Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
Apr 22 4 tweets 3 min read
Could not be saved and broke the trend line. Heading to next level of 33291...

Will Monday continue with fall or would it rebound after touching 33291 zone.

#DowJones
#USMARKET
#stock
#BlackFriday
33716 is also a support.. We will have to see price action at this level on Monday. Can offer some support.

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More from @optionurol

Apr 23
History Repeats, Are we Listening ?

A Thread 🧵on Economic Cycles, Past & Present, What we Know and What we Do Not.

#Economics #Commodities #recession

@SahilKapoor @virtual_kg @avasthiniranjan @nsitharaman @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @riteshmjn @bloombergquint @PauloMacro
We are in a cycle of historical oscillation


Economic instability driven by a pathogen, reminiscent 2018; the outbreak of the Spanish Flu.

More than a century later, where do we go from here?

2/n
As a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with wars and economic shocks, are we at the beginning of a new supercycle of history?

What is an economic cycle, or oscillation ?
Read On....
3/n
Read 19 tweets
Apr 22
ADANI GROUP of Companies - Absurd Valuations ??

Let us read in this thread , compiled from an article from @TheKenWeb


#investing #AdaniGroup #Nifty50

@CNBCTV18News @moneycontrolcom @ZeeBusiness
Right now Adani group has a combined market cap of $ 280 Billion



LIC increased their stake by 2%

International Investment in the offing - $2 Billion


Gautam Adani is world’s 6th richest person (Net Worth - $120 Billion)
Adani Group Debt over 6 Years - Increase by 66% (~$ 20.4 Billion )

Could these factors in itself be considered over valuation and lead to it being a big bubble which can burst ??
Read 13 tweets
Apr 15
Understanding Lifestyle Creep - A Thread 🧵

Lifestyle inflation, is overspending after your income increases.
It can occur over years and difficult to spot unless
you are on top of your budget

#personalfinance #FinancialFreedom #financialplanning #lifestyle
Basically increase in spending after receiving a raise instead of saving the additional income.

Or if monthly loan payment got over & extra cash now not saved but spent on non essential items

Once this takes over, new cash gets spent as fast as — or faster than — it comes in.
It's normal for lifestyle spending to increase when we get a better income. We want to treat yourself after working hard to make that money. Where it becomes problematic is when the increase in lifestyle outpaces the increase in income.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 14
Have a look at India Bond Yield.

Sharp reaction to MPC Review, 10Y yield rising 20 basis points to 7.12%. Shorter-term yields also rose, as did rates on CP and CD.

Article by @dugalira
Read at: tinyurl.com/mr3ve2se

@bloombergquint
@NeerajGambhir says India's MPC may raise rates by as much as 100-150 basis points in the current cycle

Even if we take the repo rate to 5-5.25% over 12 months, the real yield will continue to be neutral to -ve. MPC stance of 100 -150 points would be somewhat accommodative.
10-year bond yield may settle between 7.25% and 7.50% assuming the rate hikes play out as expected

And RBI Support in first half of FY 22 - 23 by bond buying of Rs 1-1.5 lakh crore

Excellent RBI MPC Review:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
A Thread on Debt to GDP Ratio 🧵



The debt-to-GDP ratio compares a country's debt to its total economic output measure by GDP for the year.


This ratio tells how the economy is doing and allows comparison.

Lets Look at where the world stands



@sahilkapoor @dugalira
What does % Mean



>100 : Country not producing enough to pay debt



100 : Just enough to pay off debt



<100: Enough economic output to make debt payments
If The % > 100: Higher risk of default and country will get loan at higher interest rate.

That further perpetuates the cycle by increasing debt —> looming financial crisis

Like the Hedonic Treadmill
Read 11 tweets

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