1/ Here's my 2022 and beyond #investing outlook (mostly covering #stocks) and general thoughts on the #macro backdrop, #markets, #valuations and #risk. Lot's of good analysis is publicly available, so will try to keep this brief and different.
"Navigating the Low Tide"
"Navigating the Low Tide"
2/ Investing 101
3/ Investing 201?
4/ How’s that Working Out Lately?...
5/ “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
- Warren Buffet
- Warren Buffet
6/ Since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Investors have Benefitted from a Rising Tide of Liquidity
7/ As well as Accelerating Flows into Passive Products
8/ Which have Tilted Equity Markets Toward Majority Valuation Agnostic Ownership
9/ Price Insensitive Investing has Unsurprisingly Lifted Large-Cap U.S. Stock Valuations
10/ Flows into Products Constructed by Market Cap Lead to Market Caps Detaching from Earnings: By Design, the Big Get Bigger
11/ But Recent Inflows are Unlikely Sustainable
13/ If Liquidity Made Everyone a Genius, Then Tightening Financial Conditions
15/ Reminder: As Valuations Rise, Investing Gets Harder
17/ Yet Retail Investors Maintain Rosy Outlooks
18/ Even Great Companies can be Bad Purchases at the Wrong Price and Valuation
19/ How Many Waited 16 Years for MSFT’s Recovery? And how Many Actually Bought During its Trough?
20/ When the Consensus Gets Crowded, it’s Usually a Good Idea to Think Independently
21/ Picture the Market and Valuations in Gartner “Hype Cycle” Terms
22/ Innovation Trigger through Peak Expectations
23/ Trough of Disillusionment
24/ Slope of Enlightenment through Plateau
25/ If We’ve Passed Peak Liquidity, What are Some Ideas with Undemanding Expectations?
26/ The Growing Electrification of Industry has Yet to Electrify U.S. Utility Stocks
27(a)/ Despite Scientific Advances, Biotech had a Bad Year; Even Worse for AAV Gene Therapy Firms
28/ We’ve Overconsumed, Overinvested in and Overvalued Stuff We Simply Want, Relative to Stuff We Really Need
29/ Conventional Energy CapEx has Declined Below Replacement Requirements – Even in a Rapid Transition Scenario
30/ We’ve also Underinvested in Industrial Metals
32/ Defense Stock Valuations Don’t Reflect Global Instability: Part 1
33/ Defense Stock Valuations Don’t Reflect Global Instability: Part 2
34/ Global Defense Spending to GDP is Low, but Rising
36/ If Videogames are Central to the Metaverse, they Don’t Trade Like it
37/ Plenty More Examples, but Main Point is: If the Tide is Going Out, Being Passively Long the S&P 5(00) May Not Provide the Most Attractive Risk/Return Profile
39/ If the Tide is Going Out, the Extreme Froth in Long Duration Growth is Unlikely to Respond Well to a Fed Tightening Cycle
40/ A Lot has Changed in the Past 18 Months Since High-Risk Growth Went Vertical
41/ 2022 Reminder: Just as the Best Returns Rarely are Consensus Longs, the Biggest Risks Rarely are the Most Expected Problems
43/ And Figure Out Your Investing Horizon
44/ As Always, Please Reach Out to Discuss Markets and How We May be Able to Work Together Managing Portfolios.
Hope Everyone has Great Holidays and Happy New Year!
*See Below Disclosures
Hope Everyone has Great Holidays and Happy New Year!
*See Below Disclosures
45/ For a PDF Version of this Thread, Please See the Below Link to My Post on LinkedIn
*It also Includes Source Attributions on Each Slide
linkedin.com/posts/stuart-l…
*It also Includes Source Attributions on Each Slide
linkedin.com/posts/stuart-l…
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