Thread by @jseldin

Current state of the #Taliban

Taliban has consolidated control over #Afghanistan, per @UN report released on Friday

41 UN sanctioned individuals are in the cabinet & sr level positions

#Taliban "have favored loyalty & seniority over competence, & their decision-making has been opaque & inconsistent" per @UN report

"Various Taliban factions are maneuvering for advantage, with the #Haqqani Network the most successful & influential among them"

Some fissures may be emerging within the #Taliban

"The pro-Pashtun bias evident in the composition of the de facto authorities & poor treatment of #Tajik & #Uzbek Taliban runs the risk of provoking defections from those quarters" per @UN member state intel

Following clashes btw #Taliban #Haqqani Network forces & #Uzbek Taliban, "a number of Uzbek fighters" joined #ISIS-#Khorasan, per @UN report

#Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada thought to be in #Kandahar

"Outsiders’ access to the Taliban leader is limited, & Hibatullah himself has reportedly been less open to deliberation w/other Taliban leaders, w/whom he previously held regular consultations" per @UN report

#Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada "is said to have become more autocratic and dismissive of dissent" per @UN report

He remains in contact w/Mullah Yaqub, Sirajuddin Haqqani & Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar

#Taliban, Hibatullah taking more measures to conceal his location, inclu "minimized mobile telephone use, limited personal engagements and communications to and from the leader conducted mainly by remote courier and hand-written messages" per @UN report

More: #Taliban leader Hibatullah's authoritarianism "evident w/regard to key governance issues, such as the recent statement on girls’ education" per @UN "Taliban ministers & deputy ministers have the authority to rule on issues that are less controversial"

Ascendancy of #Haqqani Network in #Afghanistan

Per @UN report, they control interior, intelligence, passports & migration ministries

Haqqani Ntwk "has also become the best militarily equipped faction &controls a number of armed formations inclu. the elite Badri 313 Battalion"

"The #Haqqani Network now largely controls security in #Afghanistan, including the security of the capital, #Kabul" per @UN report

"The #Haqqani Network’s securing of key positions increases its capability to work wi/the foreign terrorist groups that are its traditional allies" warns @UN report

"Several Member States have expressed concern at the Haqqanis’ control over the issuing of identity papers"

#Haqqani Network "still regarded as having the closest links to #alQaida" per @UN report

"The group continues to be the trusted partner for local facilitation of safe havens and support for alQaida core..."

#Haqqani Network - #ISIS-Khorasan

Links exist "at the local, lower levels" per @UN report, but following the #Taliban takeover in August 2021 it was "not in the interest of the Haqqanis to nurture such linkages"

The current #Taliban military - per @UN intel, Taliban defense officials are seeking a total force of btw 300,000-350,000

7,000 recruits have completed training

Previous estimates put the total Taliban fighting force at 58,000-100,00

Some @UN member state intel finds #Taliban have created 3 special forces battalions to confront #ISIS-K:

Badri 313 Battalion-up to 700 fighters
Fateh Force- up to 1,000 fighters
Umari Force- # of fighters unknown

#Taliban airforce - @UN member state intel finds Taliban have 40 operational aircraft, inlcu. 2 Mi-17 helicopters, 2 BlackHawk helicopters, 2 Cayuse light helicopters, 2 Mi-24 helicopter gunships & 1 transport plane