Dave Keating Profile picture
May 9 5 tweets 4 min read
#Macron has taken the floor after receiving the recommendations of the citizens’ #CoFoE conference, including a call for treaty change.

He says Europe must unite, including in defence, in order to protect member countries from the Russian threat.
Macron says the conference’s proposals will be evaluated in September and then acted upon [possibly with a convention drawing up treaty change, for instance].

He says the conference will not be just a talking shop. He promises EU reform.
And here it is, the big announcement:

#Macron says, in English, 🇪🇺 must do “whatever it takes” (quoting 🇮🇹PM #Draghi) to become sovereign & efficient.

That will mean reforming treaties, and he will discuss this with other leaders at the June #EUCO summit.
If some EU countries are afraid of change (such as the 10 Nordic & Eastern countries who this morning circulated a letter denigrating the #CoFoE citizens conference) they can sit it out.

“Multi-speed Europe already exists,” Macron notes. EU’s outer circle could move slower.
TLDR: #Macron will call for a [constitutional] convention for 🇪🇺 treaty change at June European Council summit of national leaders.

He may push his idea for a core federal EU and an outer slower EU.

@VonDerLeyen announced today she’s open to treaty change. 🇮🇹PM Draghi said same

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More from @DaveKeating

May 9
So why are the Nordic & Eastern EU countries opposed to treaty change and the Western & Southern countries are (increasingly) for it? Size matters.

Smaller countries don't want to lose their ability to veto EU laws (like we're seeing now with Hungary vetoing the 🇷🇺oil embargo).
So the battle lines are being drawn. Why did this all come to a head today? It started in 2017, when Macron had the idea for a citizen's convention to recommend reforms for the EU.

But it was steadily diluted, almost designed to fail. berlinpolicyjournal.com/has-eu-reform-…
EU national governments are still traumatized by the constitution-turned-Lisbon-Treaty experience of 2000s. They're scared of opening the pandora's box of treaty change again.

But this change is a normal part of the EU's development. This is the longest EU has gone without it.
Read 7 tweets
May 9
The closing ceremony of the #CoFoE conference recommending 🇪🇺 treaty change has started with an interpretive dance recital and I’m really confused. audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/2
Now Guy Verhofstadt is speaking in French and I’m really confused!

Never seen him speak in anything other than English in this hemicycle.
Now he’s speaking English.

“In contrast to what we may think, people don’t fear change,” Verhofstadt tells national EU governments. “On the contrary, they urge us to reform the 🇪🇺union, and they want this to happen now.”
Read 7 tweets
May 9
How immensely typical.

EU national governments ask citizens to recommend reforms for 🇪🇺. Then, when they don't like what's been recommended (treaty change), 10 of them write a letter scolding the citizens: 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇸🇮🇧🇬🇨🇿🇲🇹politico.eu/newsletter/bru…
But not every country agrees with these 10 reactionaries that 🇪🇺 works perfectly fine.

🇮🇹PM Draghi endorsed treaty change earlier this month.

🇫🇷President Macron is expected to do so at his speech accepting the #CoFoE recommendations in 2 hours. audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/2
This #CoFoE didn't end up being the bold exercise Macron originally envisioned. The power-preserving instincts of national capitals kicked in (as I wrote here in 2020).

But today Macron will try to ride current momentum for change driven by 🇷🇺 invasion.
berlinpolicyjournal.com/has-eu-reform-…
Read 4 tweets
May 2
Speaking after the emergency meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels, French minister Barbara Pompili says ministers agreed that the conditions of their contracts should be respected.

She says the Commission provided guidance on legality of paying in rubles.
Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson says she explained to ministers that payment in rubles constitute a clear violation of sanctions against Russia, "and cannot be accepted".

"Countries should not have any illusions they can rely on the good faith of Gazprom in this matter"
🇪🇺Commissioner Simson disputes the Bloomberg story that a number of European countries are already paying for #RussianGas in rubles.

She says she’s not aware of any EU country that is doing so or has announced their intention to do so.
Read 8 tweets
May 2
Waiting for the 🇪🇺 energy ministers to arrive for the emergency summit to agree an oil embargo against #Russia and a united stance on #Putin’s demand to pay for gas in #rubles.

The decisions taken today will have ripple effects throughout the global economy.
@BarbaraPompili,🇫🇷French Minister for Ecological Transition who convened this emergency meeting of energy ministers, stresses upon entering that the purpose of today's summit is to respond to Russia shutting off the gas taps to #Poland & #Bulgaria, not to discuss the #OilEmbargo.
"Today's council is exclusively on the question of gas and not on the question of oil," Pompili tells a reporter who asks about the embargo.

"We have other discussions that are ongoing, but we must stay focused today on the issue of gas."

Playing down expectations?
Read 15 tweets
May 2
🇪🇺energy ministers holding an emergency meeting today to discuss how to respond to Russia shutting off the gas taps to #Poland & #Bulgaria - and clarify whether paying for gas in rubles would violate the EU's #RussiaSanctions.

They'll also try to find agreement on a #OilEmbargo.
What we know for sure is any 🇪🇺 embargo on #RussianOil won't begin immediately. It would probably be phased out by end of the year.

In order to avoid an #Orban veto, #Hungary may have to be granted exemptions. #Italy & #Greece also need more convincing. But #Germany is on board.
Today's emergency meeting starts 3pm. If 🇪🇺 agrees oil embargo it will send shock waves through the world economy, analysts predicting it will lead to even higher inflation. There are fears of resulting social unrest.

#Brussels & #Washington in talks on how to cushion the blow.
Read 4 tweets

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