Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Apr 28 21 tweets 12 min read
Day 63 of #Russian invasion of #Ukraine: +1,900 missile launches since start of invasion - most of missile / airstrikes vs Ukraine in #Mariupol & #Donbas, per a senior US defense official
NEW: US assesses there are now 92 #Russia|n battalion tactical groups now inside #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia making "slow & even...incremental progress in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"But there has been continued pushback by the #Ukrainians...a lot of back & forth" the official says, noting Russian forces in #Ukraine still plagued by logistical issues
NEW: #Russia starting to move some forces away from #Mariupol & to the NW, per a senior US defense official
US security assistance to #Ukraine - more than 60% of the promised M777 #Howitzers have been transferred to Ukrainian forces, per a senior US defense official

2nd group of +50 Ukrainian troops training on the Howitzers started Wednesday...
Additional training being done outside of #Ukraine on other systems on the M113 armored personnel carrier & with radar systems, per a senior US defense official

Once trained -by US, others- these Ukrainian troops will train other Ukraine forces, official says
155 artillery rounds continuing to flow into #Ukraine,
per a senior US defense official
"They are taking losses, they are suffering casualties"
per a senior US defense official, though official cautions the 92 Russia|n battalion tactical groups inside #Ukraine are "functional"
#Russia working to improve logistics & sustainment BUT "we do not assess they've fixed all their problems" per a senior US defense official

"We can see at least one reason why they aren't making a lot of progress...they are still wary of getting out ahead of their supply lines"
NEW: Spring weather threatening to muck up #Russia|n efforts in #Donbas, eastern #Ukraine

"We would expect some of their progress will be slowed, frankly, by mud & weather conditions", per a senior US defense official
#BlackSea "largely show of force activity...to give pause to the #Ukrainians in the south" per a senior US defense official

"They are capable of doing some cruise missile launches" per official
US security assistance focused on giving #Ukraine systems that will be helpful in fight in #Donbas but also systems with which Ukrainian forces are familiar or can be trained on quickly, per a senior US defense official
US training of #Ukraine forces-"Small numbers of Ukrainians are being pulled out for a short periods of time" per a senior US defense official

Says 2 groups of abt 50 troops on the #Howitzers, 15-20 troops on the radar systems
"These are pretty reliable and fairly easy to use systems" per a senior US defense official

re Training of #Ukraine forces
US, allies have delivered spare parts to #Ukraine to get Ukrainian aircraft operational, flyable again, per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n troops leaving #Mariupol - "We don't believe that the number is insignificant" per a senior US defense official

"Our sense is the fighting goes on in Mariupol" official says, noting you don't bomb a city if you think you have it already
Just more than 20 #Russia|n battalion tactical groups outside #Ukraine for rest & refitting - no word on their operational status, per a senior US defense official

"We still assess they're having morale and cohesion problems"
Foreign mercenaries fighting with #Russia|n forces -"We know the Wagner group is in the #Donbas & that they have recruited" some from #Syria, #Africa, per a senior US defense official
Day 63 and #Russia still does not have any air superiority over #Ukraine - air space still "so dynamic & so contested" per a senior US defense official

Many of the Russian airstrikes are still being launched from inside Russia, per the official
"We do believe #Russia|n forces have committed war crimes. We do believe Russian forces have committed atrocities" per a senior US defense official

That includes executions of #Ukraine forces, though official says cannot confirm some recent allegations
Fighting between #Ukraine, #Russia|n forces near #Izyum - "There's just a lot of back and forth" per a senior US defense official "On any given day, it changes"

"They [Russia] are making some slow, incremental progress but not enough that it changes the battlefield situation"

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More from @jseldin

Apr 29
Happening now: Briefing at the Pentagon with @PentagonPresSec John Kirby Image
BREAKING: US announces it has started training on #Ukraine troops on artillery, radar systems and armored systems in #Germany, per @PentagonPresSec

Training being done by members of the @FLGuard who had been in Ukraine before the invasion
MORE: @PentagonPresSec says training for #Ukraine troops also underway or soon to be underway in other countries

"We're grateful to be able to restart some of this training on these key systems going forward," he says
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29
Day 64 - #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

Now +1,950 missile strikes since start of conflict - preponderance of strikes now concentrated vs #Mariupol, #Donbas w/"dumb" bombs, per a senior US defense official
NEW: Indications #Russia trying to target #Ukraine's ability to maintain/resupply Ukrainian forces across the country

"We're seeing at least attempted attacks on electrical power facilities" per a senior US defense official
US assesses missile strikes that hit residential areas near #Kyiv may have been intended for #Ukraine military production facilities

"We're not 100% certain they meant to hit residential areas" in #Kyiv, per a senior US defense official
Read 25 tweets
Apr 28
Happening now: News conference by @SecDef Lloyd Austin & #Canada DefMin Anita Anand Image
"We know we can count on the enduring partnership" w/#Canada, per @SecDef
US, #Canada spoke not just about #Ukraine but also about "a free & open #IndoPacific" per @SecDef
Read 10 tweets
Apr 28
NEW: US @DeptofDefense confirms an estimated $7.12 billion worth of military equipment provided to the Afghan security forces prior to their collapse "remains in Afghanistan in varying states of repair"

Total of $18.6 billion had been provided to Afghan forces from 2005-2021
"It is important to remember that the $7.12 billion figure cited in the Department’s recent report to Congress corresponds to ANDSF equipment & not US military equipment used by our forces" per @DeptofDefense spox Army Major Rob Lodewick in statement
"Nearly all equipment used by US military forces in #Afghanistan was either retrograded or destroyed prior to our withdrawal" per @DeptofDefense's Maj. Lodewick in statement
Read 10 tweets
Apr 27
.@Microsoft report warns of "relentless and destructive #Russia|n cyberattacks" as part of a hybrid war vs #Ukraine

"At least 6 separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch[ed] more than 237 operations...including destructive attacks that are ongoing" per @TomBurt45
The #Russia-linked attacks vs #Ukraine "threaten civilian welfare" per @Microsoft's @TomBurt45 in blog post

Attacks "have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities..."
#Russia's #cyber attacks "have not only degraded the systems of institutions in #Ukraine but have also sought to disrupt people’s access to reliable information & critical life services... & have attempted to shake confidence in the country’s leadership" per @TomBurt45
Read 9 tweets
Apr 27
Happening now: Pentagon briefing with @PentagonPresSec John Kirby
NEW: "More than half" of the 90 #Howitzers designated for #Ukraine now in Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec

A second tranche of training for Ukrainian troops outside Ukraine set to begin on that system, w/1st tranche completed earlier this week
US military recruitment struggles/all-volunteer force - Recruiters "aren't taking anything for granted in the recruiting environment" per @PentagonPresSec

Calls recruiting numbers lagging indicators but says numbers likely to get worse
Read 13 tweets

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