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Feb 18 • 1414 tweets • 800 min read
Made a mess of these threads. Integrating them here
#Ukraine's President Zelensky said a few hours ago he is still going to Germany tomorrow for the Munich Security Conference. Whether this is supposed to promote calm or what is unclear; it's a hell of a time for him to leave his capital.
President #Biden just said in his White House address that the US believes the #Russians will invade #Ukraine in the next few days and "they will target Ukraine's capital, Kiev". Image
#Biden in his speech minutes ago said: "As of this moment, I’m convinced [#Putin has] made the decision [to invade #Ukraine]. I have reason to believe that."

This follows the leaked assessment yesterday that #Britain had come to this conclusion, too.
#pt
#pt
#Russia moved 70+% of its military to surround #Ukraine, while Vladimir Putin made impossible demands and publicly mused on Ukraine being a fake state that properly belongs to Russia. It did not stop the too-clever-by-half explanations of what was happening.
The time of the propaganda games has passed
This too 👇🏻
The destabilisation phase ahead of #Russia's full-scale invasion of #Ukraine is well underway
Have a feeling if we ever get the papers it will turn out the #Kosovo (and more general Jugoslav) dimension to #Putin's thinking as he decided on this invasion of #Ukraine was much greater than the coverage would suggest.
No let up: #Russia claiming a shelling by #Ukraine near where the Donbas evacuees - "refugees" from genocide, in the telling of the Kremlin - are based
#Russia's man in Donetsk announces a mobilisation, suggesting war is very close at hand in eastern #Ukraine
Luhansk, the #Russian-occupied "republic" in eastern #Ukraine, has begun mobilising. #Russia's other puppet republic in the Donbas, Donetsk, mobilised a short while ago.
It's all just so ... pathetic. The (blatantly fake) car bombing yesterday afternoon, the pipe explosion last night, and now this? That's the "genocide" threat to the Donbas that Putin is going to say justifies his invasion of Ukraine?
#Russian forces killed a #Ukrainian soldier in the east this morning, it seems. Meanwhile, the Russians are claiming their territory has been attacked (see: m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202221910…)
It has to be granted that the #Biden administration has done everything it can to remove #Russia's pretexts for this attack on #Ukraine. If the Biden people's strategy was based on a belief the messaging would deter Putin, though, that's more troublesome.
The #EU institutionally has not performed well during the #Ukraine crisis and its leading member states, particularly Germany, did much worse individually. Now this. (The Baltic states did much better, and Poland, which is about to be on the front line.)
Thread 👇🏻 Supposed evidence from the impact site, where #Ukraine shelled #Russian territory in the Rostov area at about 4 AM local time

[It's nearly midday in Moscow, so this is eight hours ago, though only reported in the last hour.]
All of this focus on Minsk has been so overdone. Putin might have accepted Ukraine's capitulation on the point in the summer of 2021, after the first military buildup, as sufficient to obviate the need for war. Not by the November 2021 buildup, though.
#Ukraine's preparedness is a serious concern. The Kiev leadership all along effectively denied this was going to happen; the hope is that was domestic messaging to avoid panic, but ...
You can see this dynamic in #India, too. Most Indians in their heart of hearts actually *do* know better, at least the officials seem to, but for historic reasons they don't want a public fight with #Russia, so Delhi just keeps quiet.
1/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
2/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
#Russia potentially nearly doubling the number of troops it has brought up to #Ukraine's borders since the end of January
#Russian strategic nuclear exercises was all it needed
#US Defense Secretary says he has seen the same information and Putin has made his decision to invade #Ukraine
Quite cynical for #Germany to cloak itself in its history and claim to be working for "peace" - while refusing to help #Ukraine prevent or hinder a war so as not to piss off a #Russia from which Germany gets its energy
This is among the reasons, incidentally, that the "#Russia doesn't have enough troops to occupy #Ukraine, so Moscow can't be intending anything too major around Kiev" takes are so off the mark. The Kremlin has troops drawn from the Donbas for the east.
Not that #Belarus' "government" could make #Russia's troops leave if it wanted to, but ...
The incompetence of #Russia in preparing these provocations is matched only by the shamelessness of the Putin government: it makes not a jot of difference that everyone (who wants to) knows this is a pre-fabricated excuse for aggression.
#Russia's allies among the elite in #Ukraine leaving; a notable signal, as with the signs of burning documents at the Russian Embassy in Kiev.
Fortunate, really, that the results of these investigations are worked out in advance, or one would be concerned about the overworking of the employees of the Russian legal system.
#Russia committing to the #Ukraine-attacked-us bit
Are we sure he said "no", not "the"?
Unfortunately, this outcome is not in doubt
Re talk of this being a "quagmire" for #Russia in #Ukraine or not being able to stabilise things. Just a reminder that this was all said about #Syria seven years ago, and then as now relied on Western mirror-imaging of Russian concepts of "victory" kyleorton.co.uk/2015/09/30/rus… Image
On we go. An interesting - in no sense surprising, but important nonetheless - aspect @michaelh992 has repeatedly highlighted is the way these "separatist" statements and news items appear in #Russia's state media simultaneously, as in often to the second
Notable: Yulia Latynina, who argued (including in the @nytimes) that #Putin was bluffing over #Ukraine, now says she, too, believes he has made up his mind to go to war.
#NATO moving out of #Ukraine's capital
It's very touchy for foreigners sitting safety to be second-guessing #Ukraine's President at a time like this ... It is nonetheless strange for him to leave his capital right now. The #Russian attack could literally begin at any moment.
#pt
Beyond parody
#Russia's very independent and objective, totally fair and fact-oriented investigation has concluded, after approximately forty-five minutes, that #Ukraine did it - all of it, whatever it was they were asked about.
Further shenanigans to come
Decks being cleared
#pt
The entire evacuation, i.e. creation of a refugee situation, was designed by #Russia to claim these people had been attacked by #Ukraine's army, setting up the pretext for invasion
Total coincidence #Russia makes reporting from eastern #Ukraine more difficult
The Russian Communist Party remains absolutely devoted to breaking down the relationship between words and their meaning
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has a reasonable point
No serious reason to dissent from the #NATO secretary-general
The clock continues to run down toward #Russia's assault on #Ukraine
#pt
Noteworthy
#US intelligence's reach into #Russia has been quite something.
Important to note this from #Australia's Prime Minister: on their own and through Five Eyes, the Australians have better intelligence about #Russia than many European states, certainly than Germany, and frankly than #Ukraine itself.
Sometimes it is what isn't there and what you can't see that is most telling
On the subject of things not seen being the most worrying: #Russia is causing all this trouble in the east of #Ukraine, while being deathly silent in the west - where they will likely attack the capital. Makes tactical surprise more feasible. .
Someone should forward this to the Kremlin so they can see what "encircled state" actually means
#pt
The scale of the violence #Russia orchestrated in eastern #Ukraine yesterday is extraordinary. To call these conditions of "ceasefire" stretches the definition, and that's of course the point, to provoke Kiev into reacting, then using it as a pretext
Officials in the Duma musing (in public) on 21 February as the start date for #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Today's shenanigans from #Russia in the east of #Ukraine
Pravda is "reporting" that #Ukraine is planning an attack on the Russian-occupied #Transnistria zone of Moldova g4media.ro/497221.html
Horrible situation, pointlessly created by #Russia to set up the Kremlin's attack on #Ukraine
All so surprising
We use "the Russians" as a short-hand for the Putin government, and one needn't be too concerned about that. But it is just worth keeping in mind that there are people opposed to this, and some are bravely witnessing for it in direst circumstances
.@trussliz: "[Putin has] been very clear – his ambition doesn't just lead to him taking control of #Ukraine ... The #Baltic states are at risk ... the western #Balkans as well. Putin has said all this publicly". dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
#France has made something of a point of keeping its diplomats in Kiev. See how long that lasts.
Strange, indeed
Comprehensive thread on one of #Russia's false flag efforts 👇🏼
Hope springs eternal. The problem is exactly that Putin would know this would be a loss; highly doubtful he accepts that after getting this far out on a limb. The argument over whether this started as a bluff has been superseded for the same reasons.
Unassailable summary
Difficult to judge the point at which going through the motions of keeping diplomatic channels open becomes collaborating in Russian aggression by maintaining the fiction that this might not happen and using up resources to prepare for it
On the scale of the #Russian build-up
#Ukraine's President apparently sees the "peace process" as the way out of this
Soldiers from #Checnya among #Russia's troops preparing to attack #Ukraine
What a horrible, needless disaster from the #Putin government - and on its "own side", too.
So we're doing this again ...
What can there be left to say?
"The U.S. has intelligence that #Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of #Ukraine, with commanders on the ground making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sectors of the battlefield" - @CBSNews journalist cbsnews.com/news/russia-uk…
#Russia's media behaving roughly as one would expect
#US Defense Secretary says it is "highly likely" #Russia will have tanks on the streets of Kiev, the capital of #Ukraine, and the city could "very quickly" be taken.
#Poland is important to watch: there are tripwires in #Ukraine that if #Russia runs over them, will draw in the Poles, no matter what NATO does.
A very strange note from the #US Embassy warning of possible terrorist attacks in #Russia, in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Lunatic ultra-nationalist member of the State Duma, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, announcing the start date of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
Senior official in #Turkey in effect supports #Russia's position over #Ukraine.
Nearly five hours ago, #Russia shelled one of the "capital" cities in the occupied "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine, intending to blame the Ukrainian government.
#France's President Macron spoke for an hour on the telephone with #Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin - @AFP

To what end ...
The purpose of the official messaging from #Ukraine's government remains baffling.
Again, one does not need the Five Eyes assessments on this: #Ukraine's official statement tonight (only the latest of a consistent theme) about #Russia not being ready to go imminently is visibly, demonstrably wrong
Because of the large analytical chorus that has insisted (some still to) that #Russia will not do this, the messaging from #Ukraine's government effectively saying there is nothing to worry about (and the lack of preparations) hasn't been treated as being as crazy as it really is
The other oddity is #France and #Germany keep calling #Putin and arranging meetings. As best I can tell, the theory is that if they've arranged a conference, Putin can't invade before that date because that would be rude, so if they just keep arranging conferences ... Madness.
#pt The latest one
Not entirely sure threatening Putin that he cannot have a meeting at which he will be begged not to invade Ukraine if he invades Ukraine before the day of the meeting is quite the diplomatic leverage the Europeans and Biden seem to think it is.
During this crisis that might well end with #Russia having #Ukraine back under its control, it has already taken back #Belarus and is consolidating further in #Cuba. Must feel like old times in the Kremlin.
The devastation if #Russia does what it looks as if it is about to in #Ukraine will be of a kind we have not seen in Europe in quite some time.
Seems #Biden has not (yet) accepted the #France-mediated effort for another #US-#Russia meeting on Thursday
The mood seems to be shifting in #Ukraine
The only sensible course for #Ukraine right now - and its neighbours and us - is to be preparing for this scenario from #Russia, and there is no indication, especially in Kyiv, that this has or will be done.
There we are: the White House has now accepted the French-mediated effort for a Biden-Putin conference
#US had sent a letter to the #UN saying it has "credible information" that #Russia is "creating lists of identified #Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation", and will be using "lethal measures" against any protests. washingtonpost.com/context/read-u…
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future conduct. See thread 👇🏻👇🏻
It has been so strange, and legitimately quite scary, to watch, especially as the clock runs down towards the onset of hostilities
#Russia testing if any Western journalist will take the bait
There has not been much in the way of (overt) preparation in #Ukraine
#Latvia saying the sanctions should already have been imposed on #Russia over what it has done in #Ukraine
White House says its acceptance of meeting with Russia on Thursday was entirely theoretical, and they expect [reasonably] that Russia will have invaded Ukraine by then
The Russian government has interestingly decided to reject the offer of a summit with Biden. Notable because Putin usually takes any chance he can get for face-time with the US President.
This is a in few hours
This illusion seems to be afflicting France alone
#Russia claiming [almost certainly falsely] that #Ukraine has made two efforts today at sabotage operations in Donetsk 👇🏻👇🏻
Relentless stream of fabrications from #Russia
The Donetsk separatist "republic" in eastern #Ukraine "requesting" fraternal intervention from #Russia ...
Republika Srpska in #Bosnia demonstrating its support for #Russia against #Ukraine
This comes after #Russia's puppet "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine "requested" Moscow intervene
The #EU's response as we are potentially hours away from #Russia initiating hostilities it has been signalling are coming for three months and more.
#Russia has annexed #Belarus and consolidated in #Cuba as it prepares to retake #Ukraine with force. Now it can add in #Azerbaijan as a state where Russian influence has been formalised throughout this crisis.
Massive number of troops from #Chechnya joining the #Russian forces in #Belarus from where the strike at Kyiv would be launched
No change in the White House assessment: we are on the eve of a major #Russian attack on #Ukraine
#Russia's propagandists not sending their best.
Obviously untrue, but #Russia doesn't seem concerned with the credibility of its provocations: it is just seeking to flood the zone
#Russia in full on create-a-shitstorm mode now; no attempt to keep the storylines together, just create enough confusion to act in.
#Russia's puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine have just issued a public request for the Russian government to recognise their independence and provide military assistance.
#Britain's Prime Minister says #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is effectively already underway
Putin currently meeting with the leaders of the Ukrainian puppet republics to decide whether to recognise their independence
#Estonia's Defence Minister says the window for diplomacy, assuming there ever was one, has gone, and #Russia will assault #Ukraine in short order
I don't even know how to describe this Security Council meeting in #Russia over recognising the Ukrainian separatist "republics" as independent. It's a sort of cross between Judge Judy, the Apprentice, and a Soviet show trial.
I'm repeating myself but I can't emphasis how absolutely insane this public Security Council meeting is in #Russia.
At the public #Russia Security Council meeting, the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu has just said #Ukraine - a state run by "radical nationalists" (i.e. Nazis) - is closer to nuclear weapons than Iran and North Korea, and is working on provocations against Russia.
This public #Russian Security Council meeting is clearly building up to some major announcement, but honestly everyone could be too stunned by the time they get there to hear what it is.
Medvedev has now been wheeled out to say this situation in #Ukraine is worse than the threat from #Georgia in 2008. After all the usual about Kyiv's menace to Russia, Medvedev says "the history of mankind" shows people won't put up with these things forever.
After quoting Bulgakov, Medvedev goes on to say Russia rescued many people in 2008 in Georgia and now the "only way out" is to do the same thing in Ukraine. Doing this involves "complicated things, including a military component", but the vast majority of Russians would support.
LMAO Putin says he never asked for anyone's opinion before this pantomime at the Security Council started because it was important to hear their honest views.
#Russia's Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin just called for Putin to recognise the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine.
Valentina Matvienko just said at #Russia's Security Council that Biden can fire officials in D.C., so this shows the Kyiv government is a puppet and Biden could snap his fingers and make peace in #Ukraine. She accuses Kyiv of genocide and ... not providing retirement care.
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council that Russia owes protection to the people in Donetsk and Luhansk because they're Russians, whatever their formal citizenship, and she "can't watch the footage any more" (of Ukraine apparently attacking these areas).
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council asks to be excused for being so emotional, but what has Russia ever done to Ukraine? Moscow never interfered in Ukraine and provided them free gas, and now these genocidaire puppets of America are threatening Russians.
I cannot convey in words how mad this public Security Council meeting in #Russia is.
Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia and former FSB chief, says what I am sure all of the people at this meeting believe: the Kyiv government is simply a puppet of America and it is working to "destroy the Russian Federation".
Patrushev makes clear Russia does not care about talks with anybody except the US, and even there there is nothing to discuss because the US is plotting, through its proxy government in Kyiv, to destroy Russia, so recognising the separatist "republics" is the only way.
Head of the #SVR Sergey Naryshkin says Kyiv will never abide by Minsk, so #Russia should recognise the independence of the separatist "republics" in eastern #Ukraine.
Naryshkin slipped at one point and said he supported annexing these areas of eastern #Ukraine, then rowed back and said it was only independence for them.
Before calling up Lavrov, Putin asked if there were any diverging viewpoints. Apparently nobody wanted to be defenestrated, so no hands went up.
Lavrov brings up Kosovo and "genocide" as leading to the emergence of an independent state without a vote. Lavrov says that Nazis/Banderites that run Ukraine are persecuting Slavs, Orthodox believers, and all Russians. "We can't just stand idly by" as compatriots are humiliated.
Lavrov reiterates the suggestion (I forget who said it earlier, alas) that Biden should be given two or three days to make his puppets in Kyiv abide by the Minsky Agreement, or else the separatist "republics" should be recognised.
Honestly, just an incredible spectacle.
Sergey Shoygu: "We have no borders with Ukraine. We have borders with the Americans, who are pumping weapons and nukes into their puppets [in Ukraine]."
The Security Council meeting ends quite suddenly with Putin thanking everyone for their entirely spontaneous opinions. Says he will make a decision later today on recognising the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine.
The people who have discussed the Ukraine crisis in terms of rational calculations from the Kremlin should be clockwork-oranged with this Security Council meeting.
Trying to work through the shell shock of that Security Council meeting ... Think it is worth underlining that all this focus from #Russia on the Donbas, in messaging and the kinetic provocations, is likely part of the deception operation; the hammer blow will fall in the west.
In other words, this is not, in my humble submission, as some have argued (hoped?), a sign that Putin is reorienting after "his brinkmanship failed" to a more limited operation in the east of Ukraine.
The #US called this Security Council meeting: "The highest levels of the Russian government may theatrically convene emergency meetings ... [and] issue proclamations declaring Russia must respond to defend ... ethnic Russians in Ukraine."
#pt Blinken said there would be a theatrical public meeting on the need for Russia to protect its ethnic kin in Ukraine, adding, "Next, the attack is planned to begin."
#Ukraine's President understandably perturbed by what #Russia just staged
An important part in the Security Council show: specifically claiming to recognise these provinces/"republics" under their pre-2014 borders. Unclear if #Russia will begin in the east, draw away what it can before attacking Kyiv, or hit everything at once
Not long left on the clock now
Was truly the most extraordinary moment in what was a generally extraordinary event. You could see Putin as he really is, the blend of Soviet Man and mafioso, the presiding show trial judge with the smirk. No surprise that Naryshkin went to pieces.
#Israel moving its Embassy out of #Ukraine's capital to the main city in the west
Continuing provocations from #Russia
🙄
#Ukraine reports that a shell from the Russian-occupied zone in the east has hit Novoluganske, 25 miles north of Donetsk, killing a civilian and two soldiers - @AFP.

The clear effort by #Russia is to provoke Kiev into a response that can be used as a pretext to begin this.
As expected, Putin recognises the independence of the two puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine
This 👇🏻 All this rhetoric about the east is a diversion from the west and the capital
Again, no shock at all: #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has been billed as a peacekeeping operation
#pt
Unbelievably pathetic
#US moving entirely out of #Ukraine
The #US/others moved to Lviv as an apparent safe city in #Ukraine after departing Kyiv. That the Americans/etc. are now leaving Lviv would seem to indicate they believe #Russia is going to conquer the entire state.
#Japan to do its bit in dealing with #Russia
Let's call it a start
The last images of the old world
#Iran's Huthis recognise the #Russian puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine
#Ukraine's leadership continues to be alarmingly divorced from reality
Turns out, Zhirinovsky was telling the truth (give or take 100 minutes)
"The #US is still seeing preparations for a potential broad [#Russian] invasion [of #Ukraine] including loading amphibious ships and loading equipment for airborne units." cnn.com/2022/02/21/pol…
The #US sanctions after #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine tonight do not even target Russia.
#Biden administration already defining down "invasion"
Listening to #Putin's speech announcing the onset of the war about six hours ago: it begins with the common stuff of a coup that brought the current #Ukraine government to power, Nazis running Kyiv, Ukraine having nuclear weapons "with support from the West".
#Putin accuses #Ukraine's government, which he portrays as a direct puppet of the #US, of persecuting the Russian Orthodox Church. Says that it has even used #jihadists to oppose Russia in Crimea.
#Putin says #NATO is using #Ukraine to spy on #Russia with drones and would have done the same with #Crimea if the people of the peninsula had not risen up and destroyed these bases.
#Putin doing the thing about #NATO promising not to extend "one inch" into the east after the reunification of Germany, but while #Russia stuck to its obligations by pulling troops out of Eastern Europe, the West took advantage of the weakened Russia.
#Putin says he has never mentioned this before but during #Clinton's visit in 2000 he asked about #Russia joining #NATO and was cold-shouldered. After this, says Putin, the West "supported the terrorists" in #Chechnya.
#Putin says that the basis of all the trouble is the West's refusal to accept a unified and independent #Russia. Putin says the waves of #NATO expansion have threatened Russia and now #Ukraine is all-but joined into this bloc as "the main citadel" of the threat to Russia.
#Putin says that the West's threat of sanctions is not related to anything in #Ukraine; this would be done "without any formal pretext, just because we exist. We will never give up ... our values."
#Putin [projecting] claims that #Ukraine is planning a blitzkrieg in Donbas that will kill innocent civilians, but the "so-called civilised world" does not recognise this "genocide" just because these people oppose the "coup de'etat" by the "Nazis" in Kyiv.
#Putin [again projecting] says that #Ukraine has decided that there is no solution in Donbas without military force. Then announces he is recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk puppet statelets; the "usurpers" in Kyiv have to leave them be or Kyiv will be responsible for bloodshed.
#Putin then signs the document recognising the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" as independent states; the puppet leaders then sign. The agreement spells out the "cooperation and mutual assistance" for the purposes of "peace". Image
The #UN doing about what you'd expect
There is no reason to think #Putin does not personally and deeply believe this - which is the explanation for why this is happening to #Ukraine.
#India has singularly failed to rise to this occasion
Rather important for #Ukraine to neutralise #Russia's agents as quickly as possible.
#Russia's state media went to #Donetsk to find people celebrating the decision by Russia to recognise their independence. They were able to corral about two-dozen people into it.
Hmm. Let's see. I'm really dubious the EU will target Nord Stream 2 in a meaningful way in the new sanctions.
German Chancellor says Nord Stream 2 is excluded from the EU sanctions on Russia
This is so delusional. It serves no purpose of #Ukraine's for its President to say this right now.
Pure delusion
As expected, Russia's puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine are demanding the extension of their control up to the old provincial boundaries and the removal of Kyiv's control in those areas
Germany halting Nord Stream 2 definitely was not expected
#Estonia has performed extremely creditably throughout this whole crisis
Reiterating a message from the Security Council show and Putin's speech, #Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said that #Ukraine does not meet the definition of a sovereign state, and hasn't done at least "since the 2014 coup d’état". nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/r…
With violence at that scale, and an announced invasion, one might wonder whether there was any ceasefire to monitor
Excellent statement from the Prime Minister. Says #Putin's gambit in #Ukraine "must fail, and must be seen to fail". Boris seems to understand there was never a diplomatic path and Putin is motivated by "mystical" reasons that can only be blocked by force.
#Hungary announces a deployment of troops on the border with #Ukraine, preparing for the fallout of #Russia's attack
#Ukraine leaking the names of #Russia's agents who have been placed around the country to conduct sabotage operations and even a coup attempt in collaboration with the Russian invasion
#Turkey condemns #Russia for recognising the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine
The White House now calling #Russia's moves against #Ukraine an "invasion"
#Sweden's Prime Minister is *not* calling #Russia's actions against #Ukraine an "invasion". A "violation" of territorial integrity using troops in an invasion-y way, yes, but one has to be clear with language.
Here we go >> The head of #Russia's Federation Council (upper house of parliament) says #Putin has sent a request to use troops abroad.
Given that #Russia's leadership doesn't recognise #Ukraine as an independent state anyway, not sure Moscow will resist this move. Not that any of it matters: the Kremlin has in place its plan and is proceeding step-by-step - nothing can stop that now.
#Russia's parliament rubber stamps #Putin's "request" to deploy troops outside the country
#Russia is evacuating its diplomats from #Ukraine tass.ru/politika/13812…
On current trajectory, the shock-and-awe phase of the #Russian assault on western #Ukraine will have begun before that.
#Russia getting its diplomats out of #Ukraine and cancelling the diplomatic meeting scheduled for Friday should be glaring warning signs of where we are going - and when.
Even as a first step of sanctions against #Russia this seems woefully inadequate to the scale and stage of this crisis from the #EU
One for those who insisted this was all about compelling #Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreement >> #Putin says the Minsk Accords are dead and were "killed long before" #Russia recognised the separatist "republics" as independent states yesterday. gazeta.ua/ru/articles/do…
Very much into the endgame now
#Biden says that #Putin is "setting up a rationale to take more territory by force ... to go much further. This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine". Biden announces more extensive sanctions on #Russia and says the sanctions will ratchet up as Russia escalates. Image
#Biden announces "full blocking sanctions" on two #Russian financial institutions ("VEB and their military bank") and "comprehensive sanctions" on Russia's sovereign debt ("that means we have cut off Russian government from Western financing").
#Biden says the #US has worked with Germany to stop Nord Stream and will impose new sanctions on members of #Russia's elite tomorrow. Because Russia won't withdraw from #Belarus, there will be new US troop deployments in the #Baltics to defend "every inch of NATO territory".
#Biden says the #US "still believe[s] Russia is poised" for a massive attack on #Ukraine, including on the capital, Kyiv, noting that "much of the playbook that Secretary Blinken laid out ... has come to pass".
#Biden says that "defending freedom will have costs. We need to be honest about that." But the sanctions will be targeted to impact #Russia's economy, not the West's.
#Biden says #Putin showed he had no interest in dialogue about European security. "He directly attacked #Ukraine's right to exist and indirectly threatened territories formerly held by Russia that are today ... members of NATO."
#Biden says #Putin still has time to avert doing something that will cause suffering to millions. The #US will "remain open to diplomacy if it is serious. ... I'm hoping diplomacy is still available."
The sanctions on VEB and Promsvyazbank are very much at the shot-across-the-bow end of the spectrum, and perhaps that is the point, since #Biden says this is the first tranche and he remains hopeful #Russia will stand down. Still, relatively weak for so late in the crisis.
#Australia preparing new sanctions on #Russia
#Ukraine beginning to mobilise its reservists
#US Secretary of State Blinken has now cancelled his meeting with #Russia's foreign minister that was scheduled for Feb. 24 on the not-unreasonable grounds that with the Russian invasion of #Ukraine underway, there is very little to talk about.
#Singapore, #Japan, and #Taiwan joining the Western effort to sanction #Russia for the assault on #Ukraine foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/bid…
Details on the #NATO (re)deployments to cope with the fallout from #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Details on #Ukraine's reservist mobilisation: far from complete (since that would require martial law), but still of a scale that it will take weeks to complete ... and the assault on the capital is days away at most
Difficult to believe the hopes once placed in Medvedev. Now he represents perhaps the most pathetic figure in the inner circle; his performance at the Security Council show was just tragic.
As #Russia creates all the noise in eastern #Ukraine, its forces continue to build up in Belarus for the strike in western Ukraine aimed at the capital
The fact that so many in the replies think this is in any way a gotcha is a reflection on the dire state of unseriousness among even engaged politicos, not on Trudeau, who has acted for order domestically and abroad of late.
Thread on the evidence confirming that the wild Security Council show was pre-recorded
Interesting: SWIFT not definitively ruled out as being among the #US sanctions that might be imposed on #Russia
The tone and texture of what the Biden people are saying about sanctions on #Russia is far more worrying than the literal substance (which for now has not closed off anything): it looks very much like all the errors of 2014 being repeated
Interesting to see #Putin's remarks on #NATO accession for #Ukraine from 2002. Suspect it is less "democracy" in some abstract sense, though, and more the return of #Russian power (and relative #US decline) that is the major difference between then and now
#Japan imposes its own sanctions on #Russia over the invasion of #Ukraine
#Australia imposes sanctions on #Russia for its aggression against #Ukraine
Slight false flag overkill from #Russia, and not even a single one has yet been remotely convincing
#Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison says a "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine, by Russia, is likely within 24 hours.

From the open source evidence, this is entirely plausible.
Intelligence officials speaking to @FT say #Russia is still to escalate in #Ukraine; the Donbas is just the start, and Kyiv is next.
Ukrainian intelligence expecting a major escalation from Russia in the Donbas over the next 48 hours.
#Putin in pure troll mode offers further talks, even as he is hours away from the long-mediated attack on the the west of Ukraine, intended to put an end to it as a sovereign state in any serious sense.
One of the more obviously ominous signs
ScoMo gave a good speech about what is coming in Ukraine - and when, spelling out that Russia's full-scale attack will likely have started by this time tomorrow
#Ukraine instructs its citizens to leave #Russia
Trump missing a perfectly serviceable opportunity to keep quiet
.@trussliz says she is concerned #Russia's conquest of #Ukraine will not remain contained in Ukraine.

It's not an unreasonable fear: the ideological vision under which Putin is acting involves revisionist claims on a number of states.
The striking thing about all of #Russia's false flags in eastern #Ukraine is how bad they have been. This one is macabre, but in no sense convincing.
#Ukraine moving to prepare the citizenry, though very, very late
A firehose of bullshit from #Russia.
State of emergency introduced in the parts of #Ukraine not under overt #Russian occupation
#Ukraine claims to have had some success combing #Russian agents out of the system, though espionage concerns remain and perhaps even more deep concerns about the discipline of the army once it becomes clear #Russia has things going its way.
This kind of messaging has been persistent on #Russian TV of late - though, it should be said, of surprisingly late; the domestic media blitz for the blitz of Ukraine only started within the last two weeks, yet the buildup has been visible since November
The diplomats clearing out. We are probably twelve hours away from #Russia taking this in a scary direction in #Ukraine
At last, a senior official!
#pt
Curiouser and curiouser
Not been absolutely stellar from #Israel during this crisis. As happens more often than either side likes to admit, the Israelis are in a similar predicament to #Turkey's leadership when it comes to dealing with #Russia.
#Israel declares for #Ukraine, albeit while splitting the difference somewhat
#Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced an extra package of military support to #Ukraine, including lethal aid, in the face of #Russia’s invasion. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
#Pakistan proving to be about as useful an ally as ever it has
The junta in #Sudan on pilgrimage to Moscow right as #Russia is preparing its all-out assault on #Ukraine
Massive cyber attack underway [obviously by #Russia] that is preventing #Ukraine's key ministries functioning
As cyber attacks blackout #Ukraine's institutions, bomb scares are being phoned in.
#Ukraine's President has been warned all along what is coming from #Russia and has largely failed to act on it. Let's see if he does more now.
This is better, if late
The #Russian flag has been taken down at the Embassy in Kyiv - @Reuters.
From an analyst who long argued that #Russia was bluffing: "All negotiations are off. The Russian Embassy has left [#Ukraine]. Tomorrow is war. The question is what can be done?"
Signs the #Russian escalation is in full-swing in #Ukraine
#Russia trying to ratify its propaganda through outside analysts
#Russian aircraft seems to have crossed into #Ukraine for reconnaissance flights. The first wave of the assault in the west will include devastating airstrikes. In tandem with cyber-attacks in state institutions, this is incredibly worrying.
#Hungary joining the #EU policy in dealing with #Russia is going to create some tensions for the pro-Orban, anti-anti-Putin populist Rightists who are safely in countries that aren't about to share a border with Russia.
A horrible decision for #Ukraine to have to make, with potential disaster whichever way things go.
#pt
#Ukraine's Ambassador to #Turkey Vasyl Bodnar said: "when the war becomes not only de facto, but de jure - we will ask the Turkish government to consider the possibility of closing the Black Sea straits for the aggressor state [#Russia]." straitstimes.com/world/europe/u…
Probably a matter of hours now
#pt
Not something that matters for diplomacy, but potentially a part of how #Russia will set up the pretext for the full-scale assault.
These false flags by #Russia would be funny, if they were not the prelude to thousands of people being killed
It is just false to say "peaceful solutions" are "the only game in town". The Taliban demonstrated that determined military force works last year; Asad demonstrated it over many years, Russia in 2014 and soon again in Ukraine. To deprive one side of violence is to take sides. Image
State Department spokesman as much as says the #US is out of patience with #Russia using diplomacy to camouflage the onset of its invasion of #Ukraine
Patriarch Kirill the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, as much as blessed Putin's coming assault on Ukraine in his speech on Defender of the Fatherland Day
#Ukraine's foreign minister reporting that the Titan chemical plant in Crimea has been evacuated after it became the target of a #Russian provocation.
The end of the "Russian television isn't preparing Russians for war" narrative
#Ukraine tried well beyond the point it was reasonable to reach peace with #Russia
Hitting the President of #Ukraine hard what he is facing
So, yeah, not gonna be any serious sanctions
Blinken says what is obvious: we are on the eve of #Russia launching an all-out attack on #Ukraine
My own view is that Blinken is being too coy, but there is nothing objectionable in what he said
It's barely more than common sense, but ...
#Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin began an "emergency speech" ten minutes ago that is tantamount to a declaration of war against #Ukraine.
#Putin's speech has no territorial limitations; this is not limited to securing the "independence" of the Donbas "republics". Putin means to destroy #Ukraine as a state.
#Putin - speaking at 5:45am Moscow time, incidentally - announced a "special military operation" in #Ukraine, aimed at the "demilitarisation and denazification" of the country.

It is a declaration of war and the devastating effects of that are moments away.
In his speech, #Putin effectively threatened those who would intervene to defend #Ukraine with nuclear weapons. This is in line with the signalling from #Russia for several weeks.
The reports now are of bombings in #Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. #Russian airstrikes are expected to be a significant part of the shock-and-awe campaign as the Russian government moves to conquer the country.
#Russia has attacked #Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, as well as Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Odessa.
There's a #UN Security Council meeting going on as #Russia begins its all-out assault on #Ukraine. Surreal.
#Russia initiating the attacks through its internal agents in #Ukraine
#pt
#Putin's speech declaring war on #Ukraine was almost certainly pre-recorded and released when the #UN Security Council was meeting just because he could; trolling as foreign policy.
I hope everyone appreciates that the world has just changed. Those who wished to weaken the American-led world order, you have your wish; let's see if it redounds to your benefit.
Naturally the United Nations has been a shocking moral abattoir
A disaster
#Israel clearing out of #Lviv, the city in #Ukraine's west where many Western states that have abandoned Kyiv have retreated to - and not unreasonably: #Russia means to conquer the whole territory; there is no safe zone.
God knows, really, it could be true
One of the likely fronts in an assault on #Ukraine's capital
Kharkiv being bombed
Lviv is where the remaining diplomats in Ukraine have retreated to
Just devastating
#Ukraine's troops down in Odesss.
Horrible footage out or Kharkiv
This 👇🏻 The Russians are hoping for - though by no means relying upon - the disintegration and defection of Ukraine's military, and not by terror alone; as with the rest of the state, it is honeycombed with Russian agents.
Land for time or a breakdown, we will see
#EU states split over sanctions on #Russia, even after the full-scale invasion
The #Russians have seized the International Airport in Hostomel, right near #Ukraine's capital
#pt
A European state having to fight in the skies over its own capital against an invading force that means to destroy it - not what was supposed to happen in 2022.
Deployments from NATO
#Russia's government rounding up people who even might protest about the conquest of #Ukraine. Worth keeping the Russian domestic angle in mind: remembering that there is resistance to this - and that the space for such expression is going to shrink.
Signs of economic trouble on the home front for #Russia
What a scene. Surreal.
Would be charitable to call #Israel "neutral" between #Russia and #Ukraine
Much better from #Israel
#Chechen troops deployed by #Russia in Donetsk in eastern #Ukraine.
#pt
#Ukraine inflicting costs
#Russia advancing swiftly
Having seized the nearby International Airport, #Russia is closing on #Ukraine's capital, as expected with relentless airstrikes
#Russia has overwhelming advantages; this was always going to only go one way, and quickly. But the lack of preparatory measures from #Ukraine has not helped.
#pt
#Russians chanting against the war in Saint Petersburg
#Russia moving rapidly on #Ukraine's capital
#Ukraine's President Zelensky says #Russia has captured airfield near Kyiv - @AFP
Very notable
The SWIFT option had seemed to be off the table, but the British and some Europeans are pushing for it. Let's see.
Thread 👇🏻 #Russia has come in on three axes, including from #Belarus, and is moving on #Ukraine's capital.
#pt
#pt
Yesterday, hours before #Russia launched its assault to destroy #Ukraine, John Kerry expressed his concerns about "the massive emissions consequences of the war" and "equally importantly you'll lose people's focus [on climate change]".
Some immensely brave people in #Russia 👇🏻
Been pretty clear for some time that #Russia had prepared to install a puppet government after the fall of Kiev
#pt
Mass protest by Russians in Saint Petersburg against #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
Map from @remilitari of the areas of #Ukraine currently occupied by #Russia. Image
#Ukraine's Health Minister Viktor Lyashko confirms that 57 Ukrainians, military and civilian, have been killed so far in #Russia's attack.
A start
#Ukraine has recaptured the Hostomel airfield from #Russia, according to an adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office.
#Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, may fall to #Russia's forces in a few hours since all of Ukraine's air defences have been effectively eliminated, according to "a senior Western intelligence official". bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It seems #Ukraine did not manage to retake the Hostomel Airfield, after all.
#Chechen troops, Praetorians for Putin's proxy ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, filmed somewhere in #Ukraine.
Now it's being reported that #Ukraine *has* retaken the Hostomel Airfield ...
#Ukraine arming its citizens
In #Russia, 1,742 people have been arrested for protesting against the Putin government's attack on #Ukraine. The scale of the protests - across 52 cities - in a state and at a time where the known penalties are severe is very impressive. ovd.news/news/2022/02/2…
So, we have a final word on what is actually happening: #Russia still has the airfield and has not lost it since it took it this morning, but it is contested and #Ukraine's forces managed to stop a landing of more Russian troops
#Biden administration channelling the spirit of detente: worried the US will be seen as escalating against Russia, while Moscow announces its escalation against America all over the world (Putin/minions have made clear they see Kyiv as a US puppet)
The oligarchs appealed to #Putin over the economy, and were summarily made aware that the boss doesn't have both oars in the water: Putin said he had to attack #Ukraine, or else it was unclear that #Russia could even continue to exist
Well that is odd
Not sure what Macron thought he would get out of this. If he really thought Putin would listen to reason, it would suggest problems with Macron's sanity.
#Biden put in place another raft of sanctions on #Russia on Feb. 24
#Ukraine has resisted #Russia's invasion more, and more successfully, than a lot of intelligence assessments believed. It cannot change the outcome, but it is impressive all the same.
An episode that has already become a morale-booster for Kiev, from Snake Island, where all the #Ukrainian defenders were killed after refusing to surrender to #Russia. President Zelensky awarded them all posthumous Hero of Ukraine medals.
#Russia recruiting by deception for "Wagner"
It seems shortly after Anonymous declared itself to be in a cyber war with Russia, the website for Russia Today went down.
Zelensky asked if #Ukraine was going to be in #NATO and received no reply.

The least the man is owed as #Russia dismantles his government is honesty.
#Russia prepared for the invasion of #Ukraine by arranging to coerce #Germany, and thereby all of #Europe, with restricted gas supplies.
Ukrainians were huddled in bomb shelters in the capital last night, preparing for a wave of airstrikes that it was believed were coming at 3 AM local time [five hours ago]
#pt
#pt
One of #Ukraine's fighter jets was shot down over the capital a couple of hours ago
Several states have stopped issuing visas to Russians
#Ukraine's resistance has almost certainly set back #Russia's timetable.

The Kremlin wants to use as little force as possible to keep costs (economic + political) down, but if a show of force doesn't - as it hasn't - lead to surrender, violence escalates.
#France reminding #Russia that it is not the only one who has nuclear weapons - something the Kremlin (and a lot of Western citizens and even analysts) often seem to forget
#pt
There's every sign of a serious #Russian escalation coming today. Does not look good for Kyiv. Would not be the end of the war, of course, but it radically changes the situation when the enemy captures the capital, with the state institutions.
Footage from a #British volunteer with #Ukraine's forces.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has said what at this stage must be obvious - #Russia means to kill him if it can - and the move on the capital, whether today or in the next few days, will be able to draw on internal agents for a coup/mutiny.
#Russia has provoked a further deployment of #US troops to defend the #NATO states
Thread on the *relative* restraint #Russia's forces have shown so far. This is based on political considerations for the day-after. There will be an escalation; the Kremlin cannot afford this to drag out. But whether it goes Full Aleppo, we will see.
Thread. It is notable that #Russia abandoned the effort to find a pretext to begin this - influenced by the #US leaks, and probably also by the discipline of #Ukraine's forces in refusing to take the bait of the provocations. We are always behind, though.
#pt
#pt
Quite worrying what #Biden thinks sanctions can do.
The economic impact within #Russia has been quite serious already. It will not stop the #Putin regime - not least because it might not be a lasting fact. But noteworthy all the same.
All signs pointing to today being an extremely grim one for #Ukraine - even by recent standards.
#pt
ASEAN ASEANing
#India has done itself a lot of political harm during this crisis in #Ukraine. Delhi might have been expected - with #China looming - to be an enthusiastic upholder of the taboo about cross-border aggression, but so it goes.
Thread on what Ukrainian intelligence is expecting from Russia's move on the capital.
#Ukraine has retaliated against a base inside #Russia
Disheartening verdict on #Britain's measures so far: mild annoyances to #Russia, feel-good for Putin's opponents, not much effective.
Thread from a US intelligence official. Bottom line: #Russia can and will overwhelm #Ukraine, but it has shown what anyone following #Syria could see, namely the deep structural weakness of the military if it ever came up against a #NATO army.
#pt
#Ukraine's defensive measures against the wave of #Russian attacks about two hours ago had some effect
#Ukraine's military just announced that it is fighting #Russia's forces outside the capital, Kyiv - @AFP
Another data point on #Russia moving rapidly on Kiev today.
The scene after #Ukraine launched a ballistic missile on the Millerovo military airbase within #Russia.
#Russia's deception operations during this war in #Ukraine, as in all prior ones, can be expected to play a key role.
#Ukraine urging citizens to throw Molotov cocktails at #Russian invaders
Seems a bit on-the-nose
😔
Disaster
#pt The Ukrainian President announced late last night that #Russia's sabotage teams were in the capital.
#pt
Clearly a desperate situation for #Ukraine: instructions went out a short while ago for citizens to make Molotov cocktails, #Russian have breached the capital, and now there are offers of negotiation.
#Ukraine trying to keep the morale up
Air raid sirens in Kyiv.
Insult to injury that #Russia keeps on with this propaganda
As if this situation wasn't surreal enough
About to get very ugly, very quickly in #Ukraine's capital
#pt
#Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov just gave a speech saying nobody would occupy #Ukraine; the Russians are there to ensure the country is demilitarised and liberated from oppression so it can choose its own way forward.

An absurd torrent of bullshit, but what else is new
Whether it's confused/unscripted messaging or deliberate obfuscation from #Russia, almost certainly comes to the same thing: Russia will take #Ukraine's capital and might try to annex some of the old elite, but Zelensky himself will be killed if they can
#pt
Guess it's better late than never, but when Russian troops are actually in Ukraine's capital is pretty late.
- At least 25 civilians killed and 102 injured in Ukraine, UN says

- Russia has lost 450 personnel, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says

- At least 33 civilian sites targeted by Russia, Ukraine says

via @BBCNews
#Turkey says it cannot stop #Russia's warships moving through the Black Sea because of the Montreux Convention. The Turkish Foreign Minister bizarrely adds that it's unclear if the Russian attack on #Ukraine "could be defined as a war". reuters.com/world/turkey-c…
Horrible
#Putin allegedly told Xi Jinping he was willing to negotiate at a "high level" with #Ukraine (whatever that means, and assuming - a heroic assumption - it is truthful). ria.ru/20220225/pereg…
Zelensky is not wrong
#pt
Seems about right from the #EU
#Russia says it is ready to send representatives to Minsk to negotiate with #Ukraine
#Russia attempted to take out #Ukraine's air assets in the first hours of the invasion; that did not succeed.
#pt
This was meant to be in this thread
It has been an important part of #Russia's messaging and - like basically all of it - IMO the leadership really believes it that #Ukraine has been seduced into homosexuality and other Western deviances, and Orthodox Russia has to rescue her 👇🏼
#pt
Not much to add to that, is there
Horrible video circulating of a #Russian tank running over a #Ukrainian civilian's car. Amazingly, the driver survived, and was pulled out of the wreckage.
#Putin's "negotiation" with #Ukraine is a full-scale invasion and inciting a military coup.

At the Security Council just now he said: "Take power into your own hands. It seems it will be easier for us to agree [a deal] with you than with this gang of drug-addicts and neo-Nazis"
#Russia now threatening #Sweden and #Finland because they're considering joining #NATO ... because they're scared of threats from Russia
#pt
Presumably Anonymous
The Roman Church protesting Russia's assault on Ukraine, where about 10% of the 40+ million people are Catholic
#Germany's donation of 5,000 helmets to #Ukraine still has not arrived. It apparently will soon, but the handover will take place outside Ukraine.
#pt
All it needed: Asad to weigh in
Let's see
Very brave
More than 50,000 #Ukrainians have fled the country in the last 48 hours, most to Moldova and Poland, according to the UN —
@AFP
#pt
#pt
#pt
The ability to attack Zelensky as a Jew and a Nazi simultaneously is quite something. Many words for it; few printable in family newspapers.
What a world
Plausible on its face. #Russia had to start this without a trigger; can try to justify it retrospectively by "proving" #Ukraine is run by "Nazis".
#pt Even when these false flags get exposed, the impression they seek to create can remain. E.g. Operation LABRADOR in August 1991 was orchestrated by Milosevic's secret police against Jewish targets in Croatia, and even now many think Franjo Tudman was some kind of fascist.
For all the criticisms that can be made of Zelensky's handling in the run-up to this, the man loves his country and has remained at his post in the most dire circumstances any leader could have to face
#pt
Surely not how Putin thought this would be going 48 hours in
Not exactly helpful from the #UAE
"#Kazakhstan, one of #Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in #Ukraine, officials said Friday." nbcnews.com/news/world/liv…
A #Syrian rebel commander who used American anti-tank missiles to destroy newly 150 Asad/Iran system tanks
The shock and ...
#Poland doing her duty, as so often she does for the Western alliance
#pt
#Britain's Prime Minister speaking to #Russians in Russian over the heads of the Putin government
#Ukraine's President says #Russia will try to take the capital tonight
Just a disgusting incitement. Worse if you have #Russian friends and family who are against this despicable action by the #Putin government.
Immense bravery from #Russians in Saint Petersburg protesting their government's assault on #Ukraine.
#Russia attacking #Ukraine's capital
#Ukraine has taken down a second #Russian Il-76 transporter south of Kyiv, according to Ukraine’s State Agency for Special Communications.
"The U.S. government is prepared to help Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky leave Kyiv to avoid being captured or killed by advancing Russian forces ... But so far, the President has refused to go." washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/…
Slight bump in the Russian narrative of a Nazi regime in Ukraine, though doubtless the Kremlin's hirelings and those contemptible beyond redemption who do it for free are able to assimilate this into their propaganda
#pt
Massive downing of internet in Ukraine
#Ukraine's claim of the #Russian casualties from yesterday afternoon
#Britain, the #EU, and #US applied sanctions directly to #Russia's ruler, blade Putin, and his foreign minister Sergey Lavrov
#Britain to continue providing key support to #Ukraine
#France is to *start* supplying materiel to #Ukraine
#France seizes a sanctioned #Russian vessel in the English Channel
This seems undeniably true from #Zelensky, at least as far as #Putin's ideal scenario goes. The speech went on to request the #EU states that are holding out support SWIFT sanctions and encouraging #Russians to keep up internal pressure against the war.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky confirming that he remains in Kyiv as the #Russian invasion gets ever nearer his capital city.
Crazy
#Russia bans the plain use of words to describe its effort to conquer #Ukraine, doing nothing to quell the "1984" talk around the #Putin government
#Ukraine's President Zelensky suggesting #Turkey has closed the the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits to #Russia's warships?
#pt
That makes more sense
Important corrective here as this "news" begins to spread: #Turkey has NOT closed the Straits to #Russia's warships
The only issue going forward is going to be lexicographical: #Belarus cannot in a serious sense be "complicit" since its agency is at an end; it has in all practical senses been re-absorbed under #Russia's rule
Think it is fair to say the momentum at this moment - do not over-read this as a lasting fact - has turned in #Ukraine's favour and against #Russia
The footage out of #Ukraine is just mad
Sanctions on #Russia's Central Bank being given serious consideration
#Germany is *still* trying to block weapons shipments to #Ukraine, and has not even delivered its own offer of 5,000 helmets.
#Ukraine's air force still working
The Russian Defence Ministry has just said #Ukraine uses "gang cars" and fights like "terrorists in Syria" .
#pt
#Russia announcing its intention to escalate its assault after #Ukraine's resistance has proven unexpectedly stiff.
Politically, the tide has turned even more firmly against #Putin than the military situation
#Russia being shut out of #Europe's airspace
Reports that #Biden is authorising covert action to assist #Ukraine, which will be crucial if and when the government falls and has to fight a guerrilla war
#pt
Report #Russia is handing out gas masks to its forces in the Donbas ahead of an effort to stage a provocation using chemicals.

This is a day after #Ukraine warned the Russians were planning a false flag atrocity to be blamed on Kyiv.
Supply flights from the #US have ceased but it seems there will be land routes to #Ukraine
#Israel: Protest in Tel Aviv supporting #Ukraine
Notable
#Russia's systems have been being hacked a lot since this began.
#Taiwan understands (as does #China, for that matter) that #Russia's conquest of #Ukraine is the test-run for the CCP's annexation of Taiwan.
Well ...
#Chechnya's warlord-president and Putin proxy, Ramzan Kadyrov, confirms the deployment of Chechen forces ("Kadyrovtsy") in #Ukraine
— @phildstewart
Extraordinary from #Ukraine
#Belgium sending military resources to #Ukraine
#Russia escalating
#Russia stepping up its shelling attacks in the east of #Ukraine
#Latvia contributing to #Ukraine's defence
#Germany beginning to step up
#Ukraine asked #Israel to mediate with #Russia
So this is happening
#Britain continuing to push a lot of intelligence into the public realm
Video claims to show the downing of a #Russian helicopter near Kyiv today.
Grim: Lev Schlossberg reports #Putin took a "lesson" from 2014 not to have bodies returning home from #Ukraine, hence the mobile crematoriums this time around. Families will be told of deaths, but only other soldiers will know where ashes are scattered. t.me/shlosberg/6332
Very strange to see
Have deleted the video apparently showing Putin's warlord custodian of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, saying Ukraine was better-armed than the Russian army expected. Seems to be a fake.
Boris spoke to Zelensky a little under an hour ago
Given that the Orthodox and Great Russian themes Putin is playing with are real currents, and the present state of repression, it was unclear what the domestic response would be, but Russians have been very clear, all across the country.
#pt One doesn't want to overstate the other way, but if 3,000 Russians have been arrested across 50+ cities protesting against the war, this isn't just a phenomenon of liberals in Moscow and Petersburg, and it makes it difficult to believe Putin has the silent majority with him.
Data point:
#Ukraine's government has just warned of an imminent, massive wave of bombardment - artillery and air strikes, both of which have been employed against the capital by #Russia at various levels from day one.
#pt The war turned against #Russia over the last 24 hours in the sense that the effort to take Kiev with a Spetsnaz operation capturing the airport and key institutions was defeated. But the Kremlin has the force for Plan B and that's coming, seemingly over the next few hours.
#pt Russia has its full military arsenal for this move on Kiev - tanks, artillery, air power - and the intelligence dimension should not be underestimated, from simple deception operations like wearing Ukrainian uniforms, to more complicated provocations and use of agents.
#pt Probably the biggest question now is: When #Russia starts its assault on #Ukraine's capital, what is the scale and placement of the intelligence agent networks it is working with? Does it have a fifth column in the military for a serious mutiny, for example? Find out soon.
#pt Final thought for the day: there have been fragmentary indications for 36 hours or so that #Russia is planning to stage something truly awful, perhaps with chemical WMD, and blame it on the "Ukrainian Nazis" it says run Kiev; important such a thing is not allowed to work.
Thread 👇🏻 Key takeaways: (1) Putin/siloviki made ideologically-influenced judgements about how resistant Ukrainians could and would be; and (2) every level of the Russian army lies to the one above about corruption, so the top doesn't understand the extent
So this happened
"Some" #Russian banks being disconnected from #SWIFT.

More than I expected, honestly, and in practice probably quite a difficult line to walk: such sanctions affect the risk-assessment of banks/companies dealing with Russia as a whole.
#pt White House statement on the #SWIFT sanctions against "selected #Russian banks", restrictions on the Russian Central Bank, targeted sanctions on individuals, and the task force with the EU, Britain, and Canada to look at further measures. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The situation of Kiev prepared for the Russian assault last night
Grant this much to Elon Musk
One tries to avoid cringe Lord of the Rings references, but Jesus
About 1 AM on Feb. 27, #Russia was raining down on Kharkiv
#Russia had large reserves - but held abroad. It was widely assumed Western sanctions wouldn't touch this core cash pile, thus #Putin could weather the storm. Now? Well, we'll see.
The news that went around that the financial director of Russia's state energy company Gazprom had been found dead in Saint Petersburg of an apparent suicide turned out to be false.
UK will ‘of course’ take refugees from Ukraine, says Boris Johnson independent.co.uk/news/uk/boris-…
Needs serious follow-up, but the reason it's plausible is that the morale of #Russia's forces is obviously low
A scene from Kiev last night
Chemistry students mass-producing Molotov cocktails: a society, not just a state, that has mobilised for war in #Ukraine
#Germany is closing its airspace to Russian flights - @AFP
BBC obtains the voice notes sent over WhatsApp on the eve of the #Ukraine invasion from Putin's warlord-president in #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, to his special advisor, Daniil Martynov, who is also the deputy of the Russian National Guard in Chechnya. bbc.com/russian/featur…
#pt Kadyrov knew Putin was going to invade Ukraine at least weeks ago, but when he sent Chechen troops to the border it was to "take part in exercises". When the troops were told what was happening, "many commanders listened to this with bulging eyes", acc to Kadyrov's deputy.
#pt The leaked voice messages show that State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov was coordinating closely with #Chechnya's warlord-president Ramzan Kadyrov to bring Chechen troops into the Russian order of battle for the assault on #Ukraine.
Footage suggests a lot of #Russian wounded soldiers were moved back over the border to #Belarus after last night's attack on Kyiv.
#Chechen troops seem to have taken a serious hit last night, too
Even Tulsi Gabbard thinks Putin has gone too far
#Iran's people understand - even if Western "experts" do not - that the axis between their own regime and the #Russian government is what keeps them in chains
The deliveries of weapons to #Ukraine by #NATO states, which had looked in some ways like a way of assuaging our consciences about what was coming, now look rather more serious, given the inherent weakness of #Russia's army are worse than even I expected
It seems not all of the defenders of Snake Island were killed after telling the Russians to go fuck themselves
#Australia doing its part for the Alliance
Tarek al-Jassem, a Syrian-Ukrainian businessman from Aleppo, a city the Russians razed to the ground in late 2016, has raised a unit on his own money to fight for #Ukraine against this invasion.
#pt
Not exactly reassuring either way
I'm sure it was only one source, but seems very likely #Chechnya coordinating its troop movements by voice notes on WhatsApp [one of man's most cursed inventions] was one way #US intelligence was able to be so sure what #Russia was doing
Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the State Duma, had his plane turned back mid-flight by Sweden and then Finland as he returned from Cuba-Nicaragua, the first top Russian official affected by Europe's denial of airspace permissions washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/…
Thread
#Russia truly has done the impossible: "#Germany to Hike Military Spending in Wake of Ukraine Invasion" thedefensepost.com/2022/02/25/ger…
Even if #Russia prevails, as it still probably will in #Ukraine, the message sent to #NATO is not the one Moscow wanted: it has only highlighted how far the Russians have slipped
A good point. It's also showing which of Trump's supporters were drawn in by the same reflex (and the partisanship that came to surround Putin), and which of them were ideologically committed to the current Russian government.
Important confirmation that #Chechnya has troops operating in the west of #Ukraine, among other things.
"Don't argue, we just need to help Ukraine. ... I signed up for the Homeland Defence Forces. I'm going to fuck Russians up. ...

Oh [you're] Israeli? Israel supports us!"
Heaving fighting ongoing as #Russia attacks Kharkiv
One's heart bleeds, etc.
The #Czechs stepping it up
Surely a lot of propaganda going around, but taken together the information does suggest #Russia is taking heavy casualties
Potentially another effort to first try a minimal-force model to take Kharkiv before #Russia escalates. Have to see.
#pt
Zelensky refuses to meet Russia for negotiations in occupied-Belarus from where his country is being attacked, which is not unreasonable.
Was asked why the carnage #Russia helped inflict on #Syria mattered to us. Now it's asked of #Ukraine. Wonder how close to us this situation has to get before a line is drawn for some.
First footage of #Ukraine's Turkish-made drones in action destroying a #Russian column.
An "International Legion of Territorial Defense of #Ukraine" set up to accept foreign volunteers against the #Russian invasion.

Have serious qualms about such efforts - the long-term troubles. But Kyiv has rather different calculations, understandably.
The Lingua Anglia spreads
#Russian troops caught on camera looting in #Ukraine
Hitting him where it really hurts
Thread
Far more direct than expected from #Britain's government. Suspected it would be a tacit approval of those who wanted to fight for #Ukraine's survival.
#pt
#Ukraine doing well at keeping its own morale up and controlling the international narrative on this war
#Germany's about-face on #Russia is quite something. Scholz also commits to spending the 2% on #NATO going forward.
#pt
I know how she feels
Was für einen Unterschied ein Tag macht
This had been only very slightly obfuscated so far, though never in serious doubt and now clear to all: #Belarus is a direct part of #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Some stats:

- More than 368,000 Ukrainian refugees have fled the country, according to the UN

- A less certain number: Ukraine's Defence Ministry says 4,300 Russian troops have been killed so far and inter alia 27 jets and 26 helicopters downed.
Not a small thing given that the schism of the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches is part of the ideological matrix that has motivated Putin's move against Ukraine.
There's an element of Fidel Castro about Belarus' ruler, Alexander Lukashenko: a Russian satrap who says (and means) things so crazy that even Moscow has its worries about what he will get them into.
#Russia's attack on Kharkiv reportedly repelled
#Putin's motivations in #Ukraine are clearly ideological at root, but this exactly: he made a rational calculation the costs were bearable because the West was weak. Maybe he'll be proved right and all this will pass. But maybe not. Decline is a choice.
More on the Chechens involved in Russia's army
Always to bear in mind
The escalation of Putin's brutality abroad goes along with increasingly coarse repression domestically, too.
#Israel sending aid to #Ukraine, though nothing lethal (yet).
The Uniates were among the most feared of the Churches by the Soviet regime, and Putin's hatred for them is among the hold-overs in his mind from those days.
#pt When Stalin revived the Orthodox Church in the 1940s it was as a creature of the intelligence services. The Uniates (Greek Catholics) refused official space on these terms, and suffered grievously for it. But they prevailed: the Soviet Union is gone, and the Church remains. Image
Two #Russian helicopters reportedly taken down in #Ukraine an hour ago
One hopes the Russian nuclear signalling is just that, but at this stage who would place their own money on it.
#Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs says Russian "pirates" have seized two ships and their civilian crews.
Surely confirming the worst of what the Putin clique feared about Ukraine ...
The first of the #Russian oligarchs to speak against #Putin: Mikhail Fridman, born in Lviv in western Ukraine, sent a letter to staff at his London-headquartered private equity firm LetterOn protesting the "bloodshed" and calling for an end to the war. ft.com/content/9b3ab6…
Vladimir Solovyov, a "journalist" in #Russia and one of #Putin's most loyal propagandists, openly questions what the boss is doing in #Ukraine.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has said he will meet #Belarus' ruler Alexander Lukashenko at the border for negotiations.

Zelensky really should not do this - certainly not in person. news.sky.com/story/ukraine-…
Airspace availability in #Europe continues to shrink for #Russia
Does seem, predictably enough, Zelensky is not going himself to these negotiations in Belarus
Protests in #Belarus tell "#Russia - get out!"
Gross.
#Turkey laying the legal groundwork to shut the Straits to #Russia's warships.
#Russia's Prosecutor General announces that "any kind of assistance to #Ukraine will be regarded as treason". The sentence will be twenty years in prison. interfax.ru/russia/824934
Details on the #Chechen unit destroyed at Hostomel last night. Among other things, General Magomed Tushayev, a senior naval commander who was leading Chechen soldiers, was killed. pravda.com.ua/news/2022/02/2…
#Ukraine has managed to defend Kiev (in the northwest) and Kharkiv (in the northeast), but on the last of the three fronts, in the southeast, #Russia continues advancing reasonably quickly from Crimea.
#Facebook now being restricted in #Russia, after restrictions on #Twitter began yesterday.
Perhaps the denial from Russia is the ultimate confirmation the talks have begun? (They started a quarter of an hour ago in everyone else's reality.)
Confirmation of massive losses of #Russia's equipment
#Russians continue to show great bravery to protest their government's aggression against #Ukraine
From a #US Defence official via @jseldin:
- Russian saboteurs using Ukrainian uniforms
- Two-thirds of Russia's army committed
- No major cities fallen
- Russia still doesn't have air superiority
- 320+ Russian missiles fired
- Russian troops just under 20 miles from Kyiv
Second Russian oligarch seeks distance from the Putin government
With #Twitter and #Facebook already restricted in Russia, #Telegram is now considering restrictions
Amphibious landing by #Russia at Mariupol in southeast #Ukraine
#Ukraine making clear it is willing to engage in diplomacy, but it has little hope of getting anywhere with #Russia, since it is not willing to give up territory
The whole #EU has closed its airspace to #Russia
Oleg Anisimov, the head of #Russia's delegation to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), opened his statement by saying: "Let me present an apology on behalf of all Russians not able to prevent this conflict". france24.com/en/live-news/2…
The #EU has, for the first time in its history, decided to provide collective military support to a country (namely #Ukraine). There is also a collective ban on #Russia's propaganda stations, RT and Sputnik.
Third #Russian oligarch, Anatoly Chubais, signals opposition to #Putin's attack on #Ukraine.
Amid the generally good news for #Ukraine today, the grind of #Russia's advance towards besieging Kyiv has continued.
In Ekaterinburg, the city where the last Tsar - #Russia's God-ordained ruler - was murdered in July 1918, a protester expressed his opposition to what the Putin government is doing by wearing #Ukraine's colours and dragging a cross behind him. He was arrested within ten minutes. Image
We couldn't possibly accept #Kosovo into #NATO. What if it provoked #Russia into doing something insane, like annexing Crimea or trying to conquer the whole of Ukraine?
#Putin has managed to get #Germany to act like a #NATO state and draw #Sweden out of its notorious post-Winter War neutrality - both of which this time last week seemed roughly as likely as finding intelligent life on Russia Today
#EU states will provide #Ukraine with fighter jets, says @JosepBorrellF.
This nonsense from #Russia's state and media should not get a rise out of Westerners. The WW3 threat has been a mainstay in #Syria for years, but when the US actually massacred attacking Russian soldiers, the Kremlin pretended it had never heard of them.
The Russian Orthodox Church now directly blessing a war the Patriarch had only obliquely supported so far. Orthodox conceptions of Russian national unity clearly motivate Putin, and the ROC evidently sees these views as valid representations of the faith.
The Feb. 27 attempt by #Russia to take Kharkiv was a bizarre disaster. Just really unclear what they were thinking.
Thread countering the idea that #Russia's problems in #Ukraine are b/c of poor leadership - certainly a problem, but it argues not decisive. The Russian army is failing at things like logistics that an army has to do simply to exist; it is just bad.
Clearly the Kremlin knew about this deficiency; seems to have tried to make up for it by (a) recruiting Ukrainians in the Donbas; and (b) planning a quick decapitation strike that would bring over some of the Ukrainian army to a puppet government
#Ukraine's army publishes a video of a Turkish-made drone being used to devastate a column of #Russia's tanks, a case in point of poor Russian tactics.
#Belarus rapidly pushes through constitutional changes that could see #Russia's nuclear weapons return to its territory after its de facto re-annexation by Moscow after the last few weeks.
#US displeased with where #Israel has landed over all this.
Berdyansk has fallen to the Russians
If #Russia's war aims can be summarised as two - (1) conquer #Ukraine, restore the borders of the Holy Rus; (2) show that Russia is strong and decisive, against the weakness and division of the West/#NATO - it can be fairly said that (2) has failed, and even (1) is looking shaky.
#Putin clearly bet a lot on the decapitation strike in #Ukraine. Important as it is to highlight the ramshackle nature of Putin's regime, important, too, to say the strategy has logic: if Zelensky is assassinated, it significantly alters the picture.
Air ride sirens in Kyiv. #Ukraine
Devastating currency damage to #Russia.
#Australia moving quickly to support #Ukraine against #Russia's aggression.
#Saudis confirming their commitment to the oil deal with #Russia
Under #Russia's present tactics, trying to avoid overt anti-civilian atrocities, they really do not have good answers to resistance of this kind 👇🏼
#Russia thought #Ukraine's Turkish-made drones would be knocked out in the first hours. That didn't work out.
Zelensky truly rose to the occasion, personally overcoming the EU's dithering about whether to help his country in the face of this attempt to extinguish it.
#Russia continues its effort to isolate and capture #Ukraine's capital
Meant to say yesterday: the restrictions on Facebook in Russia, even more than restricting Twitter, is not a great policy. Facebook functions as one of the main forums for the expression of anti-Putin sentiment.
The view that many in the West, especially in the media, have of Facebook as a hotbed of Trumpian (and for some, this automatically means pro-Putin) propaganda, just does not map onto Russia, where liberals are the main beneficiaries of the site.
#Denmark joins #Britain in giving overt support to volunteers who want to go to support #Ukraine.
Has now been clarified by @nickclegg that Facebook ("Meta") will not be cutting off Facebook and Instagram in Russia, and the restrictions on those platforms are being imposed by the Russian government because they are used for the expression of anti-Putin sentiment.
What a disaster
So it begins ...
#Russia has doubled interest rates before the markets even open today. Properly uncharted territory.
#Russian missiles struck a number of cities in #Ukraine overnight
Let's see where this goes
#Russia's Defence Ministry says it has opened one gap, "along the Kyiv-Vasilkov highway", in its effective siege of Kyiv, through with "all civilians ... can freely leave".

As in #Syria, the implication is that anyone left is fair game for destruction.
Latest from #Britain's Ministry of Defence on the situation in #Ukraine, four days into #Russia's invasion (technically entered the fifth day a couple of hours ago).
Fair to say that this is not 2014, sanctions-wise, from the West
#Putin has managed to cause a break in #Switzerland's neutrality
Even if the numbers who actually go to #Ukraine is in the low hundreds from #Britain, replicate that across the Continent, would be several thousand ... A significant movement of people, and over the long-term an unpredictable dynamic.
#Latvia becomes [I think] the first state to give formal legal cover to its citizens who want to go fight for #Ukraine
Very helpful state-of-play thread by @michaelh992 on the ground situation in #Ukraine, the problems #Russia is having (not only logistically but with morale), and the purpose of these negotiations.
Really grim for Russians domestically
Interesting in all kinds of ways
Probably more like what we can expect in coming days
Notable from #Israel
So that was the announcement
Not good
The admission from #Russia that the sanctions are biting at all is significant
Signs #Russia is beginning to mobilise the resources kept in reserve
What is actually happening
Horrible scenes from Kharkiv
After the #Russians killed ethnic Greeks in Mariupol, #Greece has stepped in to help #Ukraine defend itself
The worst part is that this was not only predictable but expected
#Belarus appears to be building up to send its troops into #Russia's war - right as the Kremlin is pretending to talk peace with #Ukraine
#Ukraine's President Zelensky spoke to the nation a short while ago
#Russia blames #Britain's Foreign Secretary for the heightened nuclear state of alert
On the #US's Russian Central Bank sanctions 👇🏻
#Finland to send lethal weapons to #Ukraine to fight the #Russian invasion.
Follow up:
Very honest from @yairlapid
More sanctions impact
Germany, Sweden, Switzerland ... now #Singapore, all so alarmed by #Russia they're willing to act
#pt
So that's all going well
Those are not negotiating terms from #Russia. It is a demand for #Ukraine's surrender, a demand to be given what Moscow has so far been unable to take on the battlefield
Western intelligence believes the #Ukraine casualty estimates, meaning #Russia has suffered astonishing casualties in the first four days of this as compared with #America over twenty years of war
#Russia continuing to advance in southeast #Ukraine around Mariupol
#Britain leading the effort for sanctions on #Russia's largest bank
#US suspending diplomatic activities in #Belarus
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has signed the official application to join the #EU Image
#Russia's shelling in Kharkiv has killed 11 #Ukrainian civilians, according to the mayor - @AFP
#Italy - one of the #EU states that had been most wary of getting on the wrong side of Moscow because of energy concerns - has signed-off on supplying military aid to #Ukraine
Ships owned, controlled, or charted by #Russia's government, by designated individuals related to it, or flying its flag have been banned from #Britain's ports. Image
#Ukraine's messaging remains strong
Huge explosion in Kyiv, reported by journalists on the ground.
#Russia has turned the #EU in a way that looks irreversible. The great worry is that Brussels reverts to its old ways if and when Kyiv falls (after a decent interval). Seems less and less possible now.
#Turkey's ruler makes a cryptic statement on the Montreux Convention; entirely unclear what he plans to do, if anything, about #Russia's warships passing through the Straits.
That's a step up: when the #US announced the suspension of diplomatic activity in #Belarus earlier today, it advised Americans to consider leaving #Russia; now saying to get out immediately.
#Russia about to harden #Israel's position in favour of #Ukraine, too, after shattering the neutrality of all of Europe.
Report: a 37-year-old #Israeli Jew was shot dead as he tried to leave Kyiv along the #Russian-guaranteed "safe" route to get a bus to one of the borders
The Pentagon said earlier today #Russia still doesn't have air superiority ...
Molotov cocktails being thrown out of cars in #Ukraine against #Russia's tanks
Interesting
The serious point in this is that #Trump has an instinctive feel for narrative: #Ukraine and her President are global symbols for all the things - nation, bravery, resilience - Trump liked to play-act at. Leaves only the Right's ideologues with #Putin.
#Ukraine has offered amnesty and money to #Russian soldiers who lay down their arms
Quite right for #Biden to be so emphatic. When #Russia's government starts with the nukes talk, the first and last response is that given by the French recently: NATO is a nuclear alliance, too.
#Turkey has actually closed the Straits to #Russia's warships. Another state expected to duck for cover during this crisis has come out against Moscow.
#Russian diplomats at the #UN have been expelled from the #US
Veterans of the #Israel Defence Force helping #Ukraine defend the capital from #Russia.
Thermobaric weapons apparently being brought into play by #Russia in #Ukraine
Satellite pictures show #Russia's convoy approaching Kyiv, stretches over 40 miles. The slow-down after the Spetsnaz operation to capture the capital failed seems to have been to allow logistics to catch up for the full-force assault.
#EU donating planes to #Ukraine for her defence against #Russia's invasion
A retreat of #Russian forces in the north-east of #Ukraine. Likely doesn't change the outcome, but the morale problems of the Russian army are pretty undeniable at this stage.
#pt
Not the welcome from the Little Russians that Putin seems to have expected
#Australia providing #Ukraine with lethal support against #Russia's invasion.
Does seem very likely that #Russia has not yet gone #Syria-style at #Ukraine's cities for political reasons - but that that decision will change soon.
Rally in #Israel calling for Iron Dome to be given to #Ukraine to defend herself against #Russia.

Incidentally, this is what people who genuinely want to "stop the war" look like.
Geopolitics is a cold-blooded business. Letting #Russia set up shop as the go-to actor in the Middle East over #Syria was such an epochal disaster.
#Hungary has not corrected course where it really matters with regard to #Russia
A lot of #Jews have mobilised to defend #Ukraine's government. Not quite what one would expect if #Russia was right about it being a "Nazi junta".
The escalation of repression within #Russia is a story that should be kept in mind alongside what is being inflicted on #Ukraine.
This is likely true
#pt
#Ukraine has very successfully messaged/lobbied to the West to get what she needs for defence against #Russia so far. Have to see if that remains.
The #Czechs are cracking down on seditious activity during this confrontation with #Russia
This hints very strongly that the #US has human intelligence sources around #Putin, which is something I must confess to having been sceptical of. Doubtless time will tell.
#Israel rejected a direct request from #Ukraine for Stinger missiles. Senator Lindsay Graham is being sent to talk to the Israelis and "push them to reverse course".
Short thread on what #Russia's air force is doing in #Ukraine 👇🏼 It's relative absence so far might not be purely a political decision about the day-after; there are serious problems with Moscow's own air defence systems and its pilots are not well trained
#Taiwan understands the fight for #Ukraine is its own struggle, too.
Many #Russians protesting what their government is doing, at great personal risk for their futures
Hostomel was where the #Russians landed trying for a decapitation strike against #Ukraine.
#pt
New speech from #Ukraine's President Zelensky
YouTube has blocked the Russian state channels, RT and Sputnik, in Europe - @AFP
Thread 👇🏼 A caution that #Russia has so far run a war that is not what it has trained for, and the reporting is slanted by domestic political considerations presenting it at home as Donbas-focused, ceding the information environment in the west to Kyiv.
Asadists will Asadist, at home and abroad
"Valery Gergiev, the star Russian maestro and prominent supporter of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, was removed Tuesday from his post as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic after he refused to denounce Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine." nytimes.com/2022/03/01/art…
#Russia moving on Kherson in southeast #Ukraine
Two #Russian helicopters downed near Kyiv
#Belarus' ruler Alexander Lukashenko says his country won't be sending troops to support #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - which seems neither to be true nor in Lukashenko's hands. reuters.com/world/europe/b…
A student from #India killed by the #Russian shelling in Kharkiv
#Ukraine continues to peacefully hinder the #Russian army, which is not yet ready for overt, mass anti-civilian warfare
#Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced that Russia will host the first International Anti-Fascist Congress in August.
#Pakistan continues as it does
#Russia's operational security continues to be dire. Potential for this to damage Russian morale even further and encourage soldiers to accept Kyiv's offer of giving it up, if war crimes charges etc. start being prepared.
#NATO shoring-up the eastern flank due to the entirely reasonable fears that #Russia will not stop at #Ukraine
Mariupol under all-out assault in southeast #Ukraine
The Kremlin saying it recognises Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate President of #Ukraine ...
#France setting out the new policy towards #Russia
More #Chechens fighting on #Ukraine's side
Zelensky's speech to the EU Parliament
A lot of communications from #Russian soldiers in #Ukraine has been leaked and does not show an army functioning very well, neither in logistics or morale 👇🏼
Longer section of Zelensky's speech at the EU
When leaders lead, people will follow. #Germany
On the #Russian troops abandoning weapons systems
#Ukraine has attacked inside #Russia again
#pt
Pictures from the devastation of Volnovakha yesterday
#Russia has continued advancing in the south-east of #Ukraine
#EU will not be sending fighter jets to #Ukraine
The long train of #Russian troops preparing to besiege Kyiv has 15,000 troops
Safe to say the modernisation of #Russia's army has been rather overstated, even making allowances for the special considerations that have gone into the #Ukraine operation and the seeming fact the military brass didn't know about it until very late
#Russia on course to have shattered the neutrality even of #Ireland
#Britain with near-daily weapons shipments to #Ukraine
Another one for those trying to associate #Ukraine's government with Nazism ...
#Britain says #Russia still doesn't have control of the airspace over #Ukraine
#US still allowing itself to be restrained by legalism from providing #Ukraine with actionable intelligence in a war #Russia's government openly defines as being targeted at the US/NATO (which it believes control the Nazis in Kiev)
Scenes of #Syria-like devastation by #Russia's army in western #Ukraine. This has already been seen in the east.
After #Russia announced it would target communications in Kyiv earlier today
Video of Muslim troops in #Russia's invading army praying in front of a #Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
#Russia's airstrikes on the TV tower in Kyiv an hour ago damaged the memorial for Babi Yar, one of the most infamous massacres of Jews by the #Nazis in the phase of the Holocaust before the Wannsee decision on industrialised extermination
The presence of this fifth column might also explain why #Putin thought this would go so much more quickly than it has in #Ukraine. And, in fairness, he might yet be broadly right: this is only six days in.
Seems #Russia's performance is even waking up #Israel to the fact that the Russians have never "allowed" them to carry out strikes in #Syria; there was not a damn thing the Russians could do to stop them.
#Belarus' ruler perhaps giving away where #Russia is taking this in #Ukraine
"Pre-emptive" would not really be the right word for #Ukrainian strikes on #Belarus, which has been de facto annexed by #Russia. Properly speaking such strikes would be "retaliatory".
Noteworthy:
Credit where it's due
Well ...
This is a start
#pt
Unsurprising but something to be remembered and kept in mind as we move forward (as with #China): #Iran gives effective support to #Russia's actions in #Ukraine (despite, e.g., the obvious, already-seen consequences for Muslim populations like the Tatars)
Bizarre. Little reason to think #Russia needs child soldiers to pad out the numbers. Be interesting to see how this story unfolds.
A #Russian jet hit and possibly downed near Kharkiv.
Should have mentioned above: the map Lukashenko is pointing at, showing #Ukraine divided, also seems to show it being invaded from #Transnistria, the Russian-occupied part of Moldova. Just as #Russia has annexed the #Belarus staging ground, no reason to think #Moldova isn't next.
Horrible
Bad news within #Russia: the general prosecutor has ordered restrictions on "Echo of Moscow", the most popular radio station (and the most liberal), which is down entirely in Moscow and perhaps soon elsewhere. The last time this happened was during the 1991 coup.
Best I can tell there are similar restrictions on the independent television station Dozhd, and there are murmurs about Russia moving to restrict at some level or another Wikipedia
Zelensky spoke with Biden
#Russia is attacking Kyiv
#Russia sent a killer squad of #Chechens to murder #Ukraine's President Zelensky; they have been destroyed, according to the Kyiv government.
Apple says it has "paused" all product sales in Russia - @AFP

Not sure this kind of thing makes sense, and doubly suspicious when it is not applied to #China.
#Canada has banned #Russia's ships from its ports.
A thread on the outlook as the Aleppo-Grozny phase begins 👇🏻
Seems like a good use of Parliamentary privilege
Video from earlier today of #Russian soldiers looting in Kherson, #Ukraine.
#Putin has signed a decree stopping #Russians leaving the country with more than $10,000, attempting to stop capital flight after the imposition of sanctions. news.am/eng/news/68931…
#Italy further disengaging from #Russia
#Ukrainian civilians showing photographs/videos of dead #Russian soldiers to Russian soldiers in Konotop in the Sumy Oblast, asking facetiously if they recognise anyone.
The Ukrainian government claims to have destroyed a large number of #Russian troops in south-east #Ukraine.
#pt
A sensible thread on dealing with the #Putin government: Western "reasonableness" - always focusing on "de-escalation" for fear of being hurt - is interpreted by the literal gang of mafiosos in power as submitting, and acknowledging our subordination
#Turkey has seemingly closed its airspace to #Russia, a more important move in some ways than closing the Straits.
#Israel to vote in UNGA against #Russia, but continues to stress making this "moral position … clear … in a way that will maintain our freedom of operations against Iran in the region", which is based on the belief Russia 'allows' Israel to act in Syria
Notable that the assessment is now that Kyiv will last weeks rather days. Russian incompetence and Ukrainian resistance were on an unexpected scale.
There it is: #Turkey has not exactly closed the Straits to #Russia's warships
Further internal dissent in #Russia
Important to recognise the Russian dissent because there have been assignations of collective guilt to, and calls for collective measures against, Russians, in revenge for the actions of the mafia syndicate that holds their country hostage and now so brazenly threatens us all.
Jewish Ukrainians, father and son, praying before they go into battle to defend their country from the Russian invaders.

[picture via @shlomo_rizel] Image
"An order barring #Russian-owned and -operated aircraft from #US airspace is expected to be issued as soon as within the next 24 hours, said some of the people." wsj.com/articles/u-s-e…
#Russia sent troops to "restore order" in #Kazakhstan in January; seems the resultant regime was not *quite* as pliable as Moscow wanted. If invasions of disobedient borderland states don't fully workout, try, try again, I guess ...
Boeing sanctioning #Russia
Very significant: 201 (arch)priests and deacons of the Russian Orthodox Church sign an open letter calling for the #Putin government to immediately call off the war against #Ukraine, whose people "should make their choice on their own, not at gunpoint". docs.google.com/forms/d/1yOGuX…
Notable, too, the Russian Orthodox clergy call for anti-war protesters in #Russia to be protected: "No non-violent call for peace ... should be forcibly suppressed and considered illegal, for such is the divine commandment: 'Blessed are the peacemakers'."
Strong start from #Biden on #Ukraine. "Light will win over darkness", says the President, a conviction that has guided Christendom these many centuries. #SOTU
Often more a wish than a statement of reality, but even in this secularised age, the assumption remains.
Dubious whether John Bolton should even have gone on Newsmax, but once there he was having none of it with this narrative of Trump having been tough on Russia.
A poetry reading from a #Ukrainian soldier - in #Persian
#Putin's declares the war aim "denazifying" #Ukraine, while sending a Wagner hit squad whose core is made up of Nazis to murder the Jewish President of Ukraine. And Rightist extremists tied to Russian intelligence are a problem well beyond Ukraine. aijac.org.au/fresh-air/russ…
Important point: the Soviet narrative of its role in the Second World War as an "anti-fascist struggle" is a key part of modern Russia's national myth, and is part of what has enabled this attack on Ukraine. But it is a precise inversion of the truth. aijac.org.au/fresh-air/russ… Image
More than 50 men from #Japan, many of them military veterans, heading out to fight for #Ukraine against the #Russian invasion
#Ukraine's President Zelensky speaking (in English) to CNN, says he is prepared to negotiate peace with #Russia, but is well aware that Moscow might simply be wasting time as it builds up for an escalated attack on his country
More details on the #Ukrainian soldier who recited #Persian poetry, a clip which went viral in #Iran, where people were overwhelmingly sympathetic to Ukraine's cause (unlike the clerical regime, which has stood by its #Russian ally).
Brings up De Gaulle's line that Brazil's greatness is in the future - and always will be.
Cannot be overstated how important it is to Putin's authority this narrative of bringing order and broadly shared prosperity after the disaster in Russia of the 1990s; it's something even many opponents will concede him. Now he has demolished this pillar.
Jailed opposition leader in #Russia Alexey Navalny, calls for protests against the Putin government for its invasion of Ukraine
#Russia has pushed #Romania into taking steps towards being a serious member of the Alliance
#Russia moving its so-called ISIS Hunters - they never actually fought ISIS is any meaningful way in Syria; just mainstream rebels and civilians - into Ukraine.
#Russia potentially moving into place the man toppled in the 2014 Maidan events for use as puppet leader of #Ukraine after the conquest of the capital.
Hopefully now it's obvious how cynical is this "world war" talk from Moscow
Reports #Russian soldiers have sabotaged their equipment to avoid going into battle against #Ukraine.
"More than 150 former [#British] paratroopers who served in #Afghanistan are on their way to fight on the front line with #Ukraine against #Russia, along with ex-special forces soldiers".

After what @trussliz said, be a scandal to prosecute these people.
thetimes.co.uk/article/army-v…
#pt I'm very wary of encouraging this "foreign fighter" flow to #Ukraine, but there is a difference in them joining a sovereign state's army to a non-state actor, and the official messaging that encouraged them makes it difficult to justify bringing legal charges against them.
Pressure grows in #India to condemn old friend #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine reuters.com/world/india/pr…
Solid piece on the #Russian Army's disastrous failing at, well, being an army
Today's thread of events. Managed to put it in the wrong thread again
In other words #China knew what #Russia was up to all along the way the #US was begging Peking to help stop it and all the CCP did was ask for the start date to be moved:

"China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say" nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/…
Biden is sending Stinger missiles to Ukraine for the first time, which could be used to shoot down Russian helicopters businessinsider.com/president-bide…
Seems #Turkey might actually be taking steps against #Russia's war effort in #Ukraine. Still unclear at present what has actually been done or how.
The poster #Iran's militias put up in #Iraq supporting #Putin lasted an hour
#Russia's government accusing #Japan of supporting another Nazi regime, when the plain fact is - without even getting into the nonsense about #Ukraine being a Nazi state - the Soviet Union provided more support to Hitler than the Japanese ever did.
The dysfunction of #Russia's army when trying to do even the basics is something #NATO has surely taken some solace from during this crisis.
#Spain to send weapons to #Ukraine
#Turkey has sent more drones to #Ukraine
Couple of the most important things from today:
#pt
#pt
#pt
Reasonable
The estimates of #Russian fatalities are a bit various, but taking together Western intelligence assessments (officially given and leaked) with the available footage and local reporting, seems clear it is in the thousands, rather than in the hundreds.
Can't believe it remains an argument about the status of relations between #Russia and #China, as if the right words from the West will create an encore of the Sino-Soviet split
Important thread on the way corruption has hollowed out the most basic maintenance processes needed for #Russia's military vehicles, opening up immense vulnerabilities for #Ukraine to exploit in this war.
#Russia engaging its encirclement strategy against urban areas across #Ukraine. For now, only one major city down.
Making all conceivable allowances for Kremlin political considerations restraining #Russian actions, the late transmission of the invasion order for #Ukraine, the unexpectedly fierce resistance and European reaction, this is still unambiguously terrible
As in #Syria, the stated #US policy is to rely on easily-weaponised NGOs during #Russian-directed sieges, with their attendant deprivation and starvation, which has a special, terrible resonance in #Ukraine.
The mood within #Russia is so different to 2014, when there was a lot of popular pressure on liberals, accusing them of being unpatriotic for not supporting annexing Crimea. Now, open letters circulate in every organisation against the war, demos all over.
More bad news for #Russia's economy
The provision of #US actionable intelligence is one of the realistic things than can make a serious difference for #Ukraine at this stage.
#Russia preparing an amphibious assault on #Odessa, to be launched from #Crimea, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Image
One million #Ukrainians have fled their country in the week since #Putin's invasion
In #Russia, "Echo of Moscow", the largest and most liberal radio station, has been dissolved.
Very helpful thread 👇🏻
#Russia will commence an amphibious assault on #Odessa today
#US officials last night said #Russia had fired 450 missiles into #Ukraine
Thread on the lessons for #Ukraine from the "Winter War", the #Soviet attack on #Finland, which was, as is now forgotten, the main global story in late 1939 and early 1940, when people briefly understood Stalin was Hitler's partner and equal in aggression
#pt The low morale of #Soviet troops during the attack on #Finland during the Winter War was one of the most notable aspects. ImageImage
The #UAE's abstained last week from voting for the UNSCR condemning #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine "largely due to frustrations over the #US response to an attack on Abu Dhabi six weeks earlier [by #Iran's Huthis]". axios.com/uae-security-c…
As the anniversary of the "February Revolution" approaches, worth remembering it was a military mutiny, not a popular uprising. Some lessons to be applied in targeting the morale of #Russia's conscripts in #Ukraine, who are already confused and deprived. forbes.com/sites/craighoo…
Unclassified update from the #British Ministry of Defence about #Russia's war in #Ukraine
(If interested in the history of the "February Revolution", a story of military mutiny and elite intrigue, more than popular rejection of the Russian monarchy, see kyleorton.co.uk/2021/12/19/the…)
More on the siege conditions already afflicting #Ukraine's cities as #Russia encircles them
#Russia using medical vehicles for the transport of weapons, something #Iran's IRGC has been well-known to do
#Russian air defence teams manning the S-400s have begun a combat training exercise in the Novosibirsk Region of Siberia, according to the press office of the Central Military District.
Situation rapidly deteriorating in Mariupol
#Ukraine's President Zelensky says 16,000 foreigners are on their way to fight for his government against the #Russian invasion. unian.net/war/pervye-iz-…
#France continues its efforts with #Russia
A senior #Russian Spetsnaz commander has been killed in #Ukraine
A #Bangladesh-owned ship hit in the Black Sea
"Councils across England are seeking to cut ties with the Russian energy firm Gazprom in protest at the invasion of Ukraine. ... UK local authorities ... reportedly paid £29m to Gazprom from 2016 to 2021." bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Planning for the day-after
In response to the Metropolitan Evlogy of Sumy and Akhtyrka in north-east #Ukraine suspending commemoration of the #Russian Patriarch, Patriarch Kirill expressed "regret" for the decision and said "everyone who creates [schism] will answer before God" tass.ru/obschestvo/139…
After #France's President Emmanuel Macron had a telephone call with #Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin, a Macron aide said "worse is to come" and the Russians intend to seize the "whole" of #Ukraine - @AFP
In #Russia, a bill has been submitted to the State Duma that would conscript into the military anybody arrested for protesting against the Russian invasion of #Ukraine.

This does not seem like a move that would help morale in the army ...
t.me/bbbreaking/117…
#Putin's government is today carrying a lesson in all schools in #Russia to inform children about the Nazi regime in #Ukraine and the #NATO threat to the country that provoked the war, so from that perspective the BBC must be considered quite threatening.
Another horrible long term consequence of this war, another tear in the fabric of #Russian society, another cleavage that hinders moves towards a stable, accountable, national government that doesn't threaten its own population or neighbouring states
Really horrendous developments within #Russia these last few days
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin Press Secretary, was asked whether detained anti-war protesters would be conscripted into fighting #Russia's war in #Ukraine, and replied that they would not: "Military service is a privilege, not a punishment."
#China repaid for running point as #Russia built up to the invasion of #Ukraine, even handing Moscow intelligence the US passed to Peking while begging the CCP to stop Putin, with five if its citizens killed by Russian clumsiness and brutality
Copium hitting hard at the Kremlin
Interesting
This is depressingly familiar from #Syria.
Devastation inflicted by #Russia just outside Kiev
Interview with #Ukraine's President Zelensky. Does not want his and his country's struggle to be a historical legend like the 300 Spartans; wants help while there is still time to save the state and the nation.
#pt Zelensky's address earlier on
#US is to share "real time" intelligence with #Ukraine
#Putin keeps explaining his ideology: (1) #Ukraine is not a real country, merely a lost province of #Russia; and (2) Kyiv is ruled by neo-Nazis [with the implication that this invasion is a continuation of the mythical Soviet "Great Patriotic War"]
Air raid sirens in Lviv.
Turns out the initial reporting was not quite as presented
Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna, the (disputed) head of the Romanov Family since 1992, the great-great-grandaughter of the Tsar-Liberator Alexander II (r. 1855-81), with a rather weak statement obliquely condemning #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine
Seems the Aleppo phase is beginning.
The kind of thing that in an ideal world would be avoided
"The BBC said this week that it would use [shortwave] radio frequencies that can travel for long distances and be accessible on portable radios to broadcast its World Service news in English for four hours a day in Kyiv ... and in parts of Russia."
#Ukraine's President obliquely criticises #Israel's leadership
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has truly risen to the occasion, with a fight for the existence of the state and the nation forced upon him. His oratory is clear what Ukrainians are fighting for - and has repeatedly (successfully) shamed Europe for dragging its feet in helping. ImageImage
That's a good move: #US moves to make sure #Ukrainians within the US are not at risk of having to go back to am active war zone
Interesting piece on the motives of #Japan's volunteers coming to fight for #Ukraine's government
A video clip shows #Russian soldiers complaining about being abandoned, without shelter, by the High Command that was supposed to withdraw them - and which had sent them into #Ukraine after bringing them up to the border by claiming it was "an exercise"
Image
A horrible episode inflicted on Chernihiv by Russia
A number of Syrians (and Afghans), driven from their countries by Russian-aided/abetted aggression, now find themselves under threat from Moscow again in exile in Ukraine
#Poland's Ambassador in Kyiv not intimidated by what #Russia has imposed on #Ukraine's capital
Seeing the statement in full, @PressSec is either lying or the #US is providing #Ukraine with real time intelligence in this war
#China continues supporting #Russia at many layers of its society
#Russia has tried to kill #Zelensly three times in the past week, using #Wagner "mercenaries" (GRU), who remain in the capital and allegedly plan to try again, and #Chechen special forces. Kyiv claims it was tipped off by anti-war elements of the #FSB. thetimes.co.uk/article/zelens…
#pt Not really buying that using Wagner to kill Zelensky gives Russia "deniability"; one of the important pieces of data from this war is confirmation that Wagner is a state entity - an open part of Russia's Army. (Sceptical of @thetimes claim the FSB is leaking to Kyiv, too.)
Not unlike Syria's opposition, Zelensky asking that the West either protect Ukrainian civilians from aerial bombardment or let them defend themselves: "If you don't have the strength to provide a no-fly zone, then give me planes. Would that not be fair?"
#Russia still not opening the stock market
Thread on where we stand as the ninth day of the war dawns.
The mercies in the #Putin system, particularly the relative openness of the online and media environment, has been radically restricted already in just the last few days; looks like a trend that is going to get much worse.
Some very confusing #US messaging on this issue of whether real-time intelligence is being provided to #Ukraine - presumably intentionally, since the Biden people worry about the legalism of being a participant in a war the US is clearly a party to
#Ukraine's air defences holding, which definitely was not part of #Russia's plan nine days in.
An environmental disaster in Odessa, but the attack has not begun yet.
More abandoned #Russian weaponry (the good stuff, too)
Looking very grim for Kherson, the one major town in #Ukraine the #Russians have so far occupied
Zelensky's team controlling the messaging so well in the west of #Ukraine (made easier by #Russia virtually leaving the field to them, portraying a Donbas-focused war at home) has had many concrete benefits; does also mean blindspots/imbalances in coverage
#NATO secretary general rejects #Ukraine's request for a no-fly zone to stop #Russian warplanes targeting civilians en masse.
#Russia has begun already blocking humanitarian access in areas it agreed to in #Ukraine, which have been besieged by Russian forces.
*Slightly* different tone from Purin. Can easily read too much into it, but notable all the same.
BBC will continue being broadcast via Tor into Russia
Sons of #Putin's proxy ruler of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, are headed to #Ukraine as part of #Russia's army.
A fragment of a #Russian missile has landed in the courtyard of the presidential dacha of #Ukraine's President Zelensky, whose only comment on the matter was: "Missed". rbc.ua/ukr/news/dvor-… Image
A law has been sent to #Russia's State Duma expanding prosecutors' access to Russians' personal details, ostensibly to fight crime, looks a lot more like part of the transformation of #Russia into a "harder" autocracy in the wake of the #Ukraine invasion.
#Russia is reportedly planning to stage a demonstration "welcoming" its troops occupying Kherson, but before that a genuine protest has broken out by #Ukrainians against this imposition.
The #Putin state's efforts to subjugate #Ukraine abroad have been accompanied by a grave crackdown domestically on all the little pockets of dissent that had been allowed for #Russians
Notable
First fighter from #Belarus killed fighting for #Ukraine against #Russia's invasion
Messaging from #Ukraine against the #Chechens, one of the most feared/hated contingents of the #Russian army - not for its military prowess, but its criminality and brutality towards civilians
This is important: an acknowledgement of the scale of the casualties #Russia has suffered so far in #Ukraine, and the use of conscripts, which is politically extremely dangerous for #Putin domestically.
The #BBC has "temporarily suspend[ed]" operations in #Russia after new "laws" cracking down on press freedom
On it goes
Extraordinary scene from Prague's Wenceslas Square, with #Czechs gathered in support of #Ukraine as her President Zelensky addressed them by video-link.
#Twitter was blocked earlier tonight in #Russia.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has brought up his #Judaism during the attack by #Russia, rallying world Jewry (and by extension the Christian world) by invoking the Tanakh narratives of the righteous who prevail against [seemingly] overwhelming odds. themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/04/ukr…
This precaution wasn't even necessary in Soviet times
Scandal in #Germany: the weapons sent to #Ukraine were unusable, and the government is investigating whether its decision was deliberately subverted by the military.
Many #Russians leaving and many others looking for a way out as #Putin transforms the country from a relatively open authoritarian kleptocracy into a "hard" autocracy
An important assessment by one of the few people who has been right about how this is going to go all the way along.
#Putin has created such fear of #Russia, majorities in #Finland and #Sweden now want to join #NATO
Another assessment that gives the #Russian military weeks before it is unsustainable in #Ukraine in this form.
Even after three American administrations hell-bent on dismantling the Empire, the population is not so keen on letting it go.
Sadly predictable
#Russia's isolation from the world continues
Mad
#Ukraine officially publishes footage that had been circulating of a #Russian plane taken down over Chernihiv
This is very familiar from Russian conduct in Syria
What a sight
#pt
Shades of what the Soviets did in Afghanistan
When you consider that on paper #Russia should have had air control over #Ukraine on the third day of the war, at the latest ... which was six days ago.
Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war reuters.com/world/europe/p…
This cuts against more concrete evidence
#Russia furious with #Britain ... so we've done alright
Many #Jews have been involved in the fight for #Ukraine
#pt
Citizens of #Azerbaijan killed by #Russian shelling in #Ukraine
#Finland getting weapons from #Israel as part of its defensive build-up against #Russia
#Israel has joined the sanctions against #Russia
#Israel's Prime Minister has been in #Russia
#Zelensky still pushing for fighter jets to be sent to #Ukraine
#Cyprus - a state notoriously infiltrated with Russian influence - joining in the measures against #Russia
More protests in #Israel against #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia has taken an #American hostage
What a difference a few days make ... Not so long ago, #Germany was wrapping itself in its own history to avoid sending weapons to #Ukraine because the lesson was that never being involved in a war was the right thing.
Seems the similarity in approach #Israel and #Turkey have so far taken towards #Russia is now a material convergence
#Britain's Ministry of Defence says what must be obvious: #Russia's talk of a "ceasefire" in #Mariupol is an effort to deflect international criticism as it builds up to attack the city and to shift the blame for the civilian casualties during the assault
Looks like a #Ukrainian missile was shot down within #Russia, in Belgorod.
Not a new thing from the #Russian leadership in its rhetoric, and, of course, the clear intent of this invasion is to destroy #Ukraine as a state.
The son of #Iran's last Shah declares his support for #Ukraine and its President.

(The current Iranian regime has sided with #Russia)
A letter that appears to be from within the #FSB, Russia's premier intelligence agency, has been leaked, which strongly criticises the conduct of the #Russian operation in #Ukraine.
The Roman Church has tepidly criticised #Russia's attempt to extinguish #Ukraine, but remains opposed to the weapons shipments to Kiev that might hinder that project. The Pope believes there are negotiations to be had on whether Ukraine continues to exist. international.la-croix.com/news/religion/…
In the towns of Schastia and Volnovakha in #Ukraine, the tactics #Russia showed in #Syria can be seen: "the barrage of shelling, rocket assaults and airstrikes since the start of the war has damaged or destroyed nearly every building in their towns" theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…
Dockworkers at the Stanlow refinery in Ellesmere Port, on the Wirral in northwest England, have refused to unload Russian oil. Unite the Union said in a letter to refinery owner, Essar Group (India) that it didn't matter what flag Russian oil arrived under theguardian.com/business/2022/…
#pt "The Stanlow refinery ... is a key source of oil in the north-west of England, and is supported by a key trading relationship with Litasco, a fuel trading firm owned by Russia’s second largest oil company, Lukoil. The action at Stanlow came as gas prices hit record highs"
#pt "In the UK, some consignments of Russian oil and gas have still been able to arrive, notably at Foyle Port in Northern Ireland and Tranmere on Merseyside."
Another thread on the catastrophic logistics situation for #Russia's Army in #Ukraine.

Also highlights a general point that often gets undersold: the extent and depth of the damage Bolshevism did to Russia, from which it still has not recovered
#British volunteers arrive in #Ukraine
Surreal
Nine #Russian planes confirmed downed in #Ukraine
If #Ukraine is going to prevail, it will be by destroying these #Russian trucks, which Moscow is barely able to keep functional now and with the sanctions will be unable to replace
The disappearance of Ivan Urgant and people like him from #Russia's media is part of this process to Putin creating a much more grim, total autocracy.
#US trying to pull away one of #Russia's imperial possessions, #Venezuela. Good luck with that. Among other things, #Iran remains deeply embedded in Caracas and able to maintain the Chavista regime, even with Moscow distracted in #Ukraine.
The numbers were always shaky with #Russia's plan. As best I can tell, the effort was to make up for the deficiency by swiftly decapitating Kyiv and make up the numbers by annexing the remnants of #Ukraine's army, plus Belarus troops and Donbas recruits
The script for this year is wild
Points for #Israel trying, I guess.
A state launching an aggressive war against a neighbour on the pretext of "de-Nazifying" it might be expected to steer clear of fascist aesthetic in its war propaganda, but here we are.
Has been an extraordinary effort all around
Pentagon says #Ukraine still has much of its air capabilities available to it, probably the most serious failing of #Russia's invasion, which should have knocked this out in the first hours (or at most days) of the war.
The #US being clear that #Russia wishes to extinguish #Ukraine as a state. Important to bear in mind. "Invasion" does not fully capture what the Kremlin is attempting here.
Horrible
#Japan revising its vision of #Russia from partner to security challenge
This is the other side of the difficulties #Russia is having: especially with the political necessity now for Putin to speed this along, it will fall back on what it can do and what has proven successful elsewhere: mass-attacks with a heavy civilian toll.
Plausible report on how narrow a slice of the #Russian elite were aware that #Putin meant for total conquest in #Ukraine.
A lot of things in #Britain that had been normalised w/r/t #Russia's influence networks in London, attracting protests only from activists and analysts following this, are now going to become national embarrassments. Long overdue.
Extraordinary
Would be something fitting about #US Lend Lease to #Ukraine to hold off #Russia's aggression, reversing the disastrous mistake of supplying the Soviets once their Nazi allies turned on them and keeping up supplies even when used to conquer Eastern Europe
#Russia's invasion in January to suppress the demonstrations in #Kazakhstan and shore-up a loyalist government has not resulted in a complete puppet, it seems, which might well mean the Kazakhs are in danger of a "corrective" operation.
Turns out relying on #Russia over the #Iran nuclear deal was not such a wise move, another shocking revelation from this invasion of #Ukraine
Ukraine's #Jews suffering grievously from #Russia's assault
[At least some in] #India beginning to realise that its softline posture with #Russia is not in the national interest, even in the narrowest sense of securing safe passage out of #Ukraine for her citizens
More on #Russian Army rank-and-file having no idea the scale of the #Ukraine invasion until the very last moment. (Most had guessed late on, just before #Putin's speech on Feb. 24, they were going in, but believed it was a Donbas operation).
"US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told the BBC that he is convinced Ukraine can win its war with Russia. He could not say how long the conflict would last, but insisted that Ukraine's defeat was not inevitable." bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Video of a #Russian airstrike in #Kharkiv, one of the major #Ukrainian cities currently under attack.
Irpin under assault
Important signal from #Belarus
#pt There have been a number of signs that #Belarus' military, including at quite senior levels, objects to joining in #Russia's attack on #Ukraine.
Mariupol trying again for a ceasefire with #Russia to evacuate civilians after the failure yesterday
#Israel in regular contact with #Ukraine's President Zelensky
A lot of #US veterans, horrified by what Biden allowed to transpire in #Afghanistan, are signing up to help prevent #Ukraine going under to America's enemies.
The #Syria template again: #Russia has attacked the "humanitarian corridor" it ostensibly agreed to so civilians could leave Irpin. Moscow did the same in Mariupol yesterday; have to see if the attempt again today goes any better.
"Syrians celebrate Ukraine capturing Russian pilot [Major Krasnoyartsev] accused of Aleppo air strikes" telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
#Russia has attacked the Vinnytsia Airport in central #Ukraine
There it is: #Russia attacked the "humanitarian corridor" out of Irpin earlier today, just as it had in Mariopol yesterday and now again.
Notable
Two more #Russian planes down (so far) today
All space now closed for independent media in #Russia, which had been quite thriving, despite the obvious red lines the state had imposed.
New statement from #Ukraine's President Zelensky: reports that eight #Russian missiles hit Vinnytsia Airport; calls for a Western no-fly zone, or at the least to send the support that would allow the Ukrainians to defend themselves against air attacks
#Putin reiterates in a call with #Erdogan that Russia will accept Ukraine's surrender of its sovereignty, or it will impose this outcome with violence.

Again, there is nothing to negotiate about here.
Reports of #Syrians being sent to #Ukraine are (so far) false, reports @Mzahem_Alsaloum.
Something to watch:
#Israel, at long last, coming to recognise #Russia's weakness. Next step is for Jerusalem to free itself of the belief the Russians "allow" them to strike at #Iran in #Syria; the Russians have never been able to do a thing to stop the Israelis.
#Russians continue to protest against #Putin's attempt to extinguish #Ukraine. This one is near the Bolshoi theatre in Moscow. Extremely brave given the harsh penalties that always existed for dissent of this kind, which were recently increased.
Full translation of #Ukrainian President Zelensky's most recent statement after the #Russian attack on Vinnytsia Airport
Police in Ekaterinburg beat a #Russian protester against #Putin's war on #Ukraine.
Does not really do justice to describe a "shift" in #Germany's domestic political opinion after the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine
.@BorisJohnson proposes:
1. Coalition to deal with the refugees
2. More defensive weapons to Ukraine
3. More economic pressure on Putin
4. No normalisation of Russian conquest
5. Keep diplomatic channels open
6. Buttress NATO, threatened non-NATO states
nytimes.com/2022/03/06/opi…
#pt @BorisJohnson: "We despair of the decision to send young, innocent Russians into a futile war. ... We have failed to learn the lessons of Russian aggression. For too long, we have turned the other cheek. No one can say we were not warned".
#Russian troops have fired on an anti-occupation demonstration in the conquered city of Nova Kakhovka, one of the first times this has happened since the invasion of #Ukraine. The Russians have been trying to avoid flagrant anti-civilian crimes so far.
Much better map of the real extent of #Russia's control in #Ukraine
Unsurprising but no less disgraceful: Patriarch Kirill blessing Putin's war on Ukraine as in effect a Crusade against great evil and threats to Russia. Stands in contrast to those within the Russian Orthodox Church who have publicly, bravely condemned this
Another version of #Russia's control map in #Ukraine
#Russia's wild accusations now include the #US developing "weaponized plague bacteria" weapons in #Ukraine.

Worth reiterating: while the attack is in Ukraine, the Putin government conceives of this as a war with America/NATO, and Kyiv as a mere puppet.
#Putin's war in #Ukraine has been billed as: (1) against Nazism, while relying on fascist-core units like Wagner and involving the mass-displacement of Jews; and (2) for Orthodox unity, now involving demolishing Orthodox churches.
#Putin's state continues arresting elderly people who faced an actual Nazi threat because they object to his regime using this memory for a war of aggression in #Ukraine.
#Britain remains in close contact with #Ukraine
Many #Russian in this protest against the war on #Ukraine are women and girls, not that it stops the state manhandling them.
#Putin has called up Orthodoxy and the Christian tradition of armed extirpation of evil for the conquest of #Ukraine, but the rival tradition of beating swords into plowshares and spears into pruninghooks retains its force in #Russia.
Putin managing to turn Odessa sharply towards Kiev
Perhaps #Ukraine will get the jets after all
In its newsletter, #ISIS condemns Muslims who have taken sides in #Russia's war on #Ukraine, says this is a fight between infidels and the proper Islamic response is to hope for more and worse "Crusader-Crusader wars". kyleorton.substack.com/p/islamic-stat…
Air raid sirens across #Ukraine as a large number of #Russian jets enter the country from #Belarus
Further sinister developments within #Russia as the secret police are posted to schools - this was just about the time earlier this week when a nation-wide "lesson" was informed Russian children about the "background" to the anti-Nazi/NATO war in Ukraine
Protests in about 50 cities across #Russia against #Putin's war on #Ukraine today led to thousands of arrests
TikTok pulling out of Russia - @AFP
The #US/allies making contingency plans to support a #Ukrainian government-in-exile if or when #Russia conquers Kiev. It is touchy, especially after such fierce resistance. A key need is for #Zelensky to survive to rally and direct the insurgency. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Senior #Russian officers lost at the front this week
Despite the difficulties, #Russia remains in position to attempt another assault on #Ukraine's capital in the coming days
#Poland remains skittish about providing MIG-29s to #Ukraine, and the #US has reservations about replacing the Polish planes with F-16s because the F-16s are currently earmarked for #Taiwan, which in the circumstances seriously needs them.
In a war the #Russian leadership never ceases to say is against #NATO's Nazi puppets in #Ukraine, the #US is worried about giving Kyiv real-time intelligence lest it give Moscow an "excuse" to believe this.
The Berlin Airlift-scale transfer to #Ukraine has included, in under a week:
- 17,000 anti-tank weapons
- "cybermissions teams"
- Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, which are still flying

Lobbyists in D.C. are also working for free for Kyiv.
nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/…
#Japan considering banning #Russia's oil from being imported
#Palestinians in Bethlehem demonstrating in favour of #Putin's invasion of #Ukraine
#US sensibly preparing sanctions aimed at weakening the #Russian military, not convincing #Putin to back down or trying to induce his overthrow.
#Putin's government has taken WNBA star Brittney Griner hostage. Undoubtedly, along with the nuclear rhetoric, this kind of thing will increase, to deter further #US involvement and perhaps as bargaining chips for some future "peace" conference.
The #Pope has dispatched two cardinals, the papal almsgiver Konrad Krajewski and the head of the office that deals with migration, charity, justice and peace Michael Czerny, to #Ukraine, to lobby for humanitarian corridors and a return to "negotiations" msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
Therein is the difficulty in opposing these bans on #Russia in cultural events: it is quite possible for the state, or simply loyal individuals, to use these things as a platform for propaganda in favour of the war on #Ukraine
#Zelensky, noting that the #Russians are comfortable announcing in advance that they plan to bomb #Ukraine's defence industries today, pushes for a level of assistance (as is his job) that would make this unthinkable.
Interesting
Albeit with low confidence, #US officials put the number of #Russia's soldiers killed in action nearer to the estimates given by #Ukraine than those given by Moscow.
Indications the technical/signals side of #Russia's intelligence capabilities is as degraded as the rest of the military system
The OSINT guys picked up the chartered flights from #Russia to #Israel, and it seems they were exactly what was suspected: Jewish oligarchs fleeing to avoid the sanctions timesofisrael.com/oligarchs-coul…
#France continues diplomatic efforts with #Russia, this time to open humanitarian corridors in #Ukraine (which the Russians have, as they did in #Syria, continued shelling over the last few days). Why the French continue doing this is beyond comprehension.
The Orthodox dimension to the Russian army - integrated as "spiritual security" - is something that has not got as much attention as it deserved over the last few years.
#Putin's war on #Ukraine is supposedly to remove Nazis, but so far the group most likely to be removed from the country by the war is Jews.
Further dissent in the Russian Orthodox Church: John Burdin, the rector of the Church of the Resurrection of Christ in the village of Karabanovo, has been arrested for anti-war sermons and is being charged with trying to discredit the Russian Armed Forces. newsreadonline.com/russian-priest…
"Success seems unlikely" is one way to put it
#Ukraine launched a counter-offensive overnight
#Russia's agitprop not improving
After two days in which #Russia has violently interrupted the ceasefire and humanitarian corridor operations in #Ukraine, Moscow now spells out that these things are not serious.
Sketchy reports #Russia is transferring troops it has trained and equipped for Asad's "urban combat" in #Syria to #Ukraine to participate in the assault on Kiev. Allegedly offering $200-$300 for six-month rotations, with some already in Russia. wsj.com/articles/russi…
Not sure this is really a matter of transferring "expertise": the job of these troops in Syria has been to move in and occupy the ruins after Russia razes rebellious cities. Suspect their task will be similar in Ukraine.
There has not been a single sign of a break between #China and #Russia, despite hopes, from officials and analysts, that the CCP-Putin axis can be divided.
No surprises here: the #ANC was one of the most slavishly devoted terrorist instruments in the #Soviet arsenal; no break in the habit following the Moscow line now. Image
Not sure #Russia is even trying any more Image
While #Russia is continuing to target #Ukraine's communications infrastructure, the fact it is still operational nearly two weeks into the war is a terrible failure.
New sanctions from #South_Korea on #Russia's central bank, sovereign wealth fund, and Rossiya Bank
#Russia agreed "in principle" to a humanitarian corridor for civilians to leave besieged Mariupol, but when "some [Red Cross] staff had tried to get out of Mariupol along an agreed route on Sunday, ... [they] soon realised 'the road indicated to them was actually mined'." Image
Funeral held in Donetsk for one of #Russia's "separatist" agents, Volodymyr Zhoga, the gangster who commanded the neo-Nazi "Sparta" battalion. Zhonga was killed on 5 March.
#Ukraine's ambassador to #Israel imploring Jerusalem to at least send protective equipment, since the Israelis are touchy about being seen to send anything that kill #Russians.
#Hungary to station more #NATO troops on its territory, apparently not viewing with equanimity sharing a border with a state ruled over by Putin in the way that some of the messaging from Orban and his allies would suggest.
#Turkey offering to play mediator between #Russia and #Ukraine
#Russian ship in the Black Sea shelled last night
Crazy collapse of #Russia's currency
Fourth #Russian jet confirmed downed over #Ukraine
A positive for the West to engage in this kind of signalling
#Russia once again presents negotiation terms that amount to asking #Ukraine to surrender its sovereignty and de jure parts of its territory, or have these things extracted by continued violence
#pt
A flow of 20,000 people to #Ukraine from 52 countries is ... going to create some "interesting" second-order consequences. Rightly not a concern of the Ukrainian government at this moment, of course.
#Japan's position on #Russia hardens still further
#Germany showing signs of going wobbly, after an unexpectedly strong showing
Pro-#Ukraine protest in Trafalgar Square in #London tonight. ImageImage
Unfortunate from #Georgia
#Germany draws the line at oil sanctions on #Russia
Interview with #Ukraine's President Zelensky with @ABC, says that #Putin is in an information bubble, making "negotiations" with the Russian invaders very difficult
Another #Ukrainian Orthodox Church demolished in #Putin's war, framed (and believed by the man himself, IMO) as an Orthodox jihad to reunify the lands of the old Rus
#Russia targeting #Ukraine's energy supplies
#Russia attacking #Ukraine's tank supplies, retaliation/pre-emption in some ways to counter the Russians' most obvious weakness, its logistical mess with its military vehicles
A #British volunteer with #Ukraine's Army
Not many would have predicted #Zelensky was the ideal man for such a moment, but 2022 is a very strange year. #Ukraine's President staying to endure the risks with everyone else in a fight for his country's survival has been key to keeping things together
A senior #Russian officer, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, has been killed near Kharkiv. Gerasimov had participated in the atrocitious campaigns in #Chechnya and #Syria - via @nexta_tv Image
#pt Ukraine was able to confirm the death of Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov because the Russian communications are a shambles.
#Australia's Prime Minister rejects the idea #Putin is crazy, says he explains at great length what he wants and what he believes whenever given an opportunity.
One of the stories of this war is the sigh of relief from #NATO: even if #Russia ultimately prevails militarily in #Ukraine, it is quite clear the "modernisation" has not brought the Russian Army up to a point that it could compete with NATO in any way
Psychoanalysis one can support: "'Anger and hate in this situation is a normal reaction and important to validate.' But it is important to channel it into something useful ... such as making incendiary bombs out of empty bottles."
New sanctions from #Japan against #Russia, this time on oil-refining equipment
This is potentially one of the senior #Russian officers who was announced killed in #Ukraine earlier, but their names kept out of the press. Or it might be a new one. Serious blow either way.
#Ukraine is requesting more drones from #Turkey. No clear response yet.
The levels of surreal increase in #Russia
Thread on the pay-off for #Ukraine of targeting #Russia's (now-notoriously shaky logistics) - and the trade-off in doing that, specifically that it leaves alive the people operating the war machine to be dealt with later
No uncomplicatedly good news from #Russia
Among the most important reasons to ensure #Russia pays the highest price possible if it is going to succeed in conquering #Ukraine: batter the army - and by extension shake the political system so badly - the Kremlin cannot plot adventures further afield
Pentagon confirms that #Russia is trying to bring fighters from Asad's #Syria into #Ukraine
Nearly two weeks in and #Ukraine's air force remains functional, something #Russia should have (and planned to) take care of in the first hours or at most days of the war. Along with not suppressing communications, the most disastrous failure.
Important not to lose sight of what #Putin's government still has available to it, and what it is prepared to do in regards to a matter that now impinges on its own survival, to prevail in #Ukraine
Rally in Sydney, #Australia, chanting, "God bless #Putin" and attacking "fascist #America"
Pentagon seems as confused as everyone else about what's happened to the #Russian air force, and why it has not been integrated with the ground operations in #Ukraine
One of the simplest ways people outside have been getting money to #Ukrainians as work grinds to a halt and sieges are imposed in places: making AirBNB bookings that they obviously cannot take
Side-by-side of the damage inflicted by #Russia in #Syria and #Ukraine
#Iran continues to make clear (as has #China) that it is allied to #Russia, no matter what. Should be kept in mind when strategic plans are made by analysts and officials to find daylight between these forces.
As in Syria, #Russia is bombing hospitals in #Ukraine
Awful thread on the situation in Mariupol, which is besieged by the Russian army and has been devastated
#Russia's state media doing roughly what one would expect.
Devastation in Sumy, #Ukraine, after #Russian attacks overnight
Awful
More on the damage being done during #Russia's invasion
Survey data - limited in sample size and geography (from Moscow) - shows significant shifts in #Russian public opinion away from the #Putin regime's narrative of the war on #Ukraine. It is important to know what Russians as a whole make of this.
Man arrested for driving his truck through the gates of #Russia's Embassy in #Ireland is unrepentant
Agitprop outside the #Russian Embassy in #Poland
Very sad 😔
Sign of desperation (or stupidity) for #Russia to be bringing #Yanukovych into this
#China has not even pretended throughout all of this that it had any policy except full support for #Russia
The scale of the refugee crisis from #Ukraine, especially in such a short period, is extraordinary
Another important data point in the intra-Orthodox conflict that is such a fundamental part of this war.
#Britain has been one of the leading supporters of #Ukraine's government during this crisis.
Protests against the #Russian occupation of Kherson. Brave of #Ukrainians. While Russia's army has generally avoided firing on crowds so far, there have been instances, and they have to know there will come a time when the Russians crack down hard on this
Senior politician from #Latvia joining with #Ukraine's government to fight the #Russian invasion
#China's government has backed #Russia to the hilt, and now its media are embedded with the Russian forces that are otherwise very averse to foreign journalists
As of tomorrow, the #Russian state propaganda outlet "Sputnik" will be taking over the broadcasting frequency from "Echo of Moscow" (Ekho Moskvy), the mass-audience liberal radio station that was closed down by the Kremlin a few days ago as part of the liquidation of ind't media.
First foreign fighter battalion for #Ukraine
Well, there it is
Yet again: "Russian forces shelled an evacuation route for civilians trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol in violation of a ceasefire agreement, Oleg Nikolenko, a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman, said on Twitter." thetimes.co.uk/article/zelens…
#China backing #Russia even in the minutiae of its demented war propaganda Image
#Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov met with Vatican State Secretary Pietro Parolin. Parolin has said the war was "unleashed by Russia", but the Roman Church remains committed to facilitating negotiations that Moscow has effectively rejected. reuters.com/world/europe/r…
#Britain is banning imports of #Russian oil - @politico
The #EU has agreed to oil sanctions on #Russia
New York Times withdrawing its journalists from Moscow
Former government official from #Georgia has joined #Ukraine's army to resist the #Russian invasion
#Ukraine's President Zelensky addressing #Britain's Parliament ImageImageImage
#pt Zelensky is extremely good at this: channelled Churchill in his speech to the British House of Commons
Another major company out of Russia
The subplot about #Ukraine getting fighter jets from #Poland thickens
#pt Background on the Polish jet transfer to Ukraine imbroglio
#pt Pentagon response to the Polish transfer of planes to Ukraine is to worry about the logistics ...
Pentagon having a very weird evening
#UAE ruler MBZ and #Saudi ruler MBS refused to take calls from #Biden during the #Ukraine crisis, but "both ... took phone calls from Russian President Vladimir Putin last week ... They both later spoke with Ukraine's President [Volodymyr Zelensky]" wsj.com/articles/saudi…
Should be noted: "#Biden did speak with ... [#Saudi] King Salman, on Feb. 9", and the #UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the call with MBZ would be "rescheduled".

Since Biden doesn't speak to MBS anyway, rather less to this than the headline suggests.
Further protests in #Russia against the assault on #Ukraine
UN assessment is that #Russia's attack has killed 474 #Ukrainian civilians and wounded 861 ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/…
Despite the terrible leadership of the last three administrations, Americans in their overwhelming majority are prepared for sacrifice when the chips are down
A #Ukrainian fighter, who identifies himself as a nationalist, also explains why he is a Zionist and his beliefs about the special contribution of Jews to the country
#Ukraine's mufti calls on Muslims to support his country against the #Russian invader
Novoya Gazeta pushing the boundaries as far as anyone dares under this new regime of harsh censorship and repression in Russia
A solid initiative
Irpin suffering grievously from Russian activities that are well outside any concept of the laws and customs of war
It's very unclear what this man from #China is actually doing while embedded with #Russia's Army in #Ukraine
#Russia is nearing a default, but we are in somewhat unchartered territory: a lot of the things states are trying to avoid by not defaulting have already happened to Russia
A thread reiterating that Putin and the circle around him believe a huge percentage of the things they say in public that get labelled "propaganda"
#Britain leading a push to get reconstruction assistance to #Ukraine
This doesn't seem like a positive thing at all
As a precedent, it's not a bad one: the West prevailed in #Turkey and even more notably in #Greece in the late 1940s, against rather long odds as the Soviets closed in around it, conquering eastern and central Europe using American lend-lease aid
Important: all the Russian offers of diplomacy are just efforts to get what they want without having to fight for it. The Kremlin has not been shy about this, presenting in "negotiations" only demands for surrender - and threats if they are refused
#Japan sending resources to #Ukraine
The Baltic states have always understood this Kremlin
#China continues supporting #Russia on every available axis.
"Britain ... impounded a plane connected to a Russian billionaire under new aviation sanctions which give authorities the power to detain any Russian aircraft and to ban exports of aviation or space-related goods to Russia." reuters.com/world/uk/brita…
I believe that was the announced policy, so good the Kremlin understood, I guess
#Ukraine's President continues to urge #Russian soldiers to throw down their weapons; if they do, they will be protected by the Kiev government.
#pt There are efforts underway to break through the #Russian information firewall to tell troops invading #Ukraine the truth about the war and how they can get themselves out of it, e.g.
#Lithuania's foreign minister warns against #Israel's tendency to place its trust in #Putin.
Highly volatile situation in the Russian-occupied town of Kherson
Not a good sign of where #Russia is headed domestically
#British fighter with #Ukraine
As expected, #Russia has begun mass repression in occupied Kherson.
Germany Is Stalling EU Efforts to Broaden Russia's SWIFT Ban bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Protests against the #Russians in Enerhodar in southeastern #Ukraine
The only appropriate posture
Another senior #Russian officer killed in #Ukraine
A bad signal for Russia's military
#Russia has attacked a children's hospital in besieged Mariupol in southeast #Ukraine
A unit of troops from #Belarus is fighting for #Ukraine
Latest statement from President Zelensky, says #Ukraine will beat #Russia with its own captured weapons
Civilian resistance in #Ukraine continues
#Russia engaged in the mass use of cluster munitions in civilian areas in #Ukraine
Two of our key aims in helping #Ukraine fight for as long as they are prepared to, aside from decency and honour, are: (1) hold #Russia down to prevent further aggression; and (2) deter #China from any thoughts it has about #Taiwan.

So this is excellent:
#Russia pressing on Kharkiv
#Ukrainians view #Britain most favourably of all the countries and entities that have come to help them resist the #Russian invasion, and the leader looked on most favourably is @BorisJohnson, second only to their own President, @ZelenskyyUa.
Above it all, of course, is the problem: this war was plotted in secret from most senior Russian officials, civilian and military, by Putin and maybe a half-dozen others; the idea conscripts were sent and "the top" didn't know about it defies belief
Probably should add - since at this stage who can say for sure what is real - that *if* it is true the Russian military sent conscripts into Ukraine and Putin did not know, that is arguably a worse problem; one of state functionality, not simply state deception of the population.
Honestly, at this stage the ligaments of the Empire are looking pretty good right about now
#Ukraine pushing back it seems
#US rejecting the crazy conspiracy theories of #Russia and its #Chinese ally.
Soldiers in #Britain's Army have gone to fight for #Ukraine, despite being discouraged from abandoning their posts and official encouragement to return to their jobs.
What an iconic photograph (in the worst way)
Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill gave a speech earlier today: he avoided restating that #Russia's attack on #Ukraine was to prevent the West staging gay pride parades in Donbas, but reiterated that it was defensive against external conspirators who were the enemies of humanity.
#pt As part of his Lent statement at the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow, Patriarch Kirill said the war in #Ukraine involved "two fraternal peoples ... in fact, one [people], the #Russian people", who had been "divided" by foreigners "frightened by [Russia's] power".
#pt Patriarch Kirill called for "an end to all military confrontation between #Russia and #Ukraine", by which he meant that outsiders should cease arming Kyiv because this was inciting hatred against Russia to weaken it and destroy the unity of the Holy Rus.
#pt "How disgusting and vile to use the fraternal [Ukrainian] people for the implementation of these geopolitical goals! How terrible it is to set this people against their brothers! How terrible it is to arm them ... [against] fellow brothers in faith!"
#pt Patriarch Kirill condemned the Ukrainian Orthodox Church for splitting from the Russian, praying "the Lord would save them from the wiles of the evil one" and make them see that "any war between Orthodox brothers who belong to one Church is the work of the devil, not God."
Thread 👇🏼 Western officials warning #Russia is planning a false flag with WMD to blame on #Ukraine, something Kiev has been warning the Russians are plotting since the early days of the invasion.
#Russia creating an online network of spies to report people who make comments the regime doesn't like
Interesting that Putin made a note of Catherine II not being Russian by birth.
#Russian propaganda is best understood as projection
With so many #Russians bravely standing against this attempt to extinguish #Ukraine, this is especially grim
Seems Western intelligence is converging on estimates of #Russian casualties more in line with #Ukraine's claims than Moscow's
The US is turning this into a fiasco over the Polish jets
A terrible flight of humanity from #Russia, made all the worse by it being all the people she would need to recover who arenhwing driven out
#Poland bearing the brunt of the refugee wave from #Ukraine after #Russia's assault
#Ukraine's President Zelensky asking, hours after #Russia obliterated a children's hospital in Mariupol (ostensibly during a ceasefire), that either the West close the skies over his country or allow his government the means to do it themselves.
All this in the name of "de-Nazification", lest it be forgotten
#pt "In 1927, under Stalin, the [Golden Rose] synagogue was converted into a warehouse and a workers' club. The Star of David above its portico was replaced by a hammer and sickle. The building wasn't handed back to the Jewish community until 1996."
Roman Abramovich was added to the British sanctions list and has gone to Israel
Congress has passed an aid bill for Ukraine
The PLO refuses to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine
#Russia's already-weak position in #Syria has been further degraded by the transfer of resources to #Ukraine
#Ukraine continuing its counter-intelligence efforts, combing #Russia's agents out of the system
As expected: the persecution of the Tatar minority in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine has begun
The #Philippines have come back to the #US in case of action becoming necessary in #Ukraine
Kadyrovtsy can't find the Ukrainian neo-Nazis for some reason ...
#British politician warns that #NATO has what it surely wouldn't call a "red line" at the use of WMD by #Russia in #Ukraine
The impact of the #US-led sanctions is even affecting #China's ability to keep #Russia afloat
Again, diplomacy with #Russia ... isn't really a thing
No clear numbers, but "at least dozens" of #Israeli veterans are fighting for #Ukraine. Odd for Jews to be so enthusiastic in supporting what the Kremlin assures us is a Nazi junta, but these are strange times.
More serious losses for #Russia
Wonder how many #Russians will buy this idea the invasion was a pre-emptive defensive operation against #Ukraine
Horrible
Two weeks in and #Russia is still having to use various workarounds like flying at night to cope with the fact it did not suppress #Ukraine's air defences in the first hours of this war. #Britain trying to help ensure these problems continue.
#Russia moving troops recruited from among Ukrainians in Donbas (occupied since 2014) to try to control other parts of #Ukraine. This recruitment is one way Moscow tried to square the circle of not having enough of its own troops to fully occupy the state.
As well as the #UAE, some of the oligarchs have fled to #Israel, too. Not great for #US allies to be acting as the rear base for the people who helped destroy #Russia, whose reckoning has finally arrived.
Thread on #Putin's shift against "Westernisation", attempting a civilisational reorientation that reverses #Russia's course that goes back at least 300 years
On we go with the obscene garbage from Putin's government Image
Disgusting servant of a hideous system
Worth remembering stuff like this. For years, people have argued the "tensions" in #Russia's relationships with #Iran (and #China) could translate into some meaningful policy, but both remain all-in on the alliance, even in the insane rhetoric.
#pt Iran and China could have voted with Russia at the UN, and refused to go along with sanctions, but have restrained their media and official statements to both-sidesism and calls for negotiations. Instead, they have supported Moscow's narrative in all its details.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky to speak before #Israel's Parliament
#US intelligence concedes it underestimated the will and ability of #Ukraine to resist the #Russian conquest
Will they, though
Russian Orthodox priest John Burdin has been fined 35,000 rubles after delivering an anti-war sermon on 6 March at the Church of the Resurrection in Kostroma, and being reported to the state by one of his parishioners. Image
After a better-than-expected start, Biden veering into the "every support, short of help" phase with Ukraine
Thread on the evolution of the information system that is #China's media, makes clear that its coverage in favour of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is incentivised and supported from the top.
The convoy north of Kyiv has been un-jammed
Return to form for #Germany: is blocking banking sanctions on #Russia and one of #Putin's most undisguised agents of influence Gerhard Shröder is in Moscow ostensibly to negotiate, though for whom and for what is unclear
An interesting map of where #Russia is with its "special military operation" in #Ukraine
Macron views himself as keeping open a line of communication to Putin, being the way out if the Russian ruler decides to change course in Ukraine. Of course, there will be no change, so apart from domestic grandstanding, Macron gets only humiliation. politico.eu/article/macron…
#pt A former French diplomat involved in Minsk: "Vladimir Putin would go back over Russian history, with his narrative of the great Russian Empire and later Stalin’s Communism. It's terrible … He repeats more than he tries to convince … your point of view does not matter"
All of this except the last bit rings true: the #Russians have fought a war that shows little sign of "modernisation" in the military, but there are a lot of them - and Stalin was right that quantity has a quality all of its own
Rubio suggests #Russia has abandoned the effort to replace #Ukraine's government by force, which seems highly unlikely: even if #Putin was to agree to actual "negotiations" to "end" the war, difficult to see how he can do that before conquering Kyiv
The Biden administration scuttled the deal to send Polish fighter jets to Ukraine because it was concerned about "escalation" - after Russia has launched a war to extinguish a neighbouring state
#China's unwavering support for #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine continues
#Britain is quite right about the stakes and what is necessary here: #Putin's gambit over #Ukraine has to fail and visibly so (which is what makes Macron continuing to offer an off-ramp to Putin all the worse)
#Russia is reportedly already moving troops from #Syria into #Ukraine; perhaps soon there will also be a legion from the #Central_African_Republic
#Britain expects #Russia to reset in #Ukraine after the failure of its initial plans; the Russians are not expected to stop trying to take the Ukrainian capital
Pentagon says the threats of Russian WMD use are very real, again something Ukraine has been warning about since the earliest days of the war
#Russia trying at last to gain air superiority in #Ukraine
Extraordinary woman
What makes the reappearance of barrier troops more plausible is the low morale and use of conscripts by #Russia. The harsh turn by #Putin towards #Soviet-style rule in the last week is going to necessitate many such second-order horrors.
Kharkiv being assaulted by #Russian forces
#Russia tried another offensive against #Ukraine's capital this week, but it fizzled very quickly
If #Russia's accusations about #US bioweapons labs in #Ukraine were put in the full context of Moscow's accusation that this program might be a collaborative effort of the Americans and local bird species, it might give readers a better sense
The only way forward: no concessions to #Russia
Lukashenko might have personal reasons to keep the elite onside, so he can remain the figurehead, but #Belarus' specific ruler no longer makes much difference: #Russia has annexed the state and no matter the nominal president, that cannot be reversed
#China moving to keep #Russia's war machine operative as Western companies withdraw from Russia
Borrowing from Stalin's SMERSH "barrier troops" (to shoot Soviet soldiers who retreat), Putin is using the Chechen Kadyrovtsy for this purpose, especially around Kiev: on the Kiev Sea, and in Irpin, Hostomel, and Bucha. pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
The end of ambiguity on this matter >> #Putin tells the Security Council "volunteers" from abroad will be deployed to #Ukraine. Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu says there are 16,000 applicants "from the Middle East" (i.e. #Syria). fourth-sphere-302420.appspot.com/news/2022/03/1…
The #PKK remains loyal to its old patron in Moscow. ("The Empire" in this context is #America.)
The Kremlin's suffocation of space for oppositon continues
#Iran's Fars News attacks #Ukraine's President Zelensky in the grossest antisemitic terms as a duplicitous Jew - ahem "Zionist" - who used "moral and financial corruption" to get to power, supports drugs and prostitution, and is in league with George Soros jpost.com/middle-east/ir…
The #Iran article attacking Zelensky also links him vaguely to Jeffrey Epstein, to the American government, constructs a vision of a Jew-oligarch nexus that rules #Ukraine, and partly draws on articles in #Turkey's pro-government media.
Open letter: Faculty of Biology graduates Moscow State University condemn Russia for its "pure fiction" claims Ukraine has "plague, anthrax, tularemia, cholera" in its labs. There is "not a single" dangerous strain, only what is "common" for microbiological/epidemiological labs. ImageImage
The signatories also condemn the idea of a special anti-Slavic bioweapon as something any high schooler knows is "nonsense", adding that such "false ... and hate-provoking statements" are "reminiscent of the theories of the German National Socialists"
#Turkey closing down diplomatic operations in #Ukraine's capital
Predictable, though no less sad or unhinged for that. A kind of darkness not seen in many decades settling over Russia:
In #Syria, when messages like this appeared, it meant #Russia's client regime was planning an attack with chemical WMD.

Also note: the Russian state continues to say #Ukraine is under the control of the #US; this is not a belief the US can change by denying jets to Kyiv. Image
Denied a false flag trigger to start its own invasion of #Ukraine, the #Putin government tries to provide one for #Belarus; it seems to have gone about as well.

(Still, the significance is minimal: in all serious senses, Belarus is already engaged.)
Really depressing showing from #Israel during this crisis. Mini thread 👇🏻
#Iran remains an unshakeable ally of #Russia's
A 2022 crossover
#Russia's ambassador Vasily Nebenzya at the United Nations Security Council hinting fairly strongly that his country plans to use WMD in #Ukraine and blame it on Kiev (and the #US). Notable that #China backs the Russians in this, albeit not in every detail
#Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan with a rather unique way of declaring neutrality between #Russia and #Ukraine
Extremely significant if true: #Putin has placed Sergey Beseda, the head of the foreign division of his main intelligence service, the #FSB, and Beseda's deputy, under house arrest.
Incredible footage
For all the criticisms that can be made of #Turkey hedging diplomatically with #Russia over the Straits and airspace, this is by far her most significant contribution in this war, and it is firmly on the #Ukraine side of the scale.
What a terrible event
An interesting trend because even Putin's people know the (well-earned) reputation of the Kadyrovtsy. People arrested at protests are threatened with being raped in prison by "Chechens", for example.
On it goes ...
The scale and public nature of the opposition within #Russia to #Putin's attack on #Ukraine has been quite extraordinary
On one of the Kremlin's main propaganda programs, with Vladimir Solovyov, the guests went distinctly off-script: said #Ukraine had forged a nation out of all its ethno-linguistic groups and the war was wrong since even "Russian" cities were resisting rosbalt.ru/like/2022/03/1…
More #Russians publicly condemning #Putin's war
Some of the quotes from guests on Solovyov's show - again, one of the Kremlin's premier propaganda platforms - are quite something 👇🏼
#Russia says it will be treating #US/allied weapons shipments to #Ukraine as legitimate targets. The only possible course is to ignore this raving, and respond kinetically as appropriate if the Russians get in our way.
#Russia preparing to "formally" dismember #Ukraine
"Last week's assault by Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was far more dangerous than initial assessments suggested… Russian forces repeatedly fired heavy weapons in the direction of the plant's massive reactor buildings, which housed dangerous nuclear fuel"
"Russian troops haphazardly firing rocket-propelled grenades into the main administrative building at the plant and turning away Ukrainian firefighters even as a fire raged out of control in a nearby training building." npr.org/2022/03/11/108…
#pt: Apart from Chernobyl, there was the Sverdlovsk anthrax leak in 1979 and the 2019 nuclear sub disaster (militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-543…). It's an open question how many mishaps the Soviets/Russia have had handling WMD, and how many other near-misses.
#pt: The "potential leaks from American bioweapons in Ukraine" stuff is, as with so much Soviet/Russian propaganda, projection. It's not just bad intentions; the incapacity alone makes Russia's possession of WMD so dangerous.
Zelensky speaking last night - in front of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration (i.e. he is still in his capital) - says in part: #Ukraine welcomes the #EU move to integration. Makes a clever appeal to Western public opinion, which he knows is with his country, to push this.
#pt In the "stories" part of his Instagram feed, President Zelensky gives another angle of last night's speech, showing where it was filmed, since an important part of these speeches is proving he remains in his capital, with his people. Image
#Ukraine's President reports a significant surrender of #Russian troops today
The horrors in Mariupol continue
"[A]n overwhelming majority of Americans [regardless of partisan affiliation] now say #Ukraine is a friendly country. ... Nearly 70 percent ... now consider #Russia an enemy, more than for any other country in the survey, including North Korea and Iran." nyti.ms/3I6QF2n Image
Sooooo in a surprise turn of events, the Franco-German outreach to Putin went nowhere
So the #Russian stock market just isn't reopening, is it. An eternal Schrodinger's cat
Never a good sign
In Moscow, two people were arrested on Pushkinskaya Square because they were holding a poster with a quote from the Gospel of Matthew ("Blessed are the merciful: for they shall obtain mercy" [5:7]) and a hashtag, "No To War". Image
Would be quite symbolic in a war that Putin is waging in significant part for (Orthodox) Christian motives for a peace conference to be held in Jerusalem.

[There, of course, will not be a peace conference and VVP has no intention of negotiating]
Everything helps
Thread on the dysfunction of #Russia's military, which has not fought a conventional war since 1945, with the qualified exception of the brief mauling of Georgia in 2008 (which showed a lot of the problems we're seeing now in #Ukraine in miniature).
#pt: As @kamilkazani notes, in the Cold War, Moscow deployed military "advisers" to control its "national liberation" instruments. In #Afghanistan (and #Chechnya) it fought guerrillas, and suffered badly. #Ukraine is the first test in 80 years of the conventional military system.
#pt: Two further points @kamilkazani highlights: (1) the literal banditry that afflicts the #Russian Army, even at quite senior/sensitive levels; and (2) the coup-proofing mechanisms that mean creative and capable officers are purged from the ranks 👇🏼
Shaykh Saeed Ismailov, Mufti of the Religious Administration of Muslims of Ukraine, calls on #Syrians not to come to #Ukraine in service of the invading #Russians.
For all the qualms about how groups like Azov might capitalise on this flow of Western volunteers to #Ukraine, it is categorially different joining a state military to joining a non-state entity like the #PKK in Syria (let alone IS or Al-Qaeda).
#Ukraine's officials have gone to some lengths to publicly signal against, or outright refute, the story that #Israel had pushed Kiev to accept #Russia's "peace" terms. Which doesn't mean the original reporting was not true, and is interesting either way.
#pt: On the other hand, #Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in public only hours ago that #Israel's present position on the war, perceived in Kiev as much too close to #Russia, will damage Ukrainian-Israeli relations.
#Wagner under the control of #GRU? What will they think of next.
#Russia sending more #Chechens to the front in #Ukraine
What a hideous situation
The war has not developed entirely to #Russia's advantage
Another break in the simulation: "In a heartfelt plea to Boris Johnson posted on Telegram, [Ramzan] Kadyrov asked for [British] sanctions ... to be removed so that he could one day realise his childhood dream [of visiting Britain]." telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
Hmm
#China having some doubts about signing up with #Russia, less because of the aggression and more because of the weakness. CCP analysis reflected here sees the #West becoming more powerful and influential after Putin's war on Ukraine
#Russia has proven simply incapable of dealing with #Ukraine's Turkish-made drones - more of which are on the way. This is part of one of Moscow's premier failings: not suppressing the air defences/capacities in the first 48 hours.
In Nizhny, a woman holds up a blank piece of paper - a reference to a Soviet dissident parable about how clear things are that words aren't needed. The #Russian police clerk felt the same way and arrested her as an anti-war protester.
#Russia continues attacking even in the far west of #Ukraine, suggesting no stand down from the original aim to conquer the whole country
#Ukraine's Grand Mufti has joined the Army to fight the #Russian invasion
A group of #American military veterans - highly idealistic and motivated - are overseeing a "Resistance Academy" for #Ukraine's Army.
The #Russian strikes this morning in Lviv, near #Ukraine's border with #Poland, were not tokenism: they gave killed a lot of people
#pt: Explains a lot: the #Russian attack in Lviv this morning was aimed at where a #US training base for #Ukraine had been. The mission was withdrawn on the assumption Kiev would fall quickly; should be rethought now we can see that was false.
#Ukraine's President with another of his now-famous statements, urges his people on amid what seems like a #Russian escalation.
#pt: The man of the moment, who managed to rally not only his own country but the West into a response to #Russia that surprised even themselves.
Had #Ukraine collapsed swiftly, and the West not responded to ensure her resistance can continue, there would already be a wider war by now.
What a scene
Pictures from the former #American training facility demolished by the #Russians in western #Ukraine this morning
#Russia continues kidnapping local officials.
Few things could help #Ukraine's morale like the arrival of #Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov
No surprises: #China to help keep #Russia's war machine running in the face of Western sanctions
"Zagradotryady" refers to Stalin's barrier troops (or "blocking/barrage/defence detachments"), units placed behind Soviet troops to shoot anyone who retreats. There are multiple reports #Russia is using the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy for this purpose in #Ukraine.
One #American journalist killed by the #Russians in #Ukraine, and another injured in Irpin, north-west of Kiev.
#Ukrainians protesting in Berdyansk, which was occupied by #Russian troops two weeks ago.
#Ukrainians protesting in Kherson, the first major town occipued by the #Russians
The slain #American journalist in #Ukraine has been named: Brent Renaud, of The New York Times
Disaster
#Russia continuing to draw from the #Syria playbook: murdering and kidnapping journalists; trying to block out the ability of the outside world to see what is happening in #Ukraine.
CORRECTION: He had a NYT press pass, but was not on active assignment for the NYT.
Another data point on #Israel becoming something of a refuge for #Russian oligarchs - a trend that is attracting some attention and being somewhat disrupted now.
A grim picture given by an #American volunteer with #Ukraine's Army of the situation around the capital
Latest #British intelligence public estimate on the situation in #Ukraine
Reports the #Russian military has attacked a school in south-east #Ukraine, in Mykolaiv
#Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill: "commemoration of the name of the Patriarch [i.e. him] in the temple" has "become impossible" in the #Ukrainian Orthodox Church because of "fear on behalf of the Jews". He adds: "This does not offend me, but it is dangerous for spiritual life". Image
Tulsi Gabbard being exactly the worst of what is said of her
#pt: While Tulsi Gabbard disseminates the #Russian propaganda about bioweapons labs in #Ukraine, people under serious threat within Russia have called out this Kremlin nonsense
The Pope does not explicitly name #Russia, but implicitly condemns Moscow for the "massacre" and "unacceptable armed aggression" against #Ukraine.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky on Instagram shows his meetings with some of those wounded in #Russia's attack on his country. ImageImage
Sometimes it's as simple as being outraged you can't get a Maccies
A shameful operation from Russia in the small things, as well as the large
#Ukraine and #Britain remain in close regular contact
The right man in the right place at the right moment
#Russia has been abundantly clear about its terms - #Ukraine can surrender or the violence will continue - and there is little reason to think this will be any different. Moscow's talk of ceasefires, indeed, often curtain-raise for military escalation.
A sad day
Important
#Ukraine's drones still operational nearly three weeks into #Russia's war
Yup
Confirmation that #Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, is in #Ukraine, near the capital it seems.
#Putin's war for Orthodox unity continues, demolishing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church's houses of worship and murdering her priests
Instagram now blocked in Russia
The scale of the terror in conquered/contested areas in #Ukraine explains why #Russia is beginning the widespread killing and kidnapping of journalists. Like #Syria, black out independents, then give Potemkin tours to friendies - e.g. #China's state media.
#pt: Extremely grim article about the situation in #Russian-occupied zones of #Ukraine, where the numbers of the "disappeared" increases day after day, at an extraordinary rate
#Britain assesses that #Russia has imposed a naval blockade on #Ukraine
#pt: Further reporting on Putin having revived the "barrier troops", last seen under Stalin
Report: Russia's #FSB officers engaged in a large-scale deception of their superiors about how many agents they had in #Ukraine, and stole the money assigned to these "ghost agents". This would explain a lot about why #Putin expected such an easy war.
On Telegram, Ramzan Kadyrov offered/threatened to knock on the door of Oleksii Arestovych, an adviser to #Ukraine's President Zelensky, to prove that the Chechen ruler is in Kiev, and Arestovych did not take kindly to this.
Unfortunate to see #India involved in this
The horrors unleased on #Ukraine
#Russia finding its collaborators in Melitopol, southeastern #Ukraine
Devastating
Showing how difficult "control" is to measure in #Ukraine: Kherson is occupied by #Russian troops, a brutal crackdown on opposition to this fact is underway, and yet day after day this kind of mass dissention recurs
#Ukraine's intelligence says #Russia has opened 14 recruitment centres in Asad's #Syria (Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Raqqa and Deir Ezzor), and is drawing primarily from the #Iran-constructed/controlled National Defence Forces (#NDF) and the Russian-created Fifth Corps. Image
According to #Ukraine's Health Minister Viktor Lyashko:

- #Russia has completely destroyed 7 hospitals and damaged another 104.

- Russian troops have killed 6 medical personnel and severely injured 12.
#British fighter for #Ukraine nearly asleep when a #Russian missile landed: "It was fucking lovely ... just liked being fucking cuddled. ... then literally as I ... put my eye mask on everything went … fuck,' he added, waving his hands in the air." buzzfeednews.com/article/christ…
Thread on why #Russia's military was over-estimated heading into the #Ukraine war, and what the long-term meaning of this is - other than the severely damaged reputation of Russian power.
Activists in #France broke into the villa of #Putin's daughter, Catherine Tikhonova, in Biarritz, changed the locks, and invited #Ukrainian refugees in to use the eight beds, three baths, and all the rest of it. unian.ua/russianworld/a…
The Roman Church becoming much more vocal against #Russia's aggression
#Chechnya engaged in a recruitment drive for #Russia's war on #Ukraine
Red Cross, 13 March: "A worst-case scenario awaits ... civilians trapped ... in #Mariupol unless the parties reach a concrete humanitarian agreement urgently ... [R]esidents are now facing extreme or total shortages of basic necessities" icrc.org/en/document/uk…
This pause/reorganise likely explains the uptick in diplomatic statements about "ceasefires" from the Kremlin over the last day or two - certainly more likely than those statements meaning what they say
"#Australia and the #Netherlands have launched new legal action against #Russia over the 2014 downing of flight MH17, challenging Vladimir Putin in the International Civil Aviation Organisation." afr.com/politics/feder…
A #Russian climate activist speaks out against the war on #Ukraine
Footage of the devastation in Mariupol
Madness continues on #Russian state television
#India working with #China to prop up #Russia's war machine as Western sanctions bite
#Israel trying to ensure its financial institutions cannot be abused by #Russia
The Putin government pushing #Russia's downward spiral
As #Russia shuts out the independent press by murdering and kidnapping journalists - just as in #Syria - this is the kind of figure they will bring in to fill the void
Thread on the #NATO no-fly/safe zone ideas floating around, and not doing #Russia's work for it by pre-emptively ruling things out in defence of #Ukraine.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
Mar 14
Catherine Shakdam, a French-British journalist who wrote numerous articles for the website of #Iran's Supreme Leader, is of Jewish ancestry (which they didn't know) and wrote an article for The @TimesofIsrael, led her being accused of being an #Israeli spy iranintl.com/en/202203136114
#pt: Catherine Shakdam, a Jewish French-British journalist who was a propagandist for #Iran, says she "realize[d] ... there was a ... great hypocrisy" in the regime, and in combination with its call "for genocide of an entire people", it turned her against the theocracy.
Catherine Shakdam, who converted to Khomeinist Islam, about five years ago reconnected with her Jewish roots, but continued working for #Iran's media and interacting with the regime's senior officials, until she "came out" in November 2021. timesofisrael.com/im-no-mossad-s…
Read 4 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Mar 13
Nobody - not one single person on this earth - knows with any accuracy what the state of #Russian public opinion is about #Putin's war on #Ukraine, so arguments and commentary that blame for this on the Russian people are analytical junk, as well as morally suspect.
There's no reason to deny there *is* support for Putin's war in Russia: some of it positive/ideological (pan-Slavists, Orthodox believers, regime loyalists), some of it "negative", from people who cannot support the killing of Russian soldiers and/or the nation being defeated.
Note, however, there are severe penalties in #Russia for the expression of dissent against this war, and *even so* there have been mass demonstrations across the whole country, with thousands of people arrested, and open elite dissatisfaction even on the main propaganda channel.
Read 8 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Mar 12
#Iran has carried out a rather substantial attack in Iraqi #Kurdistan while all eyes are on the Iranians' #Russian allies are attacking #Ukraine.
Footage from #Iran's attack on the #US Consulate in #Iraq's northern Kurdistan region
Re #Iran framing this attack on the #US in Iraqi Kurdistan as an attack on #Israel
Read 11 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Feb 21
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says Amnesty report accusing Israel of apartheid was deeply flawed, misrepresenting the situation of Arab Israelis, and pressing an ideological point rather than saying what needs fixing. timesofisrael.com/amnestys-israe…
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says she agrees with the criticism of Amnesty for the report accusing Israel of "apartheid" in being too monomaniacal in its target; "it stands out, it has been exaggerated."
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel: "I also have a problem with Amnesty International's approach on antisemitism. Amnesty is supposed to fight antisemitism. It does, but not enough, and sometimes I feel that it needs to be pressured into action."
Read 5 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jan 21
Russian provocations continue
#Russia's government not being very subtle about how this is going to go with #Ukraine: a provocation will be staged and the Russians will claim to be acting in self-defence when they invade, while screaming about 'Western false-flag operations'.
Integrating this thread from Feb. 11 here
Read 431 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jan 14
US intelligence believes #Russia is preparing to stage a false flag incident to justify its initiation of hostilities in #Ukraine. Been a lot of signs for months that Moscow was plotting provocation to ignite this.
#Russia's representative to international organisations in Vienna. At this stage, Moscow isn't even trying as it prepares its provocation to begin the offensive in #Ukraine.
I think we'd all worked out the Russian script that far, but all the same nice to know NATO has, too.
Read 158 tweets

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