1. #Russia now still controlls less or not much more than 20% of #Ukrainian territory. When, in 2008, Russia captured 20% of #Georgia's territory, no economic sanctions whatsoever were applied. Instead, Russian-Western relations IMPROVED after Russia's 5-day war and occupation.
2. As Medvedev's short speech at the public Russian Security Council meeting last week indicated, the Kremlin's decision to officially invade Ukraine was based on Russia's 2008 experience as well as subsequent developments, & on an assumption of consistency in Western behaviour.
3. The 2014 #sanctions imposed for the annexation of #Crimea & intervention in #Donbas have been mild & manageable for Russia. The most significant EU sanctions adopted on 29 July 2014 were an obvious response to #Russia's downing of #MH17 rather than invasion of #Ukraine itself.
4. Had the Kremlin assumed in advance that the now adopted Western "monster sanctions" are likely, its strategic planning may well have been different. The aim of regime survival would have trumped any other goals. Yet, now massive sanctions are approved & will kick in soon.
5. Sticking to and implementing into practice the West’s proclaimed principles in its reaction to aggressive #Russian foreign behaviour in 2008 and 2014 would have not only been more ethical. It would have also been clearer to & more useful for all sides - including the #Kremlin.
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