Thread by @ZimermanErik

Update. After an operational pause to regroup and resupply after a massive artillery expenditure, #Russian forces continue their advance on the #Lysychansk cauldron. The series of events on #SiverskyiDonets crossings is complex & still unclear. Starting with the bridge revealed

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1525151535361150982

revealed by #CNN (which I geolocated upon release) UA forces had success destroying several RU pontoon bridges. The latest video they released however, which was meant to show a RU vehicle drowning in the river, showed a third bridge still standing. Reports were received of the

forces that had crossed near Bilohorivka moving northeast towards Pryvillia. UA forces can still not move near the bank in many locations, though a couple of images were released of a UA reporter at the southern extreme of Bilohorivka where UA still hold the high ground.

The advance from the south in the #Popasna area is much clearer. RU forces are passed Oleksandropillia & the Viktorivka area along the main road. Fighting is now at the critical hub of #Vrubivka. RU forces are also likely to advance along the railway towards Berestove to cut off

the T1302 highway which is the Bakhmut - Lysychansk road. Shelling has resumed in the north in the critical junction areas of Siversk and near Zolotarivka & Topolivka. Other forces advancing from the east, likely including #Chechen forces which recently finished clearing #Nyzhnie

are advancing westward to cut off the T103 road to Lysychansk & Severodonetsk. Additional forces continue to advance on Zolote from Berezivske / Holubivka. Referring to the first thread image RU forces are poised to soon control both junctions in red. Taking either the green &/or

both blue circled junctions would cut off the Lysychansk cauldron and connected salients. However, even seizing the 2 former (red) & cutting off the T1302 road which can all be done from the #Popasna front, would severely cut off the salient as the northern supply routes through

Siversk are within artillery range of the northern RU forces, even if from the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets. #Ukrainian forces made a very large effort to stop RU advance from the north & across the river. However, in doing so they have allowed an easy advance from

#Popasna & the south, where no large river crossing is needed at all & the Russian supply lines are easy to extend, with Popasna itself being an important rail hub. #Ukrainian forces had to either stop both pincers, or outmaneuver them. For example letting one seemingly advance

only to find itself isolated & cut off. This was possible by allowing the RU forces a narrow corridor of advance along a chosen route, where concentrated forces could spring the ambush.

We have not seen #Ukrainian field forces capable of such maneuvers yet, and they have not shown them here either, rather epitomizing what Frederik the Great meant, when he told us that he who defends everything defends nothing.

#RussiaUkraineWar