WHERE ON EARTH IS UKRAINE? A BRIEF REFLECTION ON RECENT GERMAN TALK SHOWS 1. No paradigm shift has yet happened in public German perceptions of the "#RussianWar:" For most politicians and commentators, #Ukraine keeps being far away. @UKRinDEU@GermanyinUA
2. Many #Germans subconsciously picture the war the following way. Of course, we are aware that formally #Ukraine is close. But, deep in our souls, we know that Ukraine lies between #Tibet and #Bhutan. Our #Germany, in contrast, is here, close, safe, and warm.
3. We want to keep it that way. Ukraine will have no choice but to stay behind the Himalayas while we will continue living in our old home, the #EU-#NATO continent. Such is life... Sure, we have lots of interest, empathy, and respect for #Ukrainians.
4. We now also fear the Russian death star. But, at the end of the day, what happens in Ukraine - except for some refugees - stays in Ukraine. That is tragic for Himalayan Ukrainians, but it is the sad truth which all - at least, all balanced & analytical - Germans understand.
1. The #Ukrainians' short-term expectations of a defeat of Russia may be overly optimistic. Yet, the mid-term implications of the fundamental changes in the international images of #Russia and #Ukraine during the last two weeks may indeed lead to some sort of Ukrainian victory.
2. Russia's foreign ambitions were already before 2022 overstretched & disproportionate to the capacity of the Russian economy. Now the ambitions have become even more extravagant while the Russian economy is seemingly entering not a recession but a more or less deep depression.
3. On top of the currently imposed & forthcoming sanctions, there will be mounting further problems for Russia's economy resulting from (a) the gradual disengagement of risk-averse as well as ethically woke trade, research and investment partners, not least of the EU, and from...
2. Die riesigen #Energierlieferungen sind durch eine riesige, immobile und schwer ersetzbare Exportinfrastruktur möglich. Daher ist dieser apodiktische Satz eine Spekulation: #Putin|s "Entschluss steht fest und ist aus meiner Sicht durch keine #Sanktion der Welt zu beeinflussen."
1. Allegedly, Poland may be ready to provide its airfields for EU-delivered Soviet-era fighter planes of Ukraine flying attacks against Russian troops over Ukrainian state territory.
2. This would fundamentally change the dimension of the war, as a NATO and EU member starts indirectly supporting #Ukraine's defense efforts. If it materializes, it partly answers Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine.
3. In case this becomes indeed possible, the remaining question would be how many able pilots and functioning planes Ukraine and its partners can bring together on Polish airports.
Somebody is unhappy & has complained to #Facebook/#Meta about my many shares concerning #Russia's #war against #Ukraine. @Facebook has blocked me til 6 March 2022. I complained on 27 February to @Meta that the block has plain political reasons. So far, the block remains in place.
It is not that my posts are exceptionally important. Yet, note that Russia wages an explicitly anti-Western #war in #Ukraine. I am the Western political scientist who has spent most time in Ukraine during the last 20 years (17). I am thus one, among many other, obvious targets.
UPD: Several colleagues kindly sent additional complaints to Facebook during the last half hour. As a result, I seem to have been just unblocked again. Thanks for the empathy and support! That was fast.
NEW APPROACH NEEDED 1. Russia's is now massively targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. It is engaged in military operations in the vicinity of nuclear materials locations, e.g. near the defunct #Chornobyl_NPP and operational #Zaporizhzhia_NPP with its six active reactors.
2. New developments of the last 24 hours mean that the nature of the war is evolving & that the stakes for the West are increasing. Momentous changes on the ground call for congruent changes in the West's approaches to, & policies towards, Russia and Ukraine in at least two ways.
3. First, in view of Russia's now explicitly terroristic war conduct vis-a-vis the civilian population, limiting arms deliveries for Ukraine to only defensive weapons is neither ethically nor strategically justifiable any more. The Kremlin wants to reach its aim via open terror.