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May 13 • 23 tweets • 14 min read
Thread: 13 May 2022: Day 79 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The BBC doing in #Russia the kind of journalism its "impartiality" doctrine often keeps it from doing at home
- Russian airstrikes in the south, inc Mariupol, but hesitant beyond that in bad weather
- Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian-held zones
- Russian force around Izyum showing signs of strain
- Ukraine pushing back in Mykolaiv
- Some explosions north of Kherson
There is evidence #Russia's soldiers have been using sexual violence against children in #Ukraine, says Dame Barbara Woodward, Britain's ambassador to the UN. The Russians have also been destroying schools in Chernihiv. news.sky.com/story/ukraine-…
Republican Senator Rand Paul has blocked the vote in the Senate on the #US aid package of $40 billion to #Ukraine. Paul wants the language of the bill edited. Either way, a vote will likely pass the bill next week and President Biden will sign it into law. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A lot of analysis that concluded, "Russia will eventually grind out victory in Ukraine", even after observing the initial disaster, was based on the idea that the shock of that experience would force corrections on the Russian army, which have not happened
After a slightly shaky start, @trussliz has been doing an excellent job for #Britain. This transition within #Ukraine is also an important outcome #Russia has forced: detaching the Ukrainian military from Russian equipment and by extension much more.
#Ukraine's drones are having a field day against #Russia on and around Snake Island
Mini thread
Igor Girkin gently accusing the Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu of treason for feeding Putin false information about the state of things in Ukraine on the eve of the invasion
Exactly the right message from #Britain: any lull in the fighting in #Ukraine is not a reason to relax, but a reason to redouble our efforts to ensure #Russia's defeat is total.
All perfectly normal stuff
#China apparently not impressed with #Russia's efforts in #Ukraine
Not terribly helpful to #Turkey for Erdogan to sound-off like this. Ankara had been making headway politically because of its support for Ukraine and has Biden pressing Congress over the F-16 bill. There's a real issue here, but now's not the time.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky has fiercely criticised #France's President Macron, saying Macron's "mediation" efforts had put pressure on Kiev and tried to gain "concessions regarding [Ukrainian] sovereignty". Macron's efforts were to give Russia "a way out" and all "in vain".
#Britain's intel:

- #Russia is concentrating on Izyum and Severodonetsk, trying to envelop #Ukraine's forces and break through to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

- Russia's effort to put a bridge over Seversky Donets shows their desperation to show results
#Britain has announced sanctions on #Putin's "wallet" (12 people who handle his personal money), including his mistress Alina Kabaeva; ex-wife Lyudmila Ocheretnaya; several cousins; friend Alexander Plekhov; childhood friend Vladimir Kolbin gov.uk/government/new…
Foreign Ministers of #Finland and #Sweden will meet with their counterpart from #Turkey in Berlin tomorrow to discuss Ankara's views of the Scandinavian states' accession to #NATO

- @Reuters
As important a political event as it is a legal one: #Ukraine beginning the war crimes trial while #Russia's war on the state is still going
#Ukraine's Foreign Minister comments on the carry-on from Rand Paul
#Russia reportedly deporting Ukrainians from the #Ukraine-held parts in Luhansk oblast to the Russian-held zones during this Russian assault on Popasna.
Bizarre
Morale might be intangible but that doesn't mean it isn't real

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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 13
One of the defensive responses to #Germany's policy on #Ukraine has been: "Look at how many refugees we have taken". God bless those who shelter refugees. The problem with this as a policy metric, though, is that it doesn't register success, but very nearly the opposite.
Should say: in conversation with someone from #Britain, this is usually a not-so-subtle counter-attack on our policy in this area, and there is a point. But it doesn't alter the fact: taking refugees from #Ukraine is not a measure of how this is going.
Taking in refugees is something that has to be done when a country has been devastated - or during the process of that happening. Most people who flee would like to go home; many #Syrians certainly would, and the fact so many cannot is a measure of our failure since 2011.
Read 5 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 12
Protais Mpiranya, the most-wanted war criminal in Africa, leader of #Rwanda's presidential guard during the genocide, has been found, buried in Zimbabwe under a false name. He has been there since 2006 courtesy of a tuberculosis-induced heart attack. ft.com/content/1cbe90…
Protais Mpiranya fled into Cameroon and then the Congo, where he fought against Kagame's Rwanda after it invaded in 1996 to uproot the genocidaire encampments like Goma, and fought under Mugabe's sponsorship during the African World War (1998-2003).
With Mpiranya's death confirmed, there are now five of #Rwanda's genocidaires who are wanted by the UN Tribunal, though their prosecutions would take place in Rwanda itself:

1) Fulgence Kayishema, a Judicial Police Inspector from Kibuye
Read 6 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 12
Thread: 12 May 2022: Day 78 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz knows from experience of living in a country ravaged by #Russia that #Ukraine will have to deal with scattered unexploded munitions for a long time, and his message on stopping the evasion of the sanctions is good, too.
#Finland's President and Prime Minister sign a joint statement: "Finland must apply for #NATO membership without delay"
Read 30 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 11
Thread: 11 May 2022: Day 77 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Croatia alarmed by #Hungary's irredentist noises. Have been similar problems with #Ukraine.
The equivalent of the whole population of Estonia has been deported from Ukraine to Russia.
Read 34 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 10
Thread: 10 May 2022: Day 76 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Grim that #Russia's messaging has such a hold over the émigrés, who do not have to make the horrible calculations those inside the country do about personal safety when deciding how far they will or won't deviate from the state narrative.
#US on the electronic warfare capacities it has supplied to #Ukraine
Read 27 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 4
Thread: 4 May 2022: Day 70 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Belarus is to stage a "combat-readiness check" with its whole army, though assures one and all they mean no harm, despite the state being virtually annexed by #Russia several months ago and being the launchpad for the attack on #Ukraine's capital
#Russia even seems to have alienated "brotherly" #Serbia
Read 43 tweets

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