Thread by @jseldin

Day 64 - #Russia invasion of #Ukraine

Now +1,950 missile strikes since start of conflict - preponderance of strikes now concentrated vs #Mariupol, #Donbas w/"dumb" bombs, per a senior US defense official

NEW: Indications #Russia trying to target #Ukraine's ability to maintain/resupply Ukrainian forces across the country

"We're seeing at least attempted attacks on electrical power facilities" per a senior US defense official

US assesses missile strikes that hit residential areas near #Kyiv may have been intended for #Ukraine military production facilities

"We're not 100% certain they meant to hit residential areas" in #Kyiv, per a senior US defense official

NEW: #Russia appears to be preparing a "sustained, larger & longer offensive" in eastern #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"Incremental, uneven" advances to SE of #Izyum, per official but Russian "ground movements are fairly plodding"

#Russia - "They are behind schedule in what they were trying to accomplish in the #Donbas" per a senior US defense official

re #Ukraine

"We would not assess that they have everything they need in place to be fully successful' in eastern #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Official says Ukrainian forces "putting up a stiff resistance"

More 155 mortar rounds getting into #Ukraine, with additional shipments on the way, per a senior US defense official

"More than a dozen flights" set to leave US in next 24 hours w/#howitzers, mortars, drones, etc.

In past 24 hours, 20 security assistance deliveries to multiple locations in the region from 7 different nations, per a senior US defense official

US NOT getting #Ukraine forces out of Ukraine for training - only helping with transport once they are out of the country t facilitate training, per a senior US defense official

"That transportation starts and ends outside of Ukraine"

US training "really is driven by how many [troops] the Ukrainians want trained on a given system" per a senior US defense official

"It will go on for as long as it needs to go" official says of the training

The fight in the #Donbas - "We've already seen is deeply reliant on long-range fires" per a senior US defense official, on need for US #howitzers to #Ukraine

"There are no US forces training in #Ukraine" per a senior US defense official

#Russia in the #Donbas "at least several days behind where they wanted to be" per a senior US defense official

"They mean to be much further along" in efforts to encircle #Ukrainian troops in the east, per the official, adding #Moscow has not been able to link north & south

#Russia's nuclear posture - "We do not assess that there is a threat of the use of nuclear weapons" right now, per a senior US defense official

US not changing its nuclear posture for now, either

"The #Ukrainians continue to resist effectively in the #Donbas...one of the reasons we think the #Russia|ns are behind schedule in the Donbas is bcs of the Ukrainian resistance" per a senior US defense official

US expecting a "longer slog" as fighting intensifies in the #Donbas

"It could go on for some time" per a senior US defense official, calling th battle between #Ukraine, #Russia forces a "potential knife fight...shaping up that way"

"No active discussion" about providing #Ukraine with long-range US air defense systems, per a senior US defense official

US continues to provide Ukraine with Stingers

"We do show some [#Russia|n] kinetic activity, in other words, some strike activity around #Kharkiv" per a senior US defense official

#Ukraine forces in control despite intensified Russian push there

#Russia|n logistic woes...

"In #Mariupol we're seeing a predominance of the ordnance being dropped is dumb ordinance, not precision guided [PGM]" per a senior US defense official

"We think that that speaks to the challenges that the Russians are having with PGM replenishment"

US observing increased #Russia|n strike in central #Ukraine / #Kyiv & in the #Odesa area

"In general, what we think they're trying to do is get at the ability of the Ukrainians to to replenish their own stores and to reinforce themselves" per senior US defense official

"For instance, we're seeing at least attempted attacks on on electrical power facilities, perhaps bcs the #Russia|ns believe if they can knock out some electricity, they can affect the ability of trains for instance to move" per senior US defense official

"Some of the strikes in #Kyiv, we believe, were meant for military production capabilities" per the senior US defense official

"I know that there's reports that they hit residential areas....we're not 100% certain that they meant to hit residential areas"

"The strikes around #Odesa are a little bit more difficult to discern exactly what they're [#Russia] doing there" per a sr US defense official

More on #Russia|n military activity near #Odesa: "Could be of a piece of their efforts to try to pin down Ukrainian forces in the area btw Odesa & #Mykolaiv so that they can't come to the assistance of their colleagues further in the east in the #Donbas area" per the US official

#Russia in the #Donbas: "We believe that essentially what they're doing is is continuing to set conditions for a sustained & larger & longer offensive" per a senior US defense official

"They're trying to set the proper conditions for four sustained offensive operations"