Thread by @jseldin

HAPPENING NOW: US National Security Adviser @JakeSullivan46 briefs reporters on #Russia-#Ukraine

"We are in the window where an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it" he says

Possible #Russia invasion of #Ukraine - "I do want to be clear" per @JakeSullivan46 "It could begin during the olympics despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after"

"We are ready either way" per @JakeSullivan46 on possible #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

US "ready to respond decisively" alongside allies, partners should Russia choose to take military action" he says

"It would include continued support to #Ukraine"

"If #Russia proceeds, its long-term power & influence will be diminished, not enhanced" per @JakeSullivan46

"It will face a more determined transAtlantic community. It will have to make more concessions to #China. It's will face massive pressure on its economy..."

"...& export controls that will erode its defense industrial base" per @JakeSullivan46

Bcs of #Russia's actions, "The West is more united than it's been un years" per @JakeSullivan46 "@NATO has been strengthened. The alliance is more cohesive, more purposeful, more dynamic..."

"We encourage all American citizens who remain in Ukraine to depart immediately" per @JakeSullivan46

"Leave as soon as possible...in the next 24-48 hours" he says "This is what prudence demands"

"If a #Russia|n attack on #Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing & missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians" per @JakeSullivan46 "A subsequent ground invasion would involve the onslaught of a massive force..."

"It is the time to leave now while commercial options and commercial rail and air service exists, while the roads are open" per @JakeSullivan46

re US citizens being told to leave #Ukraine

What's changed w/US assessment of #Russia decision-making?

"If you look at the disposition of forces ... The Russians are in position to be able to mount a major military action in #Ukraine any day now" per @JakeSullivan46

"I want to be clear-we are not saying that a decision, a final decision has been taken by Pres. Putin" per @JakeSullivan46 "What we are saying is that we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we are seeing on the ground & what our intelligence analysts have picked up"

Deployments of US troops to #Poland #Romania #Germany - "these are not soldiers who are being sent to go fight #Russia in #Ukraine" per @JakeSullivan46

"They are not going to war in Ukraine...they are going to defend @NATO territory"

US forces remain on standby if @NATO decides to activate to the NATO Response Force" per @JakeSullivan46

"I can't get inside the head of President Putin" per @JakeSullivan46

"All I will say is that we are ready either way"

"The way that he has built up his forces & put them in place, along w/the other indicators that we have collected thru intelligence makes it clear to us that there is a very distinct possibility that #Russia will choose to act militarily..." per @JakeSullivan46

#Russia invasion into #Ukraine - "...There is reason to believe that that could happen in a reasonably swift timeframe" per @JakeSullivan46

"The intelligence community has sufficient confidence that I can stand before you today & say what I have said, which is that there is a distinct that Vladimir would order a military action, an invasion of #Ukraine in this window" - before olympics end, per @JakeSullivan46

One possible course of action for #Russia "is a rapid assault on the city of Kyiv" per @JakeSullivan46 "That is a possible line of attack...they could also choose to move in other parts of #Ukraine as well"

"We are firmly convinced that the #Russia|ns, should they decide to move forward w/an invasion are looking hard at the creation of a pretext, a false flag operation...as a trigger" per @JakeSullivan46

"We are calling that out publicly bcs we do blv that if #Russia chooses to do that [false flag op], they should be held to account" per @JakeSullivan46 "The world shud not blv that a false flag operation that they created is a legitimate casus beli for going into #Ukraine"

"Our view is that we do not believe that he has made any kind of final decision" per @JakeSullivan46 on Putin and #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

"Or, we don't know that he has made any final decision, and we have not communicated that to anybody"

"Very distinct possibility" Putin will order an invasion of #Ukraine, per @JakeSullivan46

per @JakeSullivan46, @POTUS likely to engage w/#Russia's Vladimir Putin but noting scheduled

Q'd on intelligence, "We are talking about more than 100,000 #Russia|n troops amassed along the #Ukrainian border w/every capacity out there in the open for ppl to see" per @JakeSullivan46

"You can believe your own eyes that the #Russia|ns have put in place the capabilities to conduct a massive military operation vs #Ukraine" per @JakeSullivan46

#Russia invasion of #Ukraine-"There are very real possibilities that it will involve the seizure of a significant of territory ... including the capital city" per @JakeSullivan46

#China-#Russia - "To the extent that they [#Beijing] are giving a wink & a nod or a green light to a Russian invasion of #Ukraine...I blv that China will ultimately come to suffer consequences in the eyes of the rest of the world" per @JakeSullivan46

Also, "We do not blv that #China can compensate #Russia for the losses that would be sustained in the event of an invasion due to sanctions & export controls" per @JakeSullivan46