Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jan 21 431 tweets 234 min read
#Russia's government not being very subtle about how this is going to go with #Ukraine: a provocation will be staged and the Russians will claim to be acting in self-defence when they invade, while screaming about 'Western false-flag operations'.
Integrating this thread from Feb. 11 here
Hardly news to anyone following but there it is in black and white: the best information our governments have is that #Russia is days away from tearing up the post-Cold War order and will ignite it with some kind of provocation. thetimes.co.uk/article/briton… Image
Be interesting to compare the read-outs of this ...
#Canada has "temporarily" closed its embassy in Kyiv and moved operations to Lviv in the far west of #Ukraine
#Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey says the RAF will "not be in a position to go in" to #Ukraine to get British citizens out once #Russia invades, so people should "leave now". The new advice is b/c the Russians are now in position to attack "at no notice". — @BBCNews
#US intelligence looking at Wednesday as the go day for #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Made a mess of these threads. Integrating them here
#Ukraine's President Zelensky said a few hours ago he is still going to Germany tomorrow for the Munich Security Conference. Whether this is supposed to promote calm or what is unclear; it's a hell of a time for him to leave his capital.
President #Biden just said in his White House address that the US believes the #Russians will invade #Ukraine in the next few days and "they will target Ukraine's capital, Kiev". Image
#Biden in his speech minutes ago said: "As of this moment, I’m convinced [#Putin has] made the decision [to invade #Ukraine]. I have reason to believe that."

This follows the leaked assessment yesterday that #Britain had come to this conclusion, too.
#Russia moved 70+% of its military to surround #Ukraine, while Vladimir Putin made impossible demands and publicly mused on Ukraine being a fake state that properly belongs to Russia. It did not stop the too-clever-by-half explanations of what was happening.
The time of the propaganda games has passed
The destabilisation phase ahead of #Russia's full-scale invasion of #Ukraine is well underway
Have a feeling if we ever get the papers it will turn out the #Kosovo (and more general Jugoslav) dimension to #Putin's thinking as he decided on this invasion of #Ukraine was much greater than the coverage would suggest.
No let up: #Russia claiming a shelling by #Ukraine near where the Donbas evacuees - "refugees" from genocide, in the telling of the Kremlin - are based
#Russia's man in Donetsk announces a mobilisation, suggesting war is very close at hand in eastern #Ukraine
Luhansk, the #Russian-occupied "republic" in eastern #Ukraine, has begun mobilising. #Russia's other puppet republic in the Donbas, Donetsk, mobilised a short while ago.
It's all just so ... pathetic. The (blatantly fake) car bombing yesterday afternoon, the pipe explosion last night, and now this? That's the "genocide" threat to the Donbas that Putin is going to say justifies his invasion of Ukraine?
#Russian forces killed a #Ukrainian soldier in the east this morning, it seems. Meanwhile, the Russians are claiming their territory has been attacked (see: m.tvzvezda.ru/news/202221910…)
It has to be granted that the #Biden administration has done everything it can to remove #Russia's pretexts for this attack on #Ukraine. If the Biden people's strategy was based on a belief the messaging would deter Putin, though, that's more troublesome.
The #EU institutionally has not performed well during the #Ukraine crisis and its leading member states, particularly Germany, did much worse individually. Now this. (The Baltic states did much better, and Poland, which is about to be on the front line.)
Thread 👇🏻 Supposed evidence from the impact site, where #Ukraine shelled #Russian territory in the Rostov area at about 4 AM local time

[It's nearly midday in Moscow, so this is eight hours ago, though only reported in the last hour.]
All of this focus on Minsk has been so overdone. Putin might have accepted Ukraine's capitulation on the point in the summer of 2021, after the first military buildup, as sufficient to obviate the need for war. Not by the November 2021 buildup, though.
#Ukraine's preparedness is a serious concern. The Kiev leadership all along effectively denied this was going to happen; the hope is that was domestic messaging to avoid panic, but ...
You can see this dynamic in #India, too. Most Indians in their heart of hearts actually *do* know better, at least the officials seem to, but for historic reasons they don't want a public fight with #Russia, so Delhi just keeps quiet.
1/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
2/2 For the record on what was said in intelligence leaks about February 16
#Russia potentially nearly doubling the number of troops it has brought up to #Ukraine's borders since the end of January
#Russian strategic nuclear exercises was all it needed
#US Defense Secretary says he has seen the same information and Putin has made his decision to invade #Ukraine
Quite cynical for #Germany to cloak itself in its history and claim to be working for "peace" - while refusing to help #Ukraine prevent or hinder a war so as not to piss off a #Russia from which Germany gets its energy
This is among the reasons, incidentally, that the "#Russia doesn't have enough troops to occupy #Ukraine, so Moscow can't be intending anything too major around Kiev" takes are so off the mark. The Kremlin has troops drawn from the Donbas for the east.
Not that #Belarus' "government" could make #Russia's troops leave if it wanted to, but ...
The incompetence of #Russia in preparing these provocations is matched only by the shamelessness of the Putin government: it makes not a jot of difference that everyone (who wants to) knows this is a pre-fabricated excuse for aggression.
#Russia's allies among the elite in #Ukraine leaving; a notable signal, as with the signs of burning documents at the Russian Embassy in Kiev.
Fortunate, really, that the results of these investigations are worked out in advance, or one would be concerned about the overworking of the employees of the Russian legal system.
Are we sure he said "no", not "the"?
Unfortunately, this outcome is not in doubt
Re talk of this being a "quagmire" for #Russia in #Ukraine or not being able to stabilise things. Just a reminder that this was all said about #Syria seven years ago, and then as now relied on Western mirror-imaging of Russian concepts of "victory" kyleorton.co.uk/2015/09/30/rus… Image
On we go. An interesting - in no sense surprising, but important nonetheless - aspect @michaelh992 has repeatedly highlighted is the way these "separatist" statements and news items appear in #Russia's state media simultaneously, as in often to the second
Notable: Yulia Latynina, who argued (including in the @nytimes) that #Putin was bluffing over #Ukraine, now says she, too, believes he has made up his mind to go to war.
It's very touchy for foreigners sitting safety to be second-guessing #Ukraine's President at a time like this ... It is nonetheless strange for him to leave his capital right now. The #Russian attack could literally begin at any moment.
#Russia's very independent and objective, totally fair and fact-oriented investigation has concluded, after approximately forty-five minutes, that #Ukraine did it - all of it, whatever it was they were asked about.
The entire evacuation, i.e. creation of a refugee situation, was designed by #Russia to claim these people had been attacked by #Ukraine's army, setting up the pretext for invasion
Total coincidence #Russia makes reporting from eastern #Ukraine more difficult
The Russian Communist Party remains absolutely devoted to breaking down the relationship between words and their meaning
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has a reasonable point
No serious reason to dissent from the #NATO secretary-general
The clock continues to run down toward #Russia's assault on #Ukraine
#US intelligence's reach into #Russia has been quite something.
Important to note this from #Australia's Prime Minister: on their own and through Five Eyes, the Australians have better intelligence about #Russia than many European states, certainly than Germany, and frankly than #Ukraine itself.
Sometimes it is what isn't there and what you can't see that is most telling
On the subject of things not seen being the most worrying: #Russia is causing all this trouble in the east of #Ukraine, while being deathly silent in the west - where they will likely attack the capital. Makes tactical surprise more feasible. .
Someone should forward this to the Kremlin so they can see what "encircled state" actually means
The scale of the violence #Russia orchestrated in eastern #Ukraine yesterday is extraordinary. To call these conditions of "ceasefire" stretches the definition, and that's of course the point, to provoke Kiev into reacting, then using it as a pretext
Officials in the Duma musing (in public) on 21 February as the start date for #Russia's attack on #Ukraine
Pravda is "reporting" that #Ukraine is planning an attack on the Russian-occupied #Transnistria zone of Moldova g4media.ro/497221.html
Horrible situation, pointlessly created by #Russia to set up the Kremlin's attack on #Ukraine
We use "the Russians" as a short-hand for the Putin government, and one needn't be too concerned about that. But it is just worth keeping in mind that there are people opposed to this, and some are bravely witnessing for it in direst circumstances
.@trussliz: "[Putin has] been very clear – his ambition doesn't just lead to him taking control of #Ukraine ... The #Baltic states are at risk ... the western #Balkans as well. Putin has said all this publicly". dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
#France has made something of a point of keeping its diplomats in Kiev. See how long that lasts.
Comprehensive thread on one of #Russia's false flag efforts 👇🏼
Hope springs eternal. The problem is exactly that Putin would know this would be a loss; highly doubtful he accepts that after getting this far out on a limb. The argument over whether this started as a bluff has been superseded for the same reasons.
Difficult to judge the point at which going through the motions of keeping diplomatic channels open becomes collaborating in Russian aggression by maintaining the fiction that this might not happen and using up resources to prepare for it
#Ukraine's President apparently sees the "peace process" as the way out of this
Soldiers from #Checnya among #Russia's troops preparing to attack #Ukraine
What a horrible, needless disaster from the #Putin government - and on its "own side", too.
"The U.S. has intelligence that #Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of #Ukraine, with commanders on the ground making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sectors of the battlefield" - @CBSNews journalist cbsnews.com/news/russia-uk…
#Russia's media behaving roughly as one would expect
#US Defense Secretary says it is "highly likely" #Russia will have tanks on the streets of Kiev, the capital of #Ukraine, and the city could "very quickly" be taken.
#Poland is important to watch: there are tripwires in #Ukraine that if #Russia runs over them, will draw in the Poles, no matter what NATO does.
A very strange note from the #US Embassy warning of possible terrorist attacks in #Russia, in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Lunatic ultra-nationalist member of the State Duma, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, announcing the start date of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
Senior official in #Turkey in effect supports #Russia's position over #Ukraine.
Nearly five hours ago, #Russia shelled one of the "capital" cities in the occupied "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine, intending to blame the Ukrainian government.
#France's President Macron spoke for an hour on the telephone with #Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin - @AFP

To what end ...
The purpose of the official messaging from #Ukraine's government remains baffling.
Again, one does not need the Five Eyes assessments on this: #Ukraine's official statement tonight (only the latest of a consistent theme) about #Russia not being ready to go imminently is visibly, demonstrably wrong
Because of the large analytical chorus that has insisted (some still to) that #Russia will not do this, the messaging from #Ukraine's government effectively saying there is nothing to worry about (and the lack of preparations) hasn't been treated as being as crazy as it really is
The other oddity is #France and #Germany keep calling #Putin and arranging meetings. As best I can tell, the theory is that if they've arranged a conference, Putin can't invade before that date because that would be rude, so if they just keep arranging conferences ... Madness.
Not entirely sure threatening Putin that he cannot have a meeting at which he will be begged not to invade Ukraine if he invades Ukraine before the day of the meeting is quite the diplomatic leverage the Europeans and Biden seem to think it is.
During this crisis that might well end with #Russia having #Ukraine back under its control, it has already taken back #Belarus and is consolidating further in #Cuba. Must feel like old times in the Kremlin.
The devastation if #Russia does what it looks as if it is about to in #Ukraine will be of a kind we have not seen in Europe in quite some time.
Seems #Biden has not (yet) accepted the #France-mediated effort for another #US-#Russia meeting on Thursday
The only sensible course for #Ukraine right now - and its neighbours and us - is to be preparing for this scenario from #Russia, and there is no indication, especially in Kyiv, that this has or will be done.
There we are: the White House has now accepted the French-mediated effort for a Biden-Putin conference
#US had sent a letter to the #UN saying it has "credible information" that #Russia is "creating lists of identified #Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation", and will be using "lethal measures" against any protests. washingtonpost.com/context/read-u…
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future conduct. See thread 👇🏻👇🏻
It has been so strange, and legitimately quite scary, to watch, especially as the clock runs down towards the onset of hostilities
#Russia testing if any Western journalist will take the bait
There has not been much in the way of (overt) preparation in #Ukraine
#Latvia saying the sanctions should already have been imposed on #Russia over what it has done in #Ukraine
White House says its acceptance of meeting with Russia on Thursday was entirely theoretical, and they expect [reasonably] that Russia will have invaded Ukraine by then
The Russian government has interestingly decided to reject the offer of a summit with Biden. Notable because Putin usually takes any chance he can get for face-time with the US President.
This illusion seems to be afflicting France alone
#Russia claiming [almost certainly falsely] that #Ukraine has made two efforts today at sabotage operations in Donetsk 👇🏻👇🏻
Relentless stream of fabrications from #Russia
The Donetsk separatist "republic" in eastern #Ukraine "requesting" fraternal intervention from #Russia ...
Republika Srpska in #Bosnia demonstrating its support for #Russia against #Ukraine
This comes after #Russia's puppet "separatist republics" in eastern #Ukraine "requested" Moscow intervene
The #EU's response as we are potentially hours away from #Russia initiating hostilities it has been signalling are coming for three months and more.
#Russia has annexed #Belarus and consolidated in #Cuba as it prepares to retake #Ukraine with force. Now it can add in #Azerbaijan as a state where Russian influence has been formalised throughout this crisis.
Massive number of troops from #Chechnya joining the #Russian forces in #Belarus from where the strike at Kyiv would be launched
No change in the White House assessment: we are on the eve of a major #Russian attack on #Ukraine
Obviously untrue, but #Russia doesn't seem concerned with the credibility of its provocations: it is just seeking to flood the zone
#Russia in full on create-a-shitstorm mode now; no attempt to keep the storylines together, just create enough confusion to act in.
#Russia's puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine have just issued a public request for the Russian government to recognise their independence and provide military assistance.
#Britain's Prime Minister says #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is effectively already underway
Putin currently meeting with the leaders of the Ukrainian puppet republics to decide whether to recognise their independence
#Estonia's Defence Minister says the window for diplomacy, assuming there ever was one, has gone, and #Russia will assault #Ukraine in short order
I don't even know how to describe this Security Council meeting in #Russia over recognising the Ukrainian separatist "republics" as independent. It's a sort of cross between Judge Judy, the Apprentice, and a Soviet show trial.
I'm repeating myself but I can't emphasis how absolutely insane this public Security Council meeting is in #Russia.
At the public #Russia Security Council meeting, the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu has just said #Ukraine - a state run by "radical nationalists" (i.e. Nazis) - is closer to nuclear weapons than Iran and North Korea, and is working on provocations against Russia.
This public #Russian Security Council meeting is clearly building up to some major announcement, but honestly everyone could be too stunned by the time they get there to hear what it is.
Medvedev has now been wheeled out to say this situation in #Ukraine is worse than the threat from #Georgia in 2008. After all the usual about Kyiv's menace to Russia, Medvedev says "the history of mankind" shows people won't put up with these things forever.
After quoting Bulgakov, Medvedev goes on to say Russia rescued many people in 2008 in Georgia and now the "only way out" is to do the same thing in Ukraine. Doing this involves "complicated things, including a military component", but the vast majority of Russians would support.
LMAO Putin says he never asked for anyone's opinion before this pantomime at the Security Council started because it was important to hear their honest views.
#Russia's Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin just called for Putin to recognise the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine.
Valentina Matvienko just said at #Russia's Security Council that Biden can fire officials in D.C., so this shows the Kyiv government is a puppet and Biden could snap his fingers and make peace in #Ukraine. She accuses Kyiv of genocide and ... not providing retirement care.
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council that Russia owes protection to the people in Donetsk and Luhansk because they're Russians, whatever their formal citizenship, and she "can't watch the footage any more" (of Ukraine apparently attacking these areas).
Valentina Matvienko says at #Russia's Security Council asks to be excused for being so emotional, but what has Russia ever done to Ukraine? Moscow never interfered in Ukraine and provided them free gas, and now these genocidaire puppets of America are threatening Russians.
I cannot convey in words how mad this public Security Council meeting in #Russia is.
Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia and former FSB chief, says what I am sure all of the people at this meeting believe: the Kyiv government is simply a puppet of America and it is working to "destroy the Russian Federation".
Patrushev makes clear Russia does not care about talks with anybody except the US, and even there there is nothing to discuss because the US is plotting, through its proxy government in Kyiv, to destroy Russia, so recognising the separatist "republics" is the only way.
Head of the #SVR Sergey Naryshkin says Kyiv will never abide by Minsk, so #Russia should recognise the independence of the separatist "republics" in eastern #Ukraine.
Naryshkin slipped at one point and said he supported annexing these areas of eastern #Ukraine, then rowed back and said it was only independence for them.
Before calling up Lavrov, Putin asked if there were any diverging viewpoints. Apparently nobody wanted to be defenestrated, so no hands went up.
Lavrov brings up Kosovo and "genocide" as leading to the emergence of an independent state without a vote. Lavrov says that Nazis/Banderites that run Ukraine are persecuting Slavs, Orthodox believers, and all Russians. "We can't just stand idly by" as compatriots are humiliated.
Lavrov reiterates the suggestion (I forget who said it earlier, alas) that Biden should be given two or three days to make his puppets in Kyiv abide by the Minsky Agreement, or else the separatist "republics" should be recognised.
Honestly, just an incredible spectacle.
Sergey Shoygu: "We have no borders with Ukraine. We have borders with the Americans, who are pumping weapons and nukes into their puppets [in Ukraine]."
The Security Council meeting ends quite suddenly with Putin thanking everyone for their entirely spontaneous opinions. Says he will make a decision later today on recognising the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine.
The people who have discussed the Ukraine crisis in terms of rational calculations from the Kremlin should be clockwork-oranged with this Security Council meeting.
Trying to work through the shell shock of that Security Council meeting ... Think it is worth underlining that all this focus from #Russia on the Donbas, in messaging and the kinetic provocations, is likely part of the deception operation; the hammer blow will fall in the west.
In other words, this is not, in my humble submission, as some have argued (hoped?), a sign that Putin is reorienting after "his brinkmanship failed" to a more limited operation in the east of Ukraine.
The #US called this Security Council meeting: "The highest levels of the Russian government may theatrically convene emergency meetings ... [and] issue proclamations declaring Russia must respond to defend ... ethnic Russians in Ukraine."
#pt Blinken said there would be a theatrical public meeting on the need for Russia to protect its ethnic kin in Ukraine, adding, "Next, the attack is planned to begin."
#Ukraine's President understandably perturbed by what #Russia just staged
An important part in the Security Council show: specifically claiming to recognise these provinces/"republics" under their pre-2014 borders. Unclear if #Russia will begin in the east, draw away what it can before attacking Kyiv, or hit everything at once
Was truly the most extraordinary moment in what was a generally extraordinary event. You could see Putin as he really is, the blend of Soviet Man and mafioso, the presiding show trial judge with the smirk. No surprise that Naryshkin went to pieces.
#Israel moving its Embassy out of #Ukraine's capital to the main city in the west
#Ukraine reports that a shell from the Russian-occupied zone in the east has hit Novoluganske, 25 miles north of Donetsk, killing a civilian and two soldiers - @AFP.

The clear effort by #Russia is to provoke Kiev into a response that can be used as a pretext to begin this.
As expected, Putin recognises the independence of the two puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine
This 👇🏻 All this rhetoric about the east is a diversion from the west and the capital
Again, no shock at all: #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has been billed as a peacekeeping operation
The #US/others moved to Lviv as an apparent safe city in #Ukraine after departing Kyiv. That the Americans/etc. are now leaving Lviv would seem to indicate they believe #Russia is going to conquer the entire state.
#Iran's Huthis recognise the #Russian puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine
#Ukraine's leadership continues to be alarmingly divorced from reality
Turns out, Zhirinovsky was telling the truth (give or take 100 minutes)
"The #US is still seeing preparations for a potential broad [#Russian] invasion [of #Ukraine] including loading amphibious ships and loading equipment for airborne units." cnn.com/2022/02/21/pol…
The #US sanctions after #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine tonight do not even target Russia.
#Biden administration already defining down "invasion"
Listening to #Putin's speech announcing the onset of the war about six hours ago: it begins with the common stuff of a coup that brought the current #Ukraine government to power, Nazis running Kyiv, Ukraine having nuclear weapons "with support from the West".
#Putin accuses #Ukraine's government, which he portrays as a direct puppet of the #US, of persecuting the Russian Orthodox Church. Says that it has even used #jihadists to oppose Russia in Crimea.
#Putin says #NATO is using #Ukraine to spy on #Russia with drones and would have done the same with #Crimea if the people of the peninsula had not risen up and destroyed these bases.
#Putin doing the thing about #NATO promising not to extend "one inch" into the east after the reunification of Germany, but while #Russia stuck to its obligations by pulling troops out of Eastern Europe, the West took advantage of the weakened Russia.
#Putin says he has never mentioned this before but during #Clinton's visit in 2000 he asked about #Russia joining #NATO and was cold-shouldered. After this, says Putin, the West "supported the terrorists" in #Chechnya.
#Putin says that the basis of all the trouble is the West's refusal to accept a unified and independent #Russia. Putin says the waves of #NATO expansion have threatened Russia and now #Ukraine is all-but joined into this bloc as "the main citadel" of the threat to Russia.
#Putin says that the West's threat of sanctions is not related to anything in #Ukraine; this would be done "without any formal pretext, just because we exist. We will never give up ... our values."
#Putin [projecting] claims that #Ukraine is planning a blitzkrieg in Donbas that will kill innocent civilians, but the "so-called civilised world" does not recognise this "genocide" just because these people oppose the "coup de'etat" by the "Nazis" in Kyiv.
#Putin [again projecting] says that #Ukraine has decided that there is no solution in Donbas without military force. Then announces he is recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk puppet statelets; the "usurpers" in Kyiv have to leave them be or Kyiv will be responsible for bloodshed.
#Putin then signs the document recognising the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" as independent states; the puppet leaders then sign. The agreement spells out the "cooperation and mutual assistance" for the purposes of "peace". Image
There is no reason to think #Putin does not personally and deeply believe this - which is the explanation for why this is happening to #Ukraine.
#India has singularly failed to rise to this occasion
Rather important for #Ukraine to neutralise #Russia's agents as quickly as possible.
#Russia's state media went to #Donetsk to find people celebrating the decision by Russia to recognise their independence. They were able to corral about two-dozen people into it.
Hmm. Let's see. I'm really dubious the EU will target Nord Stream 2 in a meaningful way in the new sanctions.
German Chancellor says Nord Stream 2 is excluded from the EU sanctions on Russia
This is so delusional. It serves no purpose of #Ukraine's for its President to say this right now.
As expected, Russia's puppet "republics" in eastern Ukraine are demanding the extension of their control up to the old provincial boundaries and the removal of Kyiv's control in those areas
Germany halting Nord Stream 2 definitely was not expected
#Estonia has performed extremely creditably throughout this whole crisis
Reiterating a message from the Security Council show and Putin's speech, #Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said that #Ukraine does not meet the definition of a sovereign state, and hasn't done at least "since the 2014 coup d’état". nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/r…
With violence at that scale, and an announced invasion, one might wonder whether there was any ceasefire to monitor
Excellent statement from the Prime Minister. Says #Putin's gambit in #Ukraine "must fail, and must be seen to fail". Boris seems to understand there was never a diplomatic path and Putin is motivated by "mystical" reasons that can only be blocked by force.
#Hungary announces a deployment of troops on the border with #Ukraine, preparing for the fallout of #Russia's attack
#Ukraine leaking the names of #Russia's agents who have been placed around the country to conduct sabotage operations and even a coup attempt in collaboration with the Russian invasion
#Turkey condemns #Russia for recognising the independence of the puppet "republics" in eastern #Ukraine
The White House now calling #Russia's moves against #Ukraine an "invasion"
#Sweden's Prime Minister is *not* calling #Russia's actions against #Ukraine an "invasion". A "violation" of territorial integrity using troops in an invasion-y way, yes, but one has to be clear with language.
Here we go >> The head of #Russia's Federation Council (upper house of parliament) says #Putin has sent a request to use troops abroad.
Given that #Russia's leadership doesn't recognise #Ukraine as an independent state anyway, not sure Moscow will resist this move. Not that any of it matters: the Kremlin has in place its plan and is proceeding step-by-step - nothing can stop that now.
#Russia's parliament rubber stamps #Putin's "request" to deploy troops outside the country
#Russia is evacuating its diplomats from #Ukraine tass.ru/politika/13812…
On current trajectory, the shock-and-awe phase of the #Russian assault on western #Ukraine will have begun before that.
#Russia getting its diplomats out of #Ukraine and cancelling the diplomatic meeting scheduled for Friday should be glaring warning signs of where we are going - and when.
Even as a first step of sanctions against #Russia this seems woefully inadequate to the scale and stage of this crisis from the #EU
One for those who insisted this was all about compelling #Ukraine to implement the Minsk Agreement >> #Putin says the Minsk Accords are dead and were "killed long before" #Russia recognised the separatist "republics" as independent states yesterday. gazeta.ua/ru/articles/do…
#Biden says that #Putin is "setting up a rationale to take more territory by force ... to go much further. This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine". Biden announces more extensive sanctions on #Russia and says the sanctions will ratchet up as Russia escalates. Image
#Biden announces "full blocking sanctions" on two #Russian financial institutions ("VEB and their military bank") and "comprehensive sanctions" on Russia's sovereign debt ("that means we have cut off Russian government from Western financing").
#Biden says the #US has worked with Germany to stop Nord Stream and will impose new sanctions on members of #Russia's elite tomorrow. Because Russia won't withdraw from #Belarus, there will be new US troop deployments in the #Baltics to defend "every inch of NATO territory".
#Biden says the #US "still believe[s] Russia is poised" for a massive attack on #Ukraine, including on the capital, Kyiv, noting that "much of the playbook that Secretary Blinken laid out ... has come to pass".
#Biden says that "defending freedom will have costs. We need to be honest about that." But the sanctions will be targeted to impact #Russia's economy, not the West's.
#Biden says #Putin showed he had no interest in dialogue about European security. "He directly attacked #Ukraine's right to exist and indirectly threatened territories formerly held by Russia that are today ... members of NATO."
#Biden says #Putin still has time to avert doing something that will cause suffering to millions. The #US will "remain open to diplomacy if it is serious. ... I'm hoping diplomacy is still available."
The sanctions on VEB and Promsvyazbank are very much at the shot-across-the-bow end of the spectrum, and perhaps that is the point, since #Biden says this is the first tranche and he remains hopeful #Russia will stand down. Still, relatively weak for so late in the crisis.
#US Secretary of State Blinken has now cancelled his meeting with #Russia's foreign minister that was scheduled for Feb. 24 on the not-unreasonable grounds that with the Russian invasion of #Ukraine underway, there is very little to talk about.
#Singapore, #Japan, and #Taiwan joining the Western effort to sanction #Russia for the assault on #Ukraine foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/bid…
Details on the #NATO (re)deployments to cope with the fallout from #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Details on #Ukraine's reservist mobilisation: far from complete (since that would require martial law), but still of a scale that it will take weeks to complete ... and the assault on the capital is days away at most
Difficult to believe the hopes once placed in Medvedev. Now he represents perhaps the most pathetic figure in the inner circle; his performance at the Security Council show was just tragic.
As #Russia creates all the noise in eastern #Ukraine, its forces continue to build up in Belarus for the strike in western Ukraine aimed at the capital
The fact that so many in the replies think this is in any way a gotcha is a reflection on the dire state of unseriousness among even engaged politicos, not on Trudeau, who has acted for order domestically and abroad of late.
Thread on the evidence confirming that the wild Security Council show was pre-recorded
Interesting: SWIFT not definitively ruled out as being among the #US sanctions that might be imposed on #Russia
The tone and texture of what the Biden people are saying about sanctions on #Russia is far more worrying than the literal substance (which for now has not closed off anything): it looks very much like all the errors of 2014 being repeated
Interesting to see #Putin's remarks on #NATO accession for #Ukraine from 2002. Suspect it is less "democracy" in some abstract sense, though, and more the return of #Russian power (and relative #US decline) that is the major difference between then and now
#Japan imposes its own sanctions on #Russia over the invasion of #Ukraine
#Australia imposes sanctions on #Russia for its aggression against #Ukraine
Slight false flag overkill from #Russia, and not even a single one has yet been remotely convincing
#Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison says a "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine, by Russia, is likely within 24 hours.

From the open source evidence, this is entirely plausible.
Intelligence officials speaking to @FT say #Russia is still to escalate in #Ukraine; the Donbas is just the start, and Kyiv is next.
Ukrainian intelligence expecting a major escalation from Russia in the Donbas over the next 48 hours.
#Putin in pure troll mode offers further talks, even as he is hours away from the long-mediated attack on the the west of Ukraine, intended to put an end to it as a sovereign state in any serious sense.
One of the more obviously ominous signs
ScoMo gave a good speech about what is coming in Ukraine - and when, spelling out that Russia's full-scale attack will likely have started by this time tomorrow
Trump missing a perfectly serviceable opportunity to keep quiet
.@trussliz says she is concerned #Russia's conquest of #Ukraine will not remain contained in Ukraine.

It's not an unreasonable fear: the ideological vision under which Putin is acting involves revisionist claims on a number of states.
The striking thing about all of #Russia's false flags in eastern #Ukraine is how bad they have been. This one is macabre, but in no sense convincing.
#Ukraine moving to prepare the citizenry, though very, very late
State of emergency introduced in the parts of #Ukraine not under overt #Russian occupation
#Ukraine claims to have had some success combing #Russian agents out of the system, though espionage concerns remain and perhaps even more deep concerns about the discipline of the army once it becomes clear #Russia has things going its way.
This kind of messaging has been persistent on #Russian TV of late - though, it should be said, of surprisingly late; the domestic media blitz for the blitz of Ukraine only started within the last two weeks, yet the buildup has been visible since November
The diplomats clearing out. We are probably twelve hours away from #Russia taking this in a scary direction in #Ukraine
Not been absolutely stellar from #Israel during this crisis. As happens more often than either side likes to admit, the Israelis are in a similar predicament to #Turkey's leadership when it comes to dealing with #Russia.
#Israel declares for #Ukraine, albeit while splitting the difference somewhat
#Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced an extra package of military support to #Ukraine, including lethal aid, in the face of #Russia’s invasion. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
#Pakistan proving to be about as useful an ally as ever it has
The junta in #Sudan on pilgrimage to Moscow right as #Russia is preparing its all-out assault on #Ukraine
Massive cyber attack underway [obviously by #Russia] that is preventing #Ukraine's key ministries functioning
As cyber attacks blackout #Ukraine's institutions, bomb scares are being phoned in.
#Ukraine's President has been warned all along what is coming from #Russia and has largely failed to act on it. Let's see if he does more now.
The #Russian flag has been taken down at the Embassy in Kyiv - @Reuters.
From an analyst who long argued that #Russia was bluffing: "All negotiations are off. The Russian Embassy has left [#Ukraine]. Tomorrow is war. The question is what can be done?"
#Russia trying to ratify its propaganda through outside analysts
#Russian aircraft seems to have crossed into #Ukraine for reconnaissance flights. The first wave of the assault in the west will include devastating airstrikes. In tandem with cyber-attacks in state institutions, this is incredibly worrying.
#Hungary joining the #EU policy in dealing with #Russia is going to create some tensions for the pro-Orban, anti-anti-Putin populist Rightists who are safely in countries that aren't about to share a border with Russia.
A horrible decision for #Ukraine to have to make, with potential disaster whichever way things go.
#Ukraine's Ambassador to #Turkey Vasyl Bodnar said: "when the war becomes not only de facto, but de jure - we will ask the Turkish government to consider the possibility of closing the Black Sea straits for the aggressor state [#Russia]." straitstimes.com/world/europe/u…
Not something that matters for diplomacy, but potentially a part of how #Russia will set up the pretext for the full-scale assault.
These false flags by #Russia would be funny, if they were not the prelude to thousands of people being killed
It is just false to say "peaceful solutions" are "the only game in town". The Taliban demonstrated that determined military force works last year; Asad demonstrated it over many years, Russia in 2014 and soon again in Ukraine. To deprive one side of violence is to take sides. Image
State Department spokesman as much as says the #US is out of patience with #Russia using diplomacy to camouflage the onset of its invasion of #Ukraine
Patriarch Kirill the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, as much as blessed Putin's coming assault on Ukraine in his speech on Defender of the Fatherland Day
#Ukraine's foreign minister reporting that the Titan chemical plant in Crimea has been evacuated after it became the target of a #Russian provocation.
The end of the "Russian television isn't preparing Russians for war" narrative
#Ukraine tried well beyond the point it was reasonable to reach peace with #Russia
Hitting the President of #Ukraine hard what he is facing
So, yeah, not gonna be any serious sanctions
Blinken says what is obvious: we are on the eve of #Russia launching an all-out attack on #Ukraine
My own view is that Blinken is being too coy, but there is nothing objectionable in what he said
It's barely more than common sense, but ...
#Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin began an "emergency speech" ten minutes ago that is tantamount to a declaration of war against #Ukraine.
#Putin's speech has no territorial limitations; this is not limited to securing the "independence" of the Donbas "republics". Putin means to destroy #Ukraine as a state.
#Putin - speaking at 5:45am Moscow time, incidentally - announced a "special military operation" in #Ukraine, aimed at the "demilitarisation and denazification" of the country.

It is a declaration of war and the devastating effects of that are moments away.
In his speech, #Putin effectively threatened those who would intervene to defend #Ukraine with nuclear weapons. This is in line with the signalling from #Russia for several weeks.
The reports now are of bombings in #Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. #Russian airstrikes are expected to be a significant part of the shock-and-awe campaign as the Russian government moves to conquer the country.
#Russia has attacked #Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, as well as Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Odessa.
There's a #UN Security Council meeting going on as #Russia begins its all-out assault on #Ukraine. Surreal.
#Russia initiating the attacks through its internal agents in #Ukraine
#Putin's speech declaring war on #Ukraine was almost certainly pre-recorded and released when the #UN Security Council was meeting just because he could; trolling as foreign policy.
I hope everyone appreciates that the world has just changed. Those who wished to weaken the American-led world order, you have your wish; let's see if it redounds to your benefit.
Naturally the United Nations has been a shocking moral abattoir
#Israel clearing out of #Lviv, the city in #Ukraine's west where many Western states that have abandoned Kyiv have retreated to - and not unreasonably: #Russia means to conquer the whole territory; there is no safe zone.
One of the likely fronts in an assault on #Ukraine's capital
Lviv is where the remaining diplomats in Ukraine have retreated to
This 👇🏻 The Russians are hoping for - though by no means relying upon - the disintegration and defection of Ukraine's military, and not by terror alone; as with the rest of the state, it is honeycombed with Russian agents.
Land for time or a breakdown, we will see
#EU states split over sanctions on #Russia, even after the full-scale invasion
The #Russians have seized the International Airport in Hostomel, right near #Ukraine's capital
A European state having to fight in the skies over its own capital against an invading force that means to destroy it - not what was supposed to happen in 2022.
#Russia's government rounding up people who even might protest about the conquest of #Ukraine. Worth keeping the Russian domestic angle in mind: remembering that there is resistance to this - and that the space for such expression is going to shrink.
Signs of economic trouble on the home front for #Russia
Would be charitable to call #Israel "neutral" between #Russia and #Ukraine
#Chechen troops deployed by #Russia in Donetsk in eastern #Ukraine.
Having seized the nearby International Airport, #Russia is closing on #Ukraine's capital, as expected with relentless airstrikes
#Russia has overwhelming advantages; this was always going to only go one way, and quickly. But the lack of preparatory measures from #Ukraine has not helped.
#Russians chanting against the war in Saint Petersburg
#Ukraine's President Zelensky says #Russia has captured airfield near Kyiv - @AFP
The SWIFT option had seemed to be off the table, but the British and some Europeans are pushing for it. Let's see.
Thread 👇🏻 #Russia has come in on three axes, including from #Belarus, and is moving on #Ukraine's capital.
Yesterday, hours before #Russia launched its assault to destroy #Ukraine, John Kerry expressed his concerns about "the massive emissions consequences of the war" and "equally importantly you'll lose people's focus [on climate change]".
Some immensely brave people in #Russia 👇🏻
Been pretty clear for some time that #Russia had prepared to install a puppet government after the fall of Kiev
Mass protest by Russians in Saint Petersburg against #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
Map from @remilitari of the areas of #Ukraine currently occupied by #Russia. Image
#Ukraine's Health Minister Viktor Lyashko confirms that 57 Ukrainians, military and civilian, have been killed so far in #Russia's attack.
#Ukraine has recaptured the Hostomel airfield from #Russia, according to an adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office.
#Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, may fall to #Russia's forces in a few hours since all of Ukraine's air defences have been effectively eliminated, according to "a senior Western intelligence official". bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It seems #Ukraine did not manage to retake the Hostomel Airfield, after all.
#Chechen troops, Praetorians for Putin's proxy ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, filmed somewhere in #Ukraine.
Now it's being reported that #Ukraine *has* retaken the Hostomel Airfield ...
In #Russia, 1,742 people have been arrested for protesting against the Putin government's attack on #Ukraine. The scale of the protests - across 52 cities - in a state and at a time where the known penalties are severe is very impressive. ovd.news/news/2022/02/2…
So, we have a final word on what is actually happening: #Russia still has the airfield and has not lost it since it took it this morning, but it is contested and #Ukraine's forces managed to stop a landing of more Russian troops
#Biden administration channelling the spirit of detente: worried the US will be seen as escalating against Russia, while Moscow announces its escalation against America all over the world (Putin/minions have made clear they see Kyiv as a US puppet)
The oligarchs appealed to #Putin over the economy, and were summarily made aware that the boss doesn't have both oars in the water: Putin said he had to attack #Ukraine, or else it was unclear that #Russia could even continue to exist
Not sure what Macron thought he would get out of this. If he really thought Putin would listen to reason, it would suggest problems with Macron's sanity.
#Biden put in place another raft of sanctions on #Russia on Feb. 24
#Ukraine has resisted #Russia's invasion more, and more successfully, than a lot of intelligence assessments believed. It cannot change the outcome, but it is impressive all the same.
An episode that has already become a morale-booster for Kiev, from Snake Island, where all the #Ukrainian defenders were killed after refusing to surrender to #Russia. President Zelensky awarded them all posthumous Hero of Ukraine medals.
#Russia recruiting by deception for "Wagner"
It seems shortly after Anonymous declared itself to be in a cyber war with Russia, the website for Russia Today went down.
Zelensky asked if #Ukraine was going to be in #NATO and received no reply.

The least the man is owed as #Russia dismantles his government is honesty.
#Russia prepared for the invasion of #Ukraine by arranging to coerce #Germany, and thereby all of #Europe, with restricted gas supplies.
Ukrainians were huddled in bomb shelters in the capital last night, preparing for a wave of airstrikes that it was believed were coming at 3 AM local time [five hours ago]
One of #Ukraine's fighter jets was shot down over the capital a couple of hours ago
Several states have stopped issuing visas to Russians
#Ukraine's resistance has almost certainly set back #Russia's timetable.

The Kremlin wants to use as little force as possible to keep costs (economic + political) down, but if a show of force doesn't - as it hasn't - lead to surrender, violence escalates.
#France reminding #Russia that it is not the only one who has nuclear weapons - something the Kremlin (and a lot of Western citizens and even analysts) often seem to forget
There's every sign of a serious #Russian escalation coming today. Does not look good for Kyiv. Would not be the end of the war, of course, but it radically changes the situation when the enemy captures the capital, with the state institutions.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has said what at this stage must be obvious - #Russia means to kill him if it can - and the move on the capital, whether today or in the next few days, will be able to draw on internal agents for a coup/mutiny.
#Russia has provoked a further deployment of #US troops to defend the #NATO states
Thread on the *relative* restraint #Russia's forces have shown so far. This is based on political considerations for the day-after. There will be an escalation; the Kremlin cannot afford this to drag out. But whether it goes Full Aleppo, we will see.
Thread. It is notable that #Russia abandoned the effort to find a pretext to begin this - influenced by the #US leaks, and probably also by the discipline of #Ukraine's forces in refusing to take the bait of the provocations. We are always behind, though.
Quite worrying what #Biden thinks sanctions can do.
The economic impact within #Russia has been quite serious already. It will not stop the #Putin regime - not least because it might not be a lasting fact. But noteworthy all the same.
All signs pointing to today being an extremely grim one for #Ukraine - even by recent standards.
#India has done itself a lot of political harm during this crisis in #Ukraine. Delhi might have been expected - with #China looming - to be an enthusiastic upholder of the taboo about cross-border aggression, but so it goes.
Thread on what Ukrainian intelligence is expecting from Russia's move on the capital.
Disheartening verdict on #Britain's measures so far: mild annoyances to #Russia, feel-good for Putin's opponents, not much effective.
Thread from a US intelligence official. Bottom line: #Russia can and will overwhelm #Ukraine, but it has shown what anyone following #Syria could see, namely the deep structural weakness of the military if it ever came up against a #NATO army.
#Ukraine's defensive measures against the wave of #Russian attacks about two hours ago had some effect
#Ukraine's military just announced that it is fighting #Russia's forces outside the capital, Kyiv - @AFP
Another data point on #Russia moving rapidly on Kiev today.
The scene after #Ukraine launched a ballistic missile on the Millerovo military airbase within #Russia.
#Russia's deception operations during this war in #Ukraine, as in all prior ones, can be expected to play a key role.
#Ukraine urging citizens to throw Molotov cocktails at #Russian invaders
#pt The Ukrainian President announced late last night that #Russia's sabotage teams were in the capital.
Clearly a desperate situation for #Ukraine: instructions went out a short while ago for citizens to make Molotov cocktails, #Russian have breached the capital, and now there are offers of negotiation.
Air raid sirens in Kyiv.
Insult to injury that #Russia keeps on with this propaganda
As if this situation wasn't surreal enough
About to get very ugly, very quickly in #Ukraine's capital
#Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov just gave a speech saying nobody would occupy #Ukraine; the Russians are there to ensure the country is demilitarised and liberated from oppression so it can choose its own way forward.

An absurd torrent of bullshit, but what else is new
Whether it's confused/unscripted messaging or deliberate obfuscation from #Russia, almost certainly comes to the same thing: Russia will take #Ukraine's capital and might try to annex some of the old elite, but Zelensky himself will be killed if they can
Guess it's better late than never, but when Russian troops are actually in Ukraine's capital is pretty late.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Feb 21
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says Amnesty report accusing Israel of apartheid was deeply flawed, misrepresenting the situation of Arab Israelis, and pressing an ideological point rather than saying what needs fixing. timesofisrael.com/amnestys-israe…
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel, says she agrees with the criticism of Amnesty for the report accusing Israel of "apartheid" in being too monomaniacal in its target; "it stands out, it has been exaggerated."
Molly Malekar, executive director of Amnesty International Israel: "I also have a problem with Amnesty International's approach on antisemitism. Amnesty is supposed to fight antisemitism. It does, but not enough, and sometimes I feel that it needs to be pressured into action."
Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
US intelligence believes #Russia is preparing to stage a false flag incident to justify its initiation of hostilities in #Ukraine. Been a lot of signs for months that Moscow was plotting provocation to ignite this.
#Russia's representative to international organisations in Vienna. At this stage, Moscow isn't even trying as it prepares its provocation to begin the offensive in #Ukraine.
I think we'd all worked out the Russian script that far, but all the same nice to know NATO has, too.
Read 158 tweets
Nov 7, 2021
A man who was recruited, basically abducted into, the Mojahedeen-e-Khalq (#MEK) as a child explains how they illegally transferred kids to Europe, keeping them imprisoned in the cult, and then moved them back to Saddam's Iraq in the 1990s, sometimes using them as child soldiers.
#pt: When the man (امین گل مریم) was transferred to the #MEK camp in Saddam's Iraq in March 2001, at 15-years-old, he was informed that even friendships with women were banned. His mother, whom he saw once per year, was cold with him. MEK asked everyone to spy on everyone else.
#pt: At the #MEK camp in Saddam's Iraq, daily self-criticism/struggle sessions were held. Any signs of criticism of the leader, Masud Rajavi, were picked up on and shamed. Members had to confess any sexual thoughts they had or if they masturbated publicly.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4, 2021
Igor Danchenko, the primary source of the Steele "dossier", has been arrested on as-yet-undisclosed charges as part of the investigation into how "Russiagate" got going. Another Democratic Party-connected lawyer has been charged with lying to the FBI. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The indictment of Igor Danchenko for two counts of lying to the FBI. Danchenko was the primary source used by Christopher Steele in compiling his "dossier" claiming collusion between Trump and Russia.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
From the Danchenko indictment: "the FBI relied substantially on the Company Reports ['Steele Dossier'] in these FISA applications to assert probable cause that Advisor-1 [Carter Page] was a witting agent of the Russian Federation."
Read 24 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
Avrom Sutzkever was sworn in as a witness at the Nuremberg Trials on 27 FEB 1946. Sutzkever was the only Jew to testify, despite the centrality of the Holocaust to the charge-sheet, and he had to testify in Russian (he was a Soviet witness), despite wanting to speak in Yiddish.
Sutzkever had said ten days earlier: "I want to speak in Yiddish … I wish to speak in the language of the people whom the accused attempted to exterminate. I wish to speak our mameloshn [mother tongue]. … May my language triumph at Nuremberg"
Sutzkever had been in Lithuania when the Soviets took it over with a Nazi green-light and was still there and interred in a ghetto when Stalin's allies betrayed him before he was ready. Sutzkever escaped in 1943, reached Soviet lines, and became a Partisan.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
"It seems strangely difficult for some to realize that here in Asia is where the Communist conspirators have elected to make their play for global conquest … There is no substitute for victory" - letter from Douglas MacArthur, read on the floor of the House, 5 April 1951
MacArthur was entirely correct that Truman's Europe-focused strategy and his limited war aims in Korea misunderstood the Communist menace. Shame MacArthur was not heeded.
Read 4 tweets

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