Thread by @Ric_Alcaro

In my latest for @IAIonline and @joint_project I reflect on the supposed transformation of the #EU into a geopolitical actor following its response to the #UkraineWar
Thread👇
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1) The EU has
- contributed to making Russia's economy toxic by way of sanctions and other restrictions;
- neutralized migration flows as a potential trouble spot by offering refuge to Ukrainians;
- given Ukraine military aid

2) The EU has thus shown significant geopolitical power, which may further grow thanks to #Germany's massive re-armament. However, there are limits to its transformation into a full geopolitical player

3) The first is the war itself. If, or when, the war becomes more brutal, the EU (like the #US) will be caught between two equally strong but conflicting logics: ratchet up the pressure (and military aid to Ukraine) and avoid an escalation between #Russia and #NATO

4) The EU's strategy does not go beyond pressure on Moscow + assistance to Kyiv. How to deal with a Russian government that has turned the authoritarian screw on its people manifold is harder now that the EU has wrapped itself in the ideological mantle of defender of democracy

5) The second limit concerns the sustainability of the sanctions regime, especially if the EU were to opt for reducing its oil and gas imports from Russia. Should the war drag on until the autumn, the Union may struggle to secure alternative energy supplies

The third limit is the EU’s reliance on the US. European cohesion has originated from continuous consultation and coordination with a staunchly Atlanticist US administration.Biden’s popularity has been sagging for months though...

7)... If the Republicans – many coming from the Trumpian camp – were to win control of Congress in November, the transatlantic pillar of EU cohesion would weaken. That pillar may crumble altogether if Trump or someone like him were to win the White House in 2024

8) The fourth limit concerns the absolute exceptionality of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The stakes are so high that EU member states have had greater incentives to close ranks. But this has hardly been the case in the past and will hardly be the case in the future