Kyle Orton Profile picture
Mar 13 8 tweets 4 min read
Nobody - not one single person on this earth - knows with any accuracy what the state of #Russian public opinion is about #Putin's war on #Ukraine, so arguments and commentary that blame for this on the Russian people are analytical junk, as well as morally suspect.
There's no reason to deny there *is* support for Putin's war in Russia: some of it positive/ideological (pan-Slavists, Orthodox believers, regime loyalists), some of it "negative", from people who cannot support the killing of Russian soldiers and/or the nation being defeated.
Note, however, there are severe penalties in #Russia for the expression of dissent against this war, and *even so* there have been mass demonstrations across the whole country, with thousands of people arrested, and open elite dissatisfaction even on the main propaganda channel.
Note, too, as highlighted by Alexey @Navalny and many other oppositionists and liberals: #Russian public opinion - like all public opinion - is not static, and is quite malleable, especially once there has been time for facts about this war to break through the regime's bubble.
It is not that it *cannot* be true #Russians in their majority support #Putin's war: Russians themselves are some of the most concerned about this possibility (e.g. ). But there is simply no way of knowing that answer right now, or how lasting any answer is
In summary:
1) We do not know what the state of Russian public opinion is
2) Such opinion is not fixed
3) There are strong indications of deep, widespread opposition to Putin's war
4) Have a little respect for the Russians taking such risks, rather than condemning them from afar
There would be no way to trust these numbers even if they were measured in good faith - #Russians know at this moment how dangerous it is to express opposition to this war - but in this case good money says these figures are simply propaganda inventions

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More from @KyleWOrton

Mar 14
Catherine Shakdam, a French-British journalist who wrote numerous articles for the website of #Iran's Supreme Leader, is of Jewish ancestry (which they didn't know) and wrote an article for The @TimesofIsrael, led her being accused of being an #Israeli spy iranintl.com/en/202203136114
#pt: Catherine Shakdam, a Jewish French-British journalist who was a propagandist for #Iran, says she "realize[d] ... there was a ... great hypocrisy" in the regime, and in combination with its call "for genocide of an entire people", it turned her against the theocracy.
Catherine Shakdam, who converted to Khomeinist Islam, about five years ago reconnected with her Jewish roots, but continued working for #Iran's media and interacting with the regime's senior officials, until she "came out" in November 2021. timesofisrael.com/im-no-mossad-s…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
#Iran has carried out a rather substantial attack in Iraqi #Kurdistan while all eyes are on the Iranians' #Russian allies are attacking #Ukraine.
Footage from #Iran's attack on the #US Consulate in #Iraq's northern Kurdistan region
Re #Iran framing this attack on the #US in Iraqi Kurdistan as an attack on #Israel
Read 12 tweets
Feb 21
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says Amnesty report accusing Israel of apartheid was deeply flawed, misrepresenting the situation of Arab Israelis, and pressing an ideological point rather than saying what needs fixing. timesofisrael.com/amnestys-israe…
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says she agrees with the criticism of Amnesty for the report accusing Israel of "apartheid" in being too monomaniacal in its target; "it stands out, it has been exaggerated."
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel: "I also have a problem with Amnesty International's approach on antisemitism. Amnesty is supposed to fight antisemitism. It does, but not enough, and sometimes I feel that it needs to be pressured into action."
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
Made a mess of these threads. Integrating them here
#Ukraine's President Zelensky said a few hours ago he is still going to Germany tomorrow for the Munich Security Conference. Whether this is supposed to promote calm or what is unclear; it's a hell of a time for him to leave his capital.
President #Biden just said in his White House address that the US believes the #Russians will invade #Ukraine in the next few days and "they will target Ukraine's capital, Kiev". Image
Read 1414 tweets
Jan 21
#Russia's government not being very subtle about how this is going to go with #Ukraine: a provocation will be staged and the Russians will claim to be acting in self-defence when they invade, while screaming about 'Western false-flag operations'.
Integrating this thread from Feb. 11 here
Read 431 tweets
Jan 14
US intelligence believes #Russia is preparing to stage a false flag incident to justify its initiation of hostilities in #Ukraine. Been a lot of signs for months that Moscow was plotting provocation to ignite this.
#Russia's representative to international organisations in Vienna. At this stage, Moscow isn't even trying as it prepares its provocation to begin the offensive in #Ukraine.
I think we'd all worked out the Russian script that far, but all the same nice to know NATO has, too.
Read 158 tweets

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