Thread by @ZimermanErik

Being a slow news day as far as info from the critical fronts, want to discuss an event from some days back. #Ukrainian sources released this drone video, claiming it shows a #Russian helicopter being destroyed on #SnakeIsland. Have wanted to discuss since I became aware of it on

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1523078948514861058

May 8. For ~1 week, UA forces targeted #SnakeIsland (or nicer, Serpent Island, of ancient #Achilles lore) with a puzzling amount of air assets. As I reported then, it seemed evident that #Ukraine aimed to recapture the island as a PR coup. The island is also strategic as an AA

asset, has legal territorial ramifications, and is potentially important long term for commercial traffic control of the black sea including #Ukraine's vital exports of grains & wheat. The #Russian MoD later claimed there was such an assault & that significant air & other assets

(Su-24s, Su-27s, multiple drones, Mi-8 helicopters, a ship etc) were destroyed. #Ukraine did not report the assault & so world media has ignored it. As far as mainstream reporting goes, UA successfully bombed the island & destroyed Black Fleet ships, but did not try to take it.

In fact, since the reporting on the successful bombing of the island was of such magnitude, many observers now concluded the island was unoccupied & in limbo, and Ukraine would now easily occupy it if it wanted to. I reported differently as you can see and noted that it remained

in Russian hands. Also noted it would likely now be reinforced by Russia including more AA assets. As part of this #Ukrainian PR around what likely was a failed assault, the posted video was released. If true, it reinforced the idea that the island was no longer occupied by RU

forces, or by very weak struggling ones, and urgent reinforcement was sent by air which the UA forces destroyed. Even some pro-Russian sources, in the interest of being accurate, admitted that it must truly show a destroyed Russian helicopter.

Though of course this is possible, I remained skeptical of the #Ukrainian claim. I did not want to report on this until I could make a more definite determination. However this has not yet been possible. If & when we see images of fallen UA soldiers on the island, that

will at least help confirm that in fact the failed UA assault did take place, even if it does not automatically confirm that this helicopter was not Russian. In any event, in this post I will not go into a deep dive about the facts in & around the video but summarize the issues.

The video was released after the RU MoD claimed it had destroyed UA Mi-8 helicopters with airborne troops assaulting the island. Clearly the video shows troops exiting the craft as in an assault operation in enemy territory. They spread in an arc around the helicopter & assume

firing positions. Another 3 soldiers are seen unloading equipment/ammunition. This would be unusual (though not impossible) if it was RU forces landing in a RU held island. The helicopter avoids the helipad & all the island's structures (where the supplies are first needed).

This location makes sense for an assault, especially one coming from the #Ukrainian coast - it went around the south of the island but not so much so that it would expose itself to the Russian (eastern) flank. The soldiers from here could be expected to advance on the built up

positions. If this was Russian resupply or reinforcement, this would be a strange location to land in and a strange way to disembark. Finally, an Mi-8 full of RU troops would be odd in and of itself. If it was taking off and returning to #Crimea it would be out of range.

If landing to refuel at the island then the behavior seems stranger yet. If using Black Sea fleet assets to take off or land in it is possible but also strange. The RU navy does not use Mi-8 helicopters. It is possible for one to land on a ship in any event but unlikely.

Perhaps most importantly, #Russia could and would reinforce the island by sea. It even captured the island by sea-borne assault, no reason to use air-borne assault to resupply it once captured. For #Ukraine however, which does not control the sea, but has shown a tendency to use

its Mi-8 pilots daringly (if not recklessly) including landing in the middle of sieged #Azovstal, it would make sense to use the Mi-8, well within range from the #Odessa coastline. So all evidence points to a destroyed UA helicopter & failed assault on the island. Only 1 issue:

This video is taken by Ukrainian drone and released by Ukraine. Though they have show themselves to be capable (if not excellent!) propagandists and willing to use all means necessary in information warfare to achieve their aims, I thought this a bit much. The drone of course

could be filming their own assault, that would be normal enough. Once it failed, would they be capable of, having noticed that observing a target looks like targeting it, deciding to release the footage of their own soldiers getting killed & release it as them being their foes?

That is the question. Perhaps the answer is obvious enough, and of course they would... they see this is a total war and are willing to do anything it takes to win. They may in fact think that using the footage of their fallen comrades this way, allows them to help their country

further even after death. This requires a military mindset very different than the one I am accustomed to so I still find it difficult to believe. If Russia released further evidence (such as the bodies), this may help us be more certain of the truth. But as it stands now, we are

left with two very unlikely scenarios, one of which is almost certainly true. Either that helicopter was carrying Russian soldiers, & it was destroyed by UA (forgot 1 more point, notice the munition is far too strong to be from a UA drone such as a bayraktar), or carrying

#Ukrainian soldiers & destroyed by RU forces (more likely up to here), & then its footage was released by #Ukraine as disinformation which included identifying their fighting comrades as enemies (shocking to me).

Which was it?