TIME TO ENTER & NOT EXIT FROM EQUITY at this juncture

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid.
We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs
But please remember, that after 60% investment in Equity if markets correct, for some time that portion will show negative returns for a short while. That should not perturb us as these investments would have been done at reasonable valuation Zone.
Hence very soon when markets start rising, this strategy will help us deliver very decent returns over longer period of time.

Intention is to invest at right Valuations rather than at any valuations.
If markets recoup yesterday's losses, you may invest 50:50 in favour of Equity and follow rest of the strategy

Remember, impact of actual #QT is still not visible in this market

Even post markets going in Green in Nov 08, it still went down by further 40% by Mar 09. Don't panic
This is not the time to be conservative. Such levels of markets come very infrequently.

Remember March 2020 collapse lasted less than a month before bouncing back.
Post your investments, markets may remain listless or sideways, that can be expected due to huge bull run it has experienced for quite some time now;especially US markets

One can relax only when one has invested at right Valuations.Otherwise you will always remain on tenterhooks

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More from @IamMisterBond

May 12
#AMCs are manufacturers and will offer a basket to select from. Would anyone have invested if they came with NFO in March 2020?

It is duty of #Advisors/#Investors to invest or ignore. Just because AMCs offer is no criteria to invest.

Need to introspect before blaming others
Same is the case with IPOs, their timings and their valuations. Companies also come with #IPOs when markets were on a roll.

Again, investors had a choice to invest or ignore.

They invested with GREED and FOMO and now blaming others for these IPOs bombing
Why can't #Investors respect market signals? When going was good, they ignored advice of following #AssetAllocation.

When markets are bleeding, looking at scapegoats for their own actions.

This is #SelfAttribution bias. All good - their skill, all bad - blame it on others
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Many have asked me to create a thread on why to invest in Debt when interest rates go up post RBI raising rates. A thread on the same
When interest rates go up, price of underlying securities come down and vice versa. There is inverse correlation to interest rates and price of bonds
At the peak of interest rates, price of bonds should have corrected immensely. If we compare this in Equity parlance: when should one invest? When markets are down (cheap valuations) or when up (expensive valuations)?
Read 11 tweets
Mar 13
Lot of #AMCs come up with different ideas, themes, sectors.

These are demands from #Investors as they have done well in recent past.

AMCs are manufacturers & will offer what is in demand.

Final choice to say YES or NO lies entirely with Investors based on their #NEEDs
What should investors choose and what should they ignore. A point by point guide on where and why to invest in certain #themes, #MarketCap bias, #Sectors, #AssetClasses etc.

What should be criteria for these selections and what should guide them to resist from Investing?
Lets start with #Debt:

Keep enough money as 1 year of your expenses as #EmergencyFunds in #LiquidSchemes

You already have enough exposure to debt as:

1. #PPF
2. #TaxFreeBonds
3. #FDs

No need for separate debt allocation if you are investing thru #AssetAllocation (AA) or #DAAF
Read 16 tweets
Feb 22
From Jan 2018 to peak of #EquityMarkets on 18th Oct 2021, #SmartInvesting of @IamMisterBond underperformed #BuyAndHold only against #NIFTY50 but beat NIFTY Mid and Small Cap 100 by a big margin.

Post that, markets have been #volatile with downward bias Image
Results of Smart Investing v/s Buy & Hold under all Market Caps is for all to see - with 1) lower volatility, 2) beating results of Buy & Hold by big margins

#SmartInvesting switched to Equity in Mar 20 after downside protection and switched back to DAAF by Jul 20
3) Values under Buy & Hold have gone down substantially from Oct 2021 to Feb 2022 v/s values going down marginally under Smart Investing due to being in #DAAF, 4) Smart Investing portfolios better placed at current juncture to take advantage of market #volatility v/s Buy & Hold
Read 6 tweets
Jan 24
#Budget2022 wish list:

Congratulations to @nsitharaman and @PMOIndia to guide our country thru this #pandemic period. You have avoided excesses of many countries during this period. Thanks to that #India is touted as the next preferred #investment destination.
It is dream of our Hon #PMModi to reach $5 trln economy very soon. For that, besides Govt spending, you will need help from citizens to save, invest and channel the same to productive use through investment vehicles like Mutual Funds.
Our #MutualFund Industry has grown from 25 lac crs to currently 37 lac crs and likely to touch 100 lac crs.

#MF mobilizes #savings of all #Investors - #retail, #HNI, #Institutional and helps in growing our economy by participating in #Debt and #Equity - key drivers for growth
Read 15 tweets
Jan 10
We have been told following:
1. Time in market more important than timing the market
2. Long Term is 5 yrs plus

Chart will prove the above wrong. First, timing the market is more important then time in the market

Entry as important as Exit points. There are many such examples
Investing at right Valuations is of paramount importance

Cannot buy at any levels and expect good returns going forward

If bought at expensive valuations-long term may change from 5 to 7 to 10 years

From 01-01-08 to 01-01-21 - 14 years NIFTY - 7.63% p.a. -sub optimal returns
When one invests at expensive valuations-like current period, you are eating into future returns

In such instances, tone down your future returns expectations

Otherwise you will have regrets and disappointments in future

Invest wisely without having #FOMO thru #AssetAllocation
Read 4 tweets

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