Short thread:
Gien the comments I received on this post from those who are religiously bullish, it is clear that they do not know ABCs of Saudi spare capacity. So here we go: 1- Spare capacity is intended only for emergencies. The short period of high production is by DESIGN.
2- The short periods of high production were a function of oil demand. Has nothing to do with the inability to sustain production. Once demand declined, there was no reason to continue producing at a high level.
Maintaining spare capacity is what gives KSA power in the market.
3- Where is spare capacity located? ALL over. They constantly rotate production. Doubting Saudi spare capacity by asking which fields have the spare capacity shows the ignorance of the person making the challenge. Do not be one! #OOTT#oil
4- The informed ones can make the case for crude quality. But even then, we still have about 1.3 mb/d of desired oil by global refiners in normal circumstances. If things are really tight, high sulfur heavy oil can be marketed to certain refiners. #Crude_Quality_Matters
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Thread on #OPEC meeting #OOTT 1- This forthcoming OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday is going to be held under the biggest political crisis since OPEC+ has been initiated.
The optimal outcome is a short meeting where they stick to the plan unless Russia wants to increase production.
2- If it was not for the Russian-Ukrain issue, one would argue for an increase in the group's ceiling, which ultimately means higher production by those who can increase production. In a sense, it legitimizes these increases.
But that comes with a risk of angering some members
3- The increase can be justified by curbing a sharp rise in oil prices. Saudis can also justify adding the voluntary cuts that they made in the past. After all, the planned increases were eliminated or reduced in the past, now they can use the same logic, but in reverse. #OOTT
Thread on the most important events in the oil market in 2021: 1- What constitutes an important event?
An event that is NOT common, different from the past, & sometimes different from the prevailing conventional wisdom that has ramifications on several fronts & for years to come
2- That immediately excludes many of the expected trends: increasing prices, production, demand, rigs, revenues, profits, stock prices, etc. It also excludes The Biden Administration's requests for OPEC to increase production and the use of the SPR. #Oil#OOTT#OPEC
3- The most important event in 2021 with a significant impact on oil market balances in 2021 & beyond is the change in #oil market structure & the role of OPEC+ leaders in global energy markets & climate negotiations. That changed the economics and the politics of the oil market.
Thread: General comments & forecasts for the global oil market in 2022. Constructive comments are welcome. If comments don't fit your books, just ignore them.
1-13 The oil market will be tighter than forecasts, especially relative to OPEC’s forecast. No major inventory build.
2- The biggest surprise might come from increased demand for oil in the oil-producing countries themselves. That is a double-edged sword; BULLISH.
On the other side, if #COVID19 & its varients come back with vengeance: lockdowns, inventory build, etc.. OPEC+ is expected to react
3- Average oil prices for 2022 will be higher than that of 2021, but prices will be range-bound, even when China refills its SPR.
No $100 oil under normal circumstances. Possible under certain conditions. #Oil#OPEC#OOTT#China
Thread on why I am bullish on oil in the long run:
1- In all outlooks, the largest decrease in global oil demand comes from the massively improved efficiency in ICE vehicles. That is massively exaggerated.
3- The outlooks ignore the global shift in consumer taste from small cars to crossovers, SUVs, and trucks.
4- All those who are bearish on oil are looking at a static picture. The world is dynamic. If oil prices collapse, oil will be too cheap to ignore by all groups.#oil#OPEC
5- The outlooks ignore the new consumers of energy as they did in the past with Bitcoin and data centers. That creates competition for electricity, and that leads to fuel switching and private generation. #Bitcoin#Datacenters
Thread 1- While #Iran as a country will benefit from lifting the sanctions, influential elements within the regime, along with certain influential groups in neighboring countries, will lose. Hence the opposition & the slow response. It is corruption & money, not politics. #OOTT
2- The US and its allies will commit a big mistake if they go to the negotiations at the end of this month with the logical arguments on how Iran as a country will benefit. I was surprised to learn yesterday that some democrats think Iran doesn't export oil because of sanctions!
3- US allies in the Gulf have no interest in such negotiations because they do not see any benefits.
It will be a big mistake on the part of the Biden Administration if it ignores this point: How to align the interests of Gulf states with the interest of the US.
2- Demand is NOT higher than “supply”. Several media outlets and analysts are confusing “supply” with “production”.
US crude oil inventories increased by about 20 mb in recent weeks. They are about 40 mb above the level that would support a bullish case.
3- It takes months for additional crude production to appear in the market as gasoline. The US problem is in the refining sector, not only because of recent hurricanes but also because of chronic problems and heavy regulations. #oil#OOTT