Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread: Will the weather support Biden or Putin?

1- Two factors will determine the future of Presidents Biden & Putin: Global economic growth & Weather.

A recession is bad for both Biden & Putin.

A #recession might change the balance of power in the forthcoming US election

2- A recession is not good for Putin: It would reduce the demand for oil & natural gas & allow the EU to rebuild its inventories. It would also lower energy prices, which reduces Putin’s bargaining power. A recession would reduce the cost of building regasification terminals.

3- A recession might help Putin if it leads to increased public anger in Europe and change in governments. After all, Putin's objective is t break the EU and force some of them to deal with him covertly or overtly. Just look at the events in the Netherlands now.

4- But the weather might play a bigger role than the economy. The weather might force some EU members to abandon EU sanctions on Russia & ignore President Biden's pressure. The weather might help Putin achieve his objective of breaking the EU. The scenario below is not farfetched

5- A severe heat wave sweeps through Europe, Southeast Asia & MENA. It will cause a stifling energy crisis that will push some European governments to cooperate with Russia in one way or another. This will be a major political blow to Biden just before the mid-term elections.

6- President Biden understands this idea. His goal is to provide oil & gas to EU at all costs, even if it is at the expense of the American people and American principles regarding human rights and environmental protection.

7- A severe heat wave in Europe increases the demand for cooling, which increases the demand for electricity. More energy sources are needed: gas, coal & renewable energy. The problem is that the temperature is high because there is NO WIND. How to compensate? At what price?

8- Where will the additional gas come from as inventories decline? Russia is reducing supplies. Norway is experiencing technical problems. UK said it will not pump gas to the EU if it needs the gas. Algeria threatened Europe that it will not pump gas unless pricing is reviewed

9- All of this while Freeport will not be able to export LNG for months while 21 hurricanes are expected in the Gulf of Mexico, 5 of them are severe. Hurricanes will reduce LNG shipments to EU, even if severe hurricanes do not cause any damage and power supplies are not affected.

10- Where will the natural gas come from? Hot weather in North America will increase the demand for natural gas & might make the hurricane season more severe. A decrease in supplies of natural gas, while demand is increasing, means less gas is available for LNG & at higher prices

11- The situation will get worse if a heat wave causes major power outages in #Texas ad Louisiana. A combination of a heat wave, power outages ad higher natural gas prices might force some politicians to call for a limit on #LNG exports. What will European countries do then?

12- Rising temperatures in July & August in Asia, especially in China & India, will increase competition between Europe & Asia for LNG, coal & possibly oil. Prices of liquefied gas in the spot markets may rise to record levels exceeding $45. What will Europe do? #Russia #LNG

13- Rising LNG prices will force Asian countries to switch back to coal and oil & their prices will rise. Power outages may become common. This, in turn, will increase the demand for private generation and will increase the demand for diesel and LPG, and raise their prices

14- Between Europe & Asia we have the oil & gas producing countries in MENA. A heat wave in the region means that more oil & gas are used, leading to lower exports to Europe & Asia.

The inevitable result of this is the fall of the EU into a major predicament. #Oil #OOTT #Natgas

15- The hotter the weather gets, the more likely the EU will be divided over Russia. The division of the European Union is a disaster for President Biden before the US elections.

However, all of the above is not the worst-case scenario! 😯

16- The worst-case scenario is the occurrence of what was mentioned above, followed by an early and severe winter! Then we might see an energy crisis turn into a disaster before our eyes! All of this and the assumption is that Russia will continue to supply Europe with some gas!

17- What if we have a hot summer that increases the demand for energy sources and raises their prices while the global economy suffers from a recession?

The energy crisis will be lighter, but governments will be in political limbo due to stagflation!

18- What if we end up with mild summer in the regions mentioned above and a weak hurricane season in GoM?
Putin loses, Biden wins: the EU will remain unified against #Russia

What about a mild summer, a weak hurricane season, and a recession? #Hurricanes #Weather

19- A recession & mild summer are enough to loosen the energy crisis, increase inventories, & lower energy prices. Rising inventories might affect the balances of energy markets in the first half of 2023 negatively and might force OPEC + to return to production cuts #OPEC #COM

20- Conclusion: Weather will determine the unity of the EU toward #Russia. If #Putin achieves his plan and divides the EU, it will be a disaster for President #Biden & the Democrats, not only in the mid-term elections but also in the November 2024 elections! #Elections2022