Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread on why I am bullish on oil in the long run:

1- In all outlooks, the largest decrease in global oil demand comes from the massively improved efficiency in ICE vehicles. That is massively exaggerated.

2- Do the numbers! The impact of #ElectricVehicles is exaggerated!

3- The outlooks ignore the global shift in consumer taste from small cars to crossovers, SUVs, and trucks.

4- All those who are bearish on oil are looking at a static picture. The world is dynamic. If oil prices collapse, oil will be too cheap to ignore by all groups.#oil #OPEC

5- The outlooks ignore the new consumers of energy as they did in the past with Bitcoin and data centers. That creates competition for electricity, and that leads to fuel switching and private generation.
#Bitcoin #Datacenters

6- The outlooks ignore the fact that liberalization of the natural gas markets and delinking LNG and oil means oil will be cheaper anyway. Just look at what happened in recent months. #OIl #LNG #OOTT

7- Outlooks ignore policymakers reactions to:
a- Depleted fuel tax revenues
b- Threats to national security as carbon neutrality increases dependence on other countries for materials & technology
3- Threats to the environment for lack of disposal of toxic waste of "green" energy

8- For oil demand to remain at 100 mb/d in 2050, we need 700 million electric cars (actual cars) or more, on the roads around the world, with the historic rate of improvement of fuel economy remaining the same for ICE vehicles.
#OOTT #OIl #ElectricVehicles

9- The increase in the number of non-ICE vehicles (Electric, Hybrid, Hydrogen, CNG, and LN) and improvement in fuel economy of ICE will eat into global oil demand GROWTH, but NOT demand. That means global oil demand will continue to grow but at a declining rate.

10 - This is the strongest point on why I am bullish on oil: As mentioned in the past, whatever the demand for oil will be in 2050, .... any amount, has to come from fresh oil! If you are not familiar with this point, read about "decline rates"! #oil #OOTT

11- Here is the second strongest point on why I am bullish on oil: very few people believe in the ideas above. Banks & investors will shy away. Governments & companies will invest less in oil exploration as they drink the Koolaid of the energy transition to low carbon economy

12- When it comes to carbon neutrality, everyone will go for the low-hanging fruits. Everything else is an accounting gimmick!

Politicians, especially in the West, will do whatever to prevent energy shortages. Staying in office comes first, carbon neutrality comes last.

13- Any political change in Europe or the US can derail climate change efforts.
The problem is, even if climate change ideas are all correct, the politicization of the issues & the enforcement against people's will means the other side will go against it anyway #CLIMATE

14- #13 above is pretty interesting because it changes everything I said above: such development will mitigate the forthcoming energy crisis since it will increase investment in oil and gas! #Oil #Natgas #LNG #Climate

15- Divistmnet from oil & gas is the most damaging to climate change: you have a say as long as you are at the table. Divestment has no impact on global emissions since the assets are there anyway.
Impact? Less money is available to expand oil production even when time is right!

16- Final point: read 13-15 again... they mean that in a few years, the damage would be done anyway even if political systems flip and they become pro-oil. We will experience oil shortages anyway.

The above is the conclusion of a 4-hour presentation.
#oil #OOTT #OPEC #Shale