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Andreas Umland Profile picture
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26 Dec, 4 tweets, 7 min read
1. Most #Ukrainian and #German experts interviewed for this investigation do not expect that a transit of power in Moscow will lead to an improvement of #Russia's relations to #Ukraine:
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
@prismUA @EESRIorg @fes_russia @FESonline @FES_Europa @FESnewsbrief
2. While being a #German living in #Ukraine, I find myself, in contrast, in agreement with most #Russian experts who were polled in this #expertsurvey and who think that a change of leadership would have positive repercussions for Russian-#Ukrainian #relations.
@Konflikt_Sicher
3. Many thanks to #MarcelRöthig and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, and @MaksymKhylko of the Foreign Policy Council "#UkrainianPrism"​ for this excellent study!
library.fes.de/pdf-files/buer…
CC: @TerekMedia @NEC_Ukraine @ukraineoffice @UkrVerstehen @post_ukrainian @H__Ukraine @ACEurasia
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
24 Dec
NOTHING PERSONAL? STRICTLY BUSINESS?
1/3: At first glance, these Russian company appointments look like commercial strategy. They, it seems, belong to the PRIVATE life of retired Western politicians who get remunerated for some Russian lobbying at home. Fishy, but understandable.
2/3: Yet, the example of #GerhardSchröder's role for the #Kremlin in Germany indicates that the appointments are part of a Russian GEOPOLITICAL strategy. It would be therefore of interest what position the POLITICAL homes of these Western politicians take.
3/3: Since the companies, the politicians work for are parts or clients of the Russian state, the parties where the politicians remain influential, like the #SPD, #LesRepublicains etc, turn into frameworks of Moscow's foreign affairs. Is that desirable, permissible, tolerable...?
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
22 Dec
Thread with a brief comment on today's #MH17 indictment:
1. Although the four men indicted belong in jail, this charge is absurd: The Russian army as a rent-a-rocket company where you can order complex high-tech arms over the phone? @SCEEUS_UI
military.com/daily-news/202…
2. Russian soldiers who are taking orders from irregular fighters with no military rank or position, driving on their own into a foreign country, and privately hitting the button to launch a rather expensive, deadly weapon? @JITMH17 @MH17Crime @mh17report @MH17Live @CourtMH17
3. A state-of-the-art Russian anti-aircraft missile shooting down an airplane at an altitude of 10 kilometers because a retired Russian war veteran, #IgorGirkin, on unofficial foreign duty simply wished it so?
@raamoprusland @nrc @DutchMFA @ukraine_world @LawUkrainian @Politie
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
22 Dec
#MH17
1. Obwohl die vier Männer ins Gefängnis gehören, ist diese Anklage absurd: Die russische Armee als eine Rent-a-Rocket-Firma, bei der man per Telefon hochkomplexe High-Tech-Waffen bestellen kann? tagesschau.de/ausland/europa…
2. Russische Soldaten, die von irregulären Kämpfern ohne Dienststellung und -rang Befehle entgegen nehmen und mal eben den Abschussknopf zum Start eines teuren, tödlichen Untensils drücken? @Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @RusVerstehen @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg
3. Eine hochmoderne russische Flugabwehrrakete, die ein Flugzeug in 10 Kilometer Höhe abschießt, weil ein pensionierter Kriegsveteran, Igor Girkin, in inoffiziellem Auslandseinsatz sich das so gewünscht hat? 😕 @JITMH17 @MH17Crime @mh17report @MH17Live @mh17research @CourtMH17
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
1 Dec
1. Kurzkommentar für @BILD: Die beängstigende Lehre früherer russischer #Gebietsexpansionen in #Georgien & der #Ukraine ist, dass der innenpolitische Gewinn solcher Abenteuer hoch ist, während die aussenwirtschaftlichen Kosten sich in Grenzen halten.
bild.de/politik/auslan…
2. Sowohl 2008 bei der faktischen Annexion der georgischen Regionen #Abchasien und #Zchinwali als auch 2014 bei der juristischen #Annexion der #Krim stieg die Ablehnung des Westens bzw. Popularität Putins steil an, und die westlichen Sanktionen waren milde.
3. Die im Sommer 2014 verhängten sektoralen EU-#Sanktionen waren weniger eine Antwort auf die russische verdeckte Intervention in der #Ostukraine, als eine Bestrafung für den Tod von über 200 EU-BürgerInnen, d.h. der Passagiere des Fluges #MH17, über dem #Donezbecken.
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
26 Nov
1. Sad to watch #Шустер today: While the Kremlin is amassing troops at the border of Ukraine, its political elite is drowning in a scandal around the aborted operation to catch 33 members of the notorious Wagner PMC.
2. The underlying assumption is that:
(a) the arrest of 33 Russian experienced and ruthless #mercenaries in a passenger plane would have been a successful operation with no collateral damage and civilian victims, as well as that
3. (b) such a successful operation would not have had led to a major escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, or other negative repercussions, such as a debate about the admissibility of secret operations endangering foreign civilians.
Perhaps.
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
24 Nov
1, #Germany's new government's #coalitionagreement of the @SPDbt, @Die_Gruenen and @FDP, on the #EuropeanEunion's #EasternNeighborhood: "We are working together with the #EU and its member states on the further development of the #EasternPartnership.
2. States such as #Ukraine, #Moldova & #Georgia, which are striving to join the EU, should be able to move closer through consistent rule-of-law and market-economy reforms. We will react decisively and reliably to democratic upheavals and be a partner to the democracy movements.
3. We want to facilitate civil society exchanges through targeted visa facilitation. We will continue to support Ukraine in restoring full territorial integrity and sovereignty. @UkrVerstehen @H__Ukraine @PromoteUkraine @NEC_Ukraine @intercourier_ua @UaPosition @CPD_UA @gazeta_ua
Read 15 tweets

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