My @CBCNews interview: "NATO exercises near Russian borders could be used by Russia to respond and escalate" if Putin decides escalation is in his interest, said Ivan Katchanovski, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa 1/
#Ukraine #ukrainewar
cbc.ca/news/politics/…
@CBCNews has written extensively about conflict in his native Ukraine. Like all wars, this one will end someday. Katchanovski said Ukrainians are counting on something like a Marshall Plan for their country - a massive injection of foreign capital to fund the country's post-war recovery 2
My @CBCNews interview: "It would be very helpful to access private money," said Katchanovski, pointing to private fundraising efforts that already have raised significant amounts of money, such as the one organized by Ukrainian-American Mila Kunis 3/ #Ukraine #Russia #Ukrainians
"But Russia's demands go much further than that, said Katchanovski. "Currently the Russian demands include no NATO membership, demilitarization of Ukraine, Russian-language official status, independence of Donbas, recognition of the annexation of Crimea, and a demand for..." 4/
"... 'denazification'," he said. But the extortionate demands Russia has presented to Ukraine in negotiations do not include ruling out Ukraine's eventual membership in the European Union, said Katchanovski." 5/

@CBCNews #UkraineRussia #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukrayna #UkraineInvasion
@CBCNews My @CBCNews interview: "Ukraine could be offered EU membership as part of a peace deal where it agrees to renounce NATO membership and declares itself neutral," said Katchanovski. "This would present Ukraine with something tangible and generate public support."" 6/
#Russia
@CBCNews "Katchanovski says that the harshness of final peace terms will depend entirely on the progress of the war.
"If Russia achieves more significant military success, this would lead to Ukraine losing its independence or becoming a Russian client state ..." 7/
#RussiaUkraineWar
My @CBCNews interview cont.: "... with some kind of formal union between Russia and Ukraine." 8/

#UkraineConflict #Russia #UkraineCrisis #RussianUkrainianWar #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussia #RussiaUkraineConflict
@CBCNews "Katchanovski said the Europeans know their position is weak. "Russia would just stop delivery of natural gas to western Europe and other EU countries like Poland and Slovakia," he said. "This would lead to very negative consequences for these countries."" 9/
#Ukraine #Ukrainians

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Mar 26
"Biden ends speech in Poland by calling for Putin's removal, saying, 'For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power.'"
Regime change? "WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Biden ends speech in Poland by calling for Putin's removal, saying, 'For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power.'" #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar
Read 6 tweets
Mar 24
Yes. I suggested in my interviews and publications before & after start of #RussiaUkraineWar that granting #Ukraine EU membership prospects in exchange for neutrality & ending #Donbas war could be crucial element of peaceful resolution of #UkraineRussiaConflict

#UkraineRussiaWar
"Such an agreement could offer Ukraine a path to membership in the EU, provided it fulfills accession criteria—... democracy, the rule of law, human rights—in exchange for agreeing not to seek NATO membership and to resolve the conflict in the Donbas..." canadiandimension.com/articles/view/…
"A peaceful conflict resolution can be done via an international agreement that offers Ukraine European Union membership prospects provided that it fulfills accession criteria [democracy] in exchange for neutral status and resolving the conflict in Donbas" truthout.org/articles/lies-…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 20
Democracy: #Zelensky & his National Security and Defense Council of #Ukraine suspend activities of 11 opposition parties for "ties to Russia". They include Opposition Platform for Life, Party of Shariy & Opposition Bloc which condemned #Russian invasion. pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/2…
Banned #Ukrainian parties by #Zelensky: Opposition Platform - For Life (2d largest faction), Shariy Party, Ours, Opposition Bloc, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialists & Bloc of Vladimir Saldo.
Democracy: All #Ukrainian TV news channels now must broadcast United News marathon around clock. #Zelensky signed decree on "single information policy" in #Ukraine. It's "implemented by merging all national TV channels" that have news programs & analytics.
strana.news/news/382526-vo…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 19
In my live interview for national evening show on Canada Corus/@globalnews radio network, I said that social media provide a lot of wishful thinking concerning #RussiaUkraineWar. This applies to Western-dominated Twitter & Facebook & to Russian-dominated Telegram & Vkontakte 1/
@globalnews My assessment is based on my research concerning
#RussiaUkraineWar and and other wars, such as war in #Donbas, second Chechen war & #Russia-Georgia war, and media coverage of these wars. 2/

#Ukraine️ #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar
Putin’s statements suggest that he invaded #Ukraine in order to implement regime change from pro-Western state to pro-Russian or at least neutral state. My analysis suggests that Ukraine is in very difficult situation because #Russia has significant military advantage. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 18
#Russian demands to #Ukraine: "first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet. Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato." #Zelensky "conceded this"" 1/
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
#Russian demands to #Ukraine to end #UkraineWar : "Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification." #Russia 2/
"The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 16
"Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks." 1/
ft.com/content/7b341e…
"The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed.., would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said" 2/
#Ukraine president office head adviser re deal: "troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas & territory to the east and north of Kyiv. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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