Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jun 17 32 tweets 20 min read
Thread: 17 June 2022: Day 114 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Australia's new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he is considering accepting the invitation of #Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to visit Kiev during his upcoming European trip to the #NATO meeting in Spain on 29 June. apnews.com/article/russia…
#France's President Macron generally shifted his rhetoric over #Ukraine during his visit to Kiev with President Zelensky, but at the end shifts right back to where he was.
A third #American is missing in #Ukraine. Two of them are known to have been captured by #Russia.
MUCH better from the #US on the role #China is playing in #Russia's assault on #Ukraine: "We hear from the PRC a stance of stated ... neutrality ... [but] China is still choosing to stand by Russia".
#Ukraine's Navy says it struck a #Russian ship that is part of the Black Sea Fleet, the "Vasily Bekh", as it moved ammunition, weapons, and soldiers to Snake Island.
#Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov starts the day by torturing the language
The Biden administration rejects the reports that they are worrying the sanctions on #Russia's government are contributing to the global food crisis the Russians have caused by trying to eradicate #Ukraine.
Michigan Congresswoman supports escorts to break the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine.
Video of the #Ukrainian hit on the #Russian ship trying to resupply Snake Island earlier today
#Russia's losses overall have been staggering, something between a fifth and a third of the troops deployed in #Ukraine, but the losses among Russia's senior officers are perhaps even more notable, if only for highlighting the army's structural weaknesses.
It is interesting that some external analysts have said #Ukraine is not losing as many men each day as Kiev says, and that the artillery already delivered is having a larger impact. The assumption has to be this is political messaging aimed at the West.
If this is true, it would mean #Ukraine had staked its existence on the assumption that the best way to appeal to the West is to appear as weak as possible - which would seem to be data point in favour of @holland_tom's thesis.
Gazprom's "nationalisation" is often perceived by Russians as an example of Putin making Russia great again, but as Navalny and other Russian investigative journalists show, the money goes to Putin personally and the intelligence officers around him. themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/16/why…
As so often, the threat and exploitation Russia's government imposes on foreigners - in this case, by using Gazprom against them - is also imposed on Russians.
Meduza argued that Azot in Severdonetsk is not quite the same as Azovstal in Mariupol: it is almost twice the size, making it more difficult to defend and the bomb shelters are less durable, but on the other hand Azot is not (yet) completely surrounded meduza.io/en/feature/202…
Three analysts - @TobiasBunde @SophiaBesch @MollingDGAP - look at why #Germany's military is so weak. Consensus that Berlin simply has not believed since the end of the Cold War that force has a serious role in geopolitics. thehundred.substack.com/p/why-is-germa… v @marceldirsus
Putin in the midst of an "extremely important speech at @SPIEF
Surprise visit from #Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson to #Ukraine to meet President Zelensky
Boris' visit to meet Zelensky seems to have unhinged most of Twitter. Even US liberals and EU loyalists who have been sober about Ukraine, and acknowledged the positive role Britain has played, just don't seem to be able to take this one; have spun off into all kinds of crazy.
#Ukraine's Prime Minister announces the final severing of ties with #Russia, whose citizens have now been barred from visa-free travel
Perhaps more alarming even than the content is the fact that Putin was still talking at this time, an absurdly prolonged speech
Pictures released by #Ukraine's President Zelensky of his meeting in Kiev with #Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
#pt More pictures released by #Ukraine's President Zelensky of his meeting in Kiev with #Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Doubtless, the Ukrainians will think this is an excellent idea
After Britain sanctions the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Vladimir Solovyov, who is Jewish, rants against Protestantism, says Britain "betrayed" Christianity under Henry VIII, is persecuting the "holiest Patriarch", and @trussliz will go to hell.
#Russia trying to use Gazprom (again) against #Europe. Is going to cause a problem for #Germany, certainly in the short-term. Unclear the Russians benefit in the long-term from forcing energy decoupling.
The #Taliban delegate to @SPIEF nodded off during #Putin's Castro-length speech.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jun 18
#Britain: Ahmiri Azizi, 24, an asylum seeker from Iran living in Sheffield, a supporter of #IS, has been charged with seven counts of sharing terrorist material from June-November 2021, inc. one after the Liverpool women's hospital attack in Nov. 2021. examinerlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-…
A co-defendant alongside Azizi is Mohammed Hussini, also an #IS supporter, who has also been charged with four counts of disseminating terrorist material on Telegram between August and November 2021.
Interestingly, "Azizi's defence is that his phone was hacked by or on behalf of the Iranian government. John Jones QC, defending, said that Azizi supports Kurdistan becoming an independent nation and was an opponent to Iran and IS."
Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
Thread: 18 June 2022: Day 115 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia has renewed its offensive around Izyum to try to encircle Severodonetsk

- Russian declared "humanitarian corridors" are likely to "manipulate the battlespace" as seen in Syria, and civilians trapped in Severodonetsk see them this way. Image
Interesting thread. The public messaging of #Russia and #China has become more overtly hostile to the #US-led world order; no reason to think the leaderships are not being honest about their views. Notable both see the collapse of the USSR as key.
Read 20 tweets
Jun 16
Thread: 16 June 2022: Day 113 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Every bloody time. This one with the Harpoons is among the worst since the breaking of #Russia's naval blockade is an immediate problem for us all, not just #Ukraine. Really not sure we have the time for this roundabout method.
Let's hope this is right with the HIMARS. Should have been done a while ago, but ...
Read 49 tweets
Jun 11
Thread: 11 June 2022: Day 108 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is struggling to advance into the south of Severodonetsk city, despite concentrating artillery and air power on it

- Russia has resorted to unguided missiles because it is running short of precision weapons. #Ukraine's air defences holding.
#Russia is firing up to 50,000 artillery rounds per day and doing better at combined arms warfare. #Ukraine is running very low on ammunition for its Soviet-era weapons systems and Western weapons supplies are too slow and meagre to cover the gap. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
Read 8 tweets
Jun 10
Thread: 10 June 2022: Day 107 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is again in control of "most" of Severodonetsk city in the Luhansk Oblast, but has failed to encircle the wider area

- Russia is failing to impose order or provide even basic services in occupied zones of #Ukraine, signs of a cholera outbreak
Read 14 tweets
Jun 10
Review of Antony Beevor's new book about the Russian Civil War, says he leaves ideology out as a factor in explaining the cruelty of the war. It's the myth that will never die though to say the the "Whites' ideology" was "ferociously ... antisemitic". newstatesman.com/culture/books/…
There were nominal "White" units, especially in Ukraine, who carried out terrible pogroms in 1919. They did so in defiance of the "White" high command, which repeatedly condemned such behaviour and ordered the protection of Jews.
The problem for the "Whites" on this, as on so much else, was that it was not a unified army in a conventional sense, but a loose movement bound by anti-Bolshevism.
Read 4 tweets

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