Thread by @SamRamani2

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been largely out of step with public opinion

The rally around the flag effect that Vladimir Putin enjoyed after the 2014 Crimea annexation is unlikely to repeat itself

In this thread, I explain why

A majority of Russians consistently believe that Ukraine, the US and NATO were the aggressors in Donbas

However, support for a military intervention to back Donetsk and Luhansk separatists is low

Just 43% of Russians back a war for this purpose (2021 Levada Center data)

Anti-Westernism has also ebbed considerably in Russia

From 2014-2021, positive views of the United States soared from 12% to 45%

The EU's image has improved in a similar fashion

Western sanctions have not ebbed support for Vladimir Putin, as they are deemed to have a marginal impact on daily life

66% of Russians are unconcerned, while just 46% of Russians believe that sanctions harm the public more than elites

Support for the forceful reintegration of Ukraine and Russia is also low

Just 36% believe Russia and Ukraine should be united by force, and only 50% back attacking Ukraine to keep it out of NATO

The belief that Russians and Ukrainians are one people does not mean backing war

The most popular kind of military intervention for Russia is a short-term police mission rather than a high-cost war

The CSTO intervention in Kazakhstan, which has a 67% approval rating, is the type of mission Russians prefer

To summarize, Putin's denigration of Ukrainian sovereignty has its adherents in Russia

But the consequences of war, such as extreme sanctions and a collapse of Russia-West relations, and low support for its objectives could dampen Putin's popularity