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Jan 14 • 158 tweets • 88 min read
US intelligence believes #Russia is preparing to stage a false flag incident to justify its initiation of hostilities in #Ukraine. Been a lot of signs for months that Moscow was plotting provocation to ignite this.
#Russia's representative to international organisations in Vienna. At this stage, Moscow isn't even trying as it prepares its provocation to begin the offensive in #Ukraine.
I think we'd all worked out the Russian script that far, but all the same nice to know NATO has, too.
Russian provocations continue
#Russia's government not being very subtle about how this is going to go with #Ukraine: a provocation will be staged and the Russians will claim to be acting in self-defence when they invade, while screaming about 'Western false-flag operations'.
Integrating this thread from Feb. 11 here
#Britain removing the few forces it had in #Ukraine
The #Americans removing everything in #Ukraine
Hardly news to anyone following but there it is in black and white: the best information our governments have is that #Russia is days away from tearing up the post-Cold War order and will ignite it with some kind of provocation. thetimes.co.uk/article/briton… Image
#pt
#pt
Be interesting to compare the read-outs of this ...
#Canada has "temporarily" closed its embassy in Kyiv and moved operations to Lviv in the far west of #Ukraine
#Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey says the RAF will "not be in a position to go in" to #Ukraine to get British citizens out once #Russia invades, so people should "leave now". The new advice is b/c the Russians are now in position to attack "at no notice". — @BBCNews
#pt
#US intelligence looking at Wednesday as the go day for #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Made a mess of these threads. Integrating them here
#Ukraine's President Zelensky said a few hours ago he is still going to Germany tomorrow for the Munich Security Conference. Whether this is supposed to promote calm or what is unclear; it's a hell of a time for him to leave his capital.
President #Biden just said in his White House address that the US believes the #Russians will invade #Ukraine in the next few days and "they will target Ukraine's capital, Kiev". Image
#Biden in his speech minutes ago said: "As of this moment, I’m convinced [#Putin has] made the decision [to invade #Ukraine]. I have reason to believe that."

This follows the leaked assessment yesterday that #Britain had come to this conclusion, too.
#pt
#pt
#Russia moved 70+% of its military to surround #Ukraine, while Vladimir Putin made impossible demands and publicly mused on Ukraine being a fake state that properly belongs to Russia. It did not stop the too-clever-by-half explanations of what was happening.
The time of the propaganda games has passed
This too 👇🏻
The destabilisation phase ahead of #Russia's full-scale invasion of #Ukraine is well underway
Have a feeling if we ever get the papers it will turn out the #Kosovo (and more general Jugoslav) dimension to #Putin's thinking as he decided on this invasion of #Ukraine was much greater than the coverage would suggest.
No let up: #Russia claiming a shelling by #Ukraine near where the Donbas evacuees - "refugees" from genocide, in the telling of the Kremlin - are based
#Russia's man in Donetsk announces a mobilisation, suggesting war is very close at hand in eastern #Ukraine
Luhansk, the #Russian-occupied "republic" in eastern #Ukraine, has begun mobilising. #Russia's other puppet republic in the Donbas, Donetsk, mobilised a short while ago.
It's all just so ... pathetic. The (blatantly fake) car bombing yesterday afternoon, the pipe explosion last night, and now this? That's the "genocide" threat to the Donbas that Putin is going to say justifies his invasion of Ukraine?
#Russian forces killed a #Ukrainian soldier in the east this morning, it seems. Meanwhile, the Russians are claiming their territory has been attacked (see: m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202221910…)
It has to be granted that the #Biden administration has done everything it can to remove #Russia's pretexts for this attack on #Ukraine. If the Biden people's strategy was based on a belief the messaging would deter Putin, though, that's more troublesome.
The #EU institutionally has not performed well during the #Ukraine crisis and its leading member states, particularly Germany, did much worse individually. Now this. (The Baltic states did much better, and Poland, which is about to be on the front line.)
Thread 👇🏻 Supposed evidence from the impact site, where #Ukraine shelled #Russian territory in the Rostov area at about 4 AM local time

[It's nearly midday in Moscow, so this is eight hours ago, though only reported in the last hour.]
All of this focus on Minsk has been so overdone. Putin might have accepted Ukraine's capitulation on the point in the summer of 2021, after the first military buildup, as sufficient to obviate the need for war. Not by the November 2021 buildup, though.
#Ukraine's preparedness is a serious concern. The Kiev leadership all along effectively denied this was going to happen; the hope is that was domestic messaging to avoid panic, but ...
You can see this dynamic in #India, too. Most Indians in their heart of hearts actually *do* know better, at least the officials seem to, but for historic reasons they don't want a public fight with #Russia, so Delhi just keeps quiet.
1/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
2/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
#Russia potentially nearly doubling the number of troops it has brought up to #Ukraine's borders since the end of January
#Russian strategic nuclear exercises was all it needed
#US Defense Secretary says he has seen the same information and Putin has made his decision to invade #Ukraine
Quite cynical for #Germany to cloak itself in its history and claim to be working for "peace" - while refusing to help #Ukraine prevent or hinder a war so as not to piss off a #Russia from which Germany gets its energy
This is among the reasons, incidentally, that the "#Russia doesn't have enough troops to occupy #Ukraine, so Moscow can't be intending anything too major around Kiev" takes are so off the mark. The Kremlin has troops drawn from the Donbas for the east.
Not that #Belarus' "government" could make #Russia's troops leave if it wanted to, but ...
The incompetence of #Russia in preparing these provocations is matched only by the shamelessness of the Putin government: it makes not a jot of difference that everyone (who wants to) knows this is a pre-fabricated excuse for aggression.
#Russia's allies among the elite in #Ukraine leaving; a notable signal, as with the signs of burning documents at the Russian Embassy in Kiev.
Fortunate, really, that the results of these investigations are worked out in advance, or one would be concerned about the overworking of the employees of the Russian legal system.
#Russia committing to the #Ukraine-attacked-us bit
Are we sure he said "no", not "the"?
Unfortunately, this outcome is not in doubt
Re talk of this being a "quagmire" for #Russia in #Ukraine or not being able to stabilise things. Just a reminder that this was all said about #Syria seven years ago, and then as now relied on Western mirror-imaging of Russian concepts of "victory" kyleorton.co.uk/2015/09/30/rus… Image
On we go. An interesting - in no sense surprising, but important nonetheless - aspect @michaelh992 has repeatedly highlighted is the way these "separatist" statements and news items appear in #Russia's state media simultaneously, as in often to the second
Notable: Yulia Latynina, who argued (including in the @nytimes) that #Putin was bluffing over #Ukraine, now says she, too, believes he has made up his mind to go to war.
#NATO moving out of #Ukraine's capital
It's very touchy for foreigners sitting safety to be second-guessing #Ukraine's President at a time like this ... It is nonetheless strange for him to leave his capital right now. The #Russian attack could literally begin at any moment.
#pt
Beyond parody
#Russia's very independent and objective, totally fair and fact-oriented investigation has concluded, after approximately forty-five minutes, that #Ukraine did it - all of it, whatever it was they were asked about.
Further shenanigans to come
Decks being cleared
#pt
The entire evacuation, i.e. creation of a refugee situation, was designed by #Russia to claim these people had been attacked by #Ukraine's army, setting up the pretext for invasion
Total coincidence #Russia makes reporting from eastern #Ukraine more difficult
The Russian Communist Party remains absolutely devoted to breaking down the relationship between words and their meaning
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has a reasonable point
No serious reason to dissent from the #NATO secretary-general
The clock continues to run down toward #Russia's assault on #Ukraine
#pt
Noteworthy
#US intelligence's reach into #Russia has been quite something.
Important to note this from #Australia's Prime Minister: on their own and through Five Eyes, the Australians have better intelligence about #Russia than many European states, certainly than Germany, and frankly than #Ukraine itself.
Sometimes it is what isn't there and what you can't see that is most telling
On the subject of things not seen being the most worrying: #Russia is causing all this trouble in the east of #Ukraine, while being deathly silent in the west - where they will likely attack the capital. Makes tactical surprise more feasible. .
Someone should forward this to the Kremlin so they can see what "encircled state" actually means
#pt
The scale of the violence #Russia orchestrated in eastern #Ukraine yesterday is extraordinary. To call these conditions of "ceasefire" stretches the definition, and that's of course the point, to provoke Kiev into reacting, then using it as a pretext
Officials in the Duma musing (in public) on 21 February as the start date for #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Today's shenanigans from #Russia in the east of #Ukraine
Pravda is "reporting" that #Ukraine is planning an attack on the Russian-occupied #Transnistria zone of Moldova g4media.ro/497221.html
Horrible situation, pointlessly created by #Russia to set up the Kremlin's attack on #Ukraine
All so surprising
We use "the Russians" as a short-hand for the Putin government, and one needn't be too concerned about that. But it is just worth keeping in mind that there are people opposed to this, and some are bravely witnessing for it in direst circumstances
.@trussliz: "[Putin has] been very clear – his ambition doesn't just lead to him taking control of #Ukraine ... The #Baltic states are at risk ... the western #Balkans as well. Putin has said all this publicly". dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
#France has made something of a point of keeping its diplomats in Kiev. See how long that lasts.
Strange, indeed
Comprehensive thread on one of #Russia's false flag efforts 👇🏼
Hope springs eternal. The problem is exactly that Putin would know this would be a loss; highly doubtful he accepts that after getting this far out on a limb. The argument over whether this started as a bluff has been superseded for the same reasons.
Unassailable summary
Difficult to judge the point at which going through the motions of keeping diplomatic channels open becomes collaborating in Russian aggression by maintaining the fiction that this might not happen and using up resources to prepare for it
On the scale of the #Russian build-up
#Ukraine's President apparently sees the "peace process" as the way out of this
Soldiers from #Checnya among #Russia's troops preparing to attack #Ukraine
What a horrible, needless disaster from the #Putin government - and on its "own side", too.
So we're doing this again ...
What can there be left to say?
"The U.S. has intelligence that #Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of #Ukraine, with commanders on the ground making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sectors of the battlefield" - @CBSNews journalist cbsnews.com/news/russia-uk…
#Russia's media behaving roughly as one would expect
#US Defense Secretary says it is "highly likely" #Russia will have tanks on the streets of Kiev, the capital of #Ukraine, and the city could "very quickly" be taken.
#Poland is important to watch: there are tripwires in #Ukraine that if #Russia runs over them, will draw in the Poles, no matter what NATO does.
A very strange note from the #US Embassy warning of possible terrorist attacks in #Russia, in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Lunatic ultra-nationalist member of the State Duma, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, announcing the start date of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
Senior official in #Turkey in effect supports #Russia's position over #Ukraine.
Nearly five hours ago, #Russia shelled one of the "capital" cities in the occupied "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine, intending to blame the Ukrainian government.
#France's President Macron spoke for an hour on the telephone with #Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin - @AFP

To what end ...
The purpose of the official messaging from #Ukraine's government remains baffling.
Again, one does not need the Five Eyes assessments on this: #Ukraine's official statement tonight (only the latest of a consistent theme) about #Russia not being ready to go imminently is visibly, demonstrably wrong
Because of the large analytical chorus that has insisted (some still to) that #Russia will not do this, the messaging from #Ukraine's government effectively saying there is nothing to worry about (and the lack of preparations) hasn't been treated as being as crazy as it really is
The other oddity is #France and #Germany keep calling #Putin and arranging meetings. As best I can tell, the theory is that if they've arranged a conference, Putin can't invade before that date because that would be rude, so if they just keep arranging conferences ... Madness.
#pt The latest one
Not entirely sure threatening Putin that he cannot have a meeting at which he will be begged not to invade Ukraine if he invades Ukraine before the day of the meeting is quite the diplomatic leverage the Europeans and Biden seem to think it is.
During this crisis that might well end with #Russia having #Ukraine back under its control, it has already taken back #Belarus and is consolidating further in #Cuba. Must feel like old times in the Kremlin.
The devastation if #Russia does what it looks as if it is about to in #Ukraine will be of a kind we have not seen in Europe in quite some time.
Seems #Biden has not (yet) accepted the #France-mediated effort for another #US-#Russia meeting on Thursday
The mood seems to be shifting in #Ukraine
The only sensible course for #Ukraine right now - and its neighbours and us - is to be preparing for this scenario from #Russia, and there is no indication, especially in Kyiv, that this has or will be done.
There we are: the White House has now accepted the French-mediated effort for a Biden-Putin conference
#US had sent a letter to the #UN saying it has "credible information" that #Russia is "creating lists of identified #Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation", and will be using "lethal measures" against any protests. washingtonpost.com/context/read-u…
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future conduct. See thread 👇🏻👇🏻
It has been so strange, and legitimately quite scary, to watch, especially as the clock runs down towards the onset of hostilities
#Russia testing if any Western journalist will take the bait
There has not been much in the way of (overt) preparation in #Ukraine
#Latvia saying the sanctions should already have been imposed on #Russia over what it has done in #Ukraine
White House says its acceptance of meeting with Russia on Thursday was entirely theoretical, and they expect [reasonably] that Russia will have invaded Ukraine by then
The Russian government has interestingly decided to reject the offer of a summit with Biden. Notable because Putin usually takes any chance he can get for face-time with the US President.
This is a in few hours
This illusion seems to be afflicting France alone
#Russia claiming [almost certainly falsely] that #Ukraine has made two efforts today at sabotage operations in Donetsk 👇🏻👇🏻
Relentless stream of fabrications from #Russia
The Donetsk separatist "republic" in eastern #Ukraine "requesting" fraternal intervention from #Russia ...
Republika Srpska in #Bosnia demonstrating its support for #Russia against #Ukraine
This comes after #Russia's puppet "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine "requested" Moscow intervene
The #EU's response as we are potentially hours away from #Russia initiating hostilities it has been signalling are coming for three months and more.
#Russia has annexed #Belarus and consolidated in #Cuba as it prepares to retake #Ukraine with force. Now it can add in #Azerbaijan as a state where Russian influence has been formalised throughout this crisis.
Massive number of troops from #Chechnya joining the #Russian forces in #Belarus from where the strike at Kyiv would be launched
No change in the White House assessment: we are on the eve of a major #Russian attack on #Ukraine
#Russia's propagandists not sending their best.
Obviously untrue, but #Russia doesn't seem concerned with the credibility of its provocations: it is just seeking to flood the zone
#Russia in full on create-a-shitstorm mode now; no attempt to keep the storylines together, just create enough confusion to act in.
#Russia's puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine have just issued a public request for the Russian government to recognise their independence and provide military assistance.
#Britain's Prime Minister says #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is effectively already underway
Putin currently meeting with the leaders of the Ukrainian puppet republics to decide whether to recognise their independence
#Estonia's Defence Minister says the window for diplomacy, assuming there ever was one, has gone, and #Russia will assault #Ukraine in short order
I don't even know how to describe this Security Council meeting in #Russia over recognising the Ukrainian separatist "republics" as independent. It's a sort of cross between Judge Judy, the Apprentice, and a Soviet show trial.
I'm repeating myself but I can't emphasis how absolutely insane this public Security Council meeting is in #Russia.
At the public #Russia Security Council meeting, the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu has just said #Ukraine - a state run by "radical nationalists" (i.e. Nazis) - is closer to nuclear weapons than Iran and North Korea, and is working on provocations against Russia.
This public #Russian Security Council meeting is clearly building up to some major announcement, but honestly everyone could be too stunned by the time they get there to hear what it is.
Medvedev has now been wheeled out to say this situation in #Ukraine is worse than the threat from #Georgia in 2008. After all the usual about Kyiv's menace to Russia, Medvedev says "the history of mankind" shows people won't put up with these things forever.
After quoting Bulgakov, Medvedev goes on to say Russia rescued many people in 2008 in Georgia and now the "only way out" is to do the same thing in Ukraine. Doing this involves "complicated things, including a military component", but the vast majority of Russians would support.
LMAO Putin says he never asked for anyone's opinion before this pantomime at the Security Council started because it was important to hear their honest views.
#Russia's Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin just called for Putin to recognise the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine.
Valentina Matvienko just said at #Russia's Security Council that Biden can fire officials in D.C., so this shows the Kyiv government is a puppet and Biden could snap his fingers and make peace in #Ukraine. She accuses Kyiv of genocide and ... not providing retirement care.
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council that Russia owes protection to the people in Donetsk and Luhansk because they're Russians, whatever their formal citizenship, and she "can't watch the footage any more" (of Ukraine apparently attacking these areas).
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council asks to be excused for being so emotional, but what has Russia ever done to Ukraine? Moscow never interfered in Ukraine and provided them free gas, and now these genocidaire puppets of America are threatening Russians.
I cannot convey in words how mad this public Security Council meeting in #Russia is.
Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia and former FSB chief, says what I am sure all of the people at this meeting believe: the Kyiv government is simply a puppet of America and it is working to "destroy the Russian Federation".
Patrushev makes clear Russia does not care about talks with anybody except the US, and even there there is nothing to discuss because the US is plotting, through its proxy government in Kyiv, to destroy Russia, so recognising the separatist "republics" is the only way.

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Soviet official history gave a lot of credit to spies like the Rote Kapelle (Red Orchestra) for their success on the Eastern Front, but the real turning point was after the Rote Kapelle was rolled up by the Nazis, and came about due to British and American SIGINT passed to Moscow ImageImage
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