issued identification card to the appt” to #GetVaccinated. These appts are for kids <16. What govt issued ID card is this referring to? And for whom-the kid? The parent? No clue. Who do I ask? 🤷🏻♀️Confused parents may no show.
Every day I look at #COVID19 deaths in my own county. The number is always small. I can picture that number of people. I allow myself to imagine their last days, sit with the likelihood of their suffering, their regrets, their fear
/1
I have watched a lot of people die. I have tried desperately to save some. I have sat quietly with others who have asked us to stop & let them die peacefully. I have declared people dead. It’s a fact of being a doctor. It’s a fact of being an oncologist. So I can picture it.
/2
What I cannot picture is nearly 500,000 in the 🇺🇸 dead. It’s a 767 airplane full of Americans crashing every single day between now and 2028. It’s about 11 full Camden Yards stadiums. I can calculate it, but I still cannot picture it.
/3
Time for some #biostats. Here's how I talk about risk reduction w/ pts in #oncology clinic. If someone says, there's a 50% reduction in the risk, you need to know if they're talking about relative risk or absolute risk. #COVID19#MedEd
Tweet #2: I explain relative & absolute risk using coupons. A 50% off coupon on a $1 candy bar is worth 50 cents. A 50% off coupon on a $20,000 car is worth $10,000. If you don't know the starting cost (or in med, the absolute risk), you don't know how valuable 50% off is. #MedEd
Tweet 3: "50%⬇️ in risk" headlines usually mean⬇️in relative risk. To calculate # of ppl needed to treat to benefit 1, you divide 1 by the absolute⬇️in risk. Here, ppl WITHOUT the med had a 2 in 100K (0.002%) risk. Ppl WITH the med had a 1 in 100K (0.001%) risk. #BioStats#MedEd