1. EUR dips below Dollar parity for the first time in 20 years
> Ukraine Russia war caused an energy crisis in EU. ECB is trying to curb inflation and cushion a slowing economy where it aims to raise borrowing costs.
(2/9)
> he US #Fed is raising interest rates at an accelerated rate, causing yields on US #Treasury Bonds to surge higher than EU’s debt — driving investors to the dollar and away from euros.
(3/9)
> Weaker currencies used to be welcomed as a means to stimulate economic growth. This is now undesirable due to inflation, making imports expensive. EU #CPI jumped to 8.6% in just a year.
(4/9)
> On a broader level, the #EUR weakness against the #USD helps EU exporters as it makes their products more $ competitive and boosts earnings.
> US account for more than 40% of sales for 70 EU MNCs, including Sanofi and Aegon NV. It also ⬇️ $ cost of tourist going to EU
> The previous #CPI forecast was 8.8%, and the previous quarter’s forecast was at 8.6%.
> Core prices increased by 5.9% in June from 2021.
(6/9)
> The Feds raised its interest rates to temper demand in hopes of curbing #inflation. #CPI is believed to have reached its peak and slower inflation increases can be expected over the longer run compared to recent months.
The #crypto lending platform’s business model became untenable as crypto prices collapsed. They are currently reorganising and restructuring the company. However, only certain customers are allowed withdrawals, on a first to act basis.
(8/9)
4. 🇷🇺 #Russia banned all forms of crypto as a form of payment — #Ruble is the only accepted monetary unit
> #Putin signed a law forbidding the use of #cryptocurrencies or digital assets as forms of payment for goods and services locally.
(9/9)
> The law is expected to be implemented by holding crypto exchanges and businesses liable for infractions. > However, #Russian central bank is considering accepting the use of #crypto for international payments.
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The sentiment shift has started to show under the hood in #crypto options derivatives market as #BTC's 25Δ skew has largely narrowed down in the past few days, indicating more optimism (a major shift compared to a few weeks ago!).
(2/7)
Open interest metrics are also indicating the same sentiment over the weekend, with P/C OI dipping to 0.62 despite the gradual demand for downside puts the week prior.
🎤 Shoutout to @laevitas1 for the charts and graphs
(3/7)
Comparing it against total volume, put volumes have indeed shallowed and P/C volume ratio has declined sharply to 0.79, painting the same less-bearish narrative. 📈
After the June FOMC meeting, Chair #Powell acknowledged tt the Fed's decision to hike 75bps had been influenced by firming of #inflation expectation measures, including ⬆️ in the Fed staff's index of CIE.
Following the recent jump in June's CPI print at 9.1% versus the 8.8% expectation, the market has started to price in a 100bps hike this month. However, since the June #FOMC meeting, inflation expectations have notably softened.
(3/4)
5-10 year #inflation expectations were revised down by 0.2pp in the final June UMich report, and market-based measures of inflation expectations have materially declined.