1/ Fear of Russia has guided every single policy error and every single mistake of the West towards Moscow since 1999. Every close observer of the Chekist Regime has counterfactuals in mind. 2nd Chechen War non-reaction, Georgia War non-reaction, Crimea "surprise"...
2/ Energy "mutual dependence", and our favourite mistake since 2014, "escalation dominance". This is a controlled 20-year trajectory which has ensured impunity for the Chekist Regime's worst crimes, because the worst crimes always come with the manufacture of a high dose of fear.
3/ Responses to the Chekist threat are thus always an order of magnitude lower than what would be required. With a full-scale war of aggression on a European neighbour, we still reasoned mainly in terms of sanctions. That was not enough, and Moscow went in anyway.
4/ But as Ukrainian resistance heroically demonstrates, killing Russian invaders and demolishing their equipment reduces threats and slows down the enemy. Just imagine what could be done with more force. The forces of the dictator could be broken. They can be broken.
5/ There is not much the Chekist Regime could do if its entire invasion force in Ukraine were destroyed. They are outside their territory and vulnerable. This is an opportunity to break the aggressor's forces and punish aggression in the eyes of the world.
6/ Intervention in other words should be viewed as a real opportunity, not to be feared but to be seized. Russia might escalate of course, but we should understand that is a permanent threat, not dependent on our wise moderation but on opportunity and greed as seen from Moscow.
7/ Courage breeds opportunity and the words of aggressors should not sway us. Russia is weak now, dangerously exposed and stretched militarily. Western policy should now aim at intervention. How exactly I leave to others. Covert or overt, on land, at sea, in the air -
8/ As Ukrainian resistance proves, Russia's escalation dominance is limited. It has the ability to invoke Mutually Assured Destruction, but conventionally Russia can be made to lose. The alternative would be catastrophic and far more costly.
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