Thread by @UmlandAndreas

1. The #Ukrainians' short-term expectations of a defeat of Russia may be overly optimistic. Yet, the mid-term implications of the fundamental changes in the international images of #Russia and #Ukraine during the last two weeks may indeed lead to some sort of Ukrainian victory.

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1501863855865180165

2. Russia's foreign ambitions were already before 2022 overstretched & disproportionate to the capacity of the Russian economy. Now the ambitions have become even more extravagant while the Russian economy is seemingly entering not a recession but a more or less deep depression.

3. On top of the currently imposed & forthcoming sanctions, there will be mounting further problems for Russia's economy resulting from (a) the gradual disengagement of risk-averse as well as ethically woke trade, research and investment partners, not least of the EU, and from...

4. (b) a re-inforced implementation of green (or even temporarily of nuclear) technology solutions especially in the field of energy, at the expense of Russia's main export commodities oil, gas and coal, and from....

5. (c) more and more likely political instability in Russia triggered by both, growing popular awareness of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, and social calamity following the closure of factories, agencies, companies etc.

6. ... as well as rising inflation, shortages, & other economic problems. In sum, the already growing gap between Russian public income, on the one side, & public subsidies for certain groups, regions, projects etc., on the other, will now rise far more steeply than before 2022.

7. This widening gap between #Russian earnings and expenditures will pose ever-tougher questions about the continuing governmental support for all Russian endeavors abroad. While the first "victims" of such cuts may become such entities as Transnistria, Abkhazia, DNR/LNR etc, ...

8. ... one can already imagine a situation in which the continuing subsidization of Russia's most expensive such foreign project, the continuing occupation of illegally annexed Crimea, will come under scrutiny.

9. While a short-term crushing victory for Ukraine may be out of immediate reach, in the mid-term, the coming Ukrainian victory may be rather comprehensive, and result in the recovery of all currently lost lands.

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