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Jul 30 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
Thread: 30 July 2022: Day 157 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: likely that #Ukraine has "repelled small scale Russian assaults" around Donetsk city. "Highly likely" that #Russia has "established two pontoon bridges in Kherson. Russia is tightening control in the occupied zones to prepare for annexation announcement.
Oleksiy Arestovych argues #Russia putting out the video of castrating #Ukrainian soldiers, something known about for a long time, is designed to provoke a reaction, allowing Moscow to argue its a two-sided barbarian war the West must stop with a ceasefire.
Interesting: the public pro-#Russia stance of #African states during Lavrov's recent visit does not accord with policy in all these places, apparently, specifically #Sudan, which is helping weapons transfers to #Ukraine.
Thread continues here
The #US taken in more than 100,000 Ukrainians since #Russia's invasion:
> 47,000+ on temporary or immigrant visas
> Nearly 30,000 under a private sponsorship program
> 22,000+ via the Mexican border
> 500 through the traditional refugee system
cbsnews.com/news/us-admits…
The minimal weapons #Germany has shipped to #Ukraine are already breaking down
#Russians skirting sanctions in inventive ways
Borys Filatov, Mayor of Dnipro, speaks about being the central node for getting weapons to the front in southeast #Ukraine, and the #Russian missile attacks trying to disrupt it. Has a rare public criticism of Zelensky for ignoring the invasion warnings. politico.com/news/2022/07/2…
#pt: Some thought Zelensky's public statements were to avoid panic, but his wife (among others) confirmed that they reflected his true beliefs that an invasion was not imminent. There was little preparation or mobilisation (and the Russians still failed).
#Russia is very pleased with Sabina Higgins, wife of #Ireland's President, who has been advocating for a ceasefire in #Ukraine to freeze in place the gains of Russian aggression so they can recommence the effort for full conquest later. irishtimes.com/politics/2022/…
#Russia's Gazprom Halts Gas Supplies to #Latvia bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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More from @KyleWOrton

Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 31
Thread: 31 July 2022: Day 158 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the de facto annexation of #Belarus by #Russia: notes the missiles fired from Belarus at #Ukraine, the escalating repression, concludes: "likely indicate that [Lukashenko] has become almost wholly dependent on Russia." Image
#Russia's "Wagner" unit is encouraging illegal migration across from #Libya to #Italy. This causes immediate chaos for border authorities and then, when it leads to broader social tensions, the Russians will exploit those, too.
Read 27 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 29
Thread: 29 July 2022: Day 156 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update is on the "Wagner" unit, says its "new level of integration [with the #Russian Army in eastern #Ukraine] further undermines the Russian authorities' long-standing policy of denying links between PMCs and the Russian state". Which is British understatement Image
The #Biden administration continues denying #Ukraine weapons, in this case ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, because of its deranged fear of #Russia "escalating", as if that is an actual Thing at this point.
Read 70 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 28
Thread: 28 July 2022: Day 155 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum", with a bridgehead established south of the Inhulets River. Ukraine has used HIMARS to damage the bridges in and out of Kherson, leading Russia's 49th Army to look "highly vulnerable".
Congress has been briefed that #Russia has suffered 75,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in #Ukraine
Read 36 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 27
Thread: 27 July 2022: Day 154 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia making "tactical advances" around the Vuhlehirska power station in Donetsk. Lavrov in Africa, long an interest of Moscow's, trying to blame the West for the food crisis.

Not happy with Wagner being defined as a "private military company"
#pt: "Wagner" is a unit of the #Russian military under GRU. The purpose of the "private military company" presentation is to make it "deniable" - to minimise the domestic political impact of losses and to distance Moscow internationally from its atrocities foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/wha…
Read 62 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 26
Guess everyone has a breaking point. #Hungary
[1/2] #Ukraine's President Zelensky in his speech tonight noted #Russia's troop losses in his country; lauded the improving relations with Latin America (Chile, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and now Uruguay); and thanked @BorisJohnson for the Churchill Award and #Britain's support.
[2/2] Zelensky: The awards in #Britain and the #Netherlands are a reflection of the changed attitudes toward #Ukraine: "Our bravery is truly an inspiration for all free nations and the community of democracies ... Just imagine how inspiring the Ukrainian victory will be".
Read 19 tweets
Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 26
Was saying to my housemate last night that it is strange that, when it comes to the schism in the British electorate/political class that Brexit exposed so sharply, Truss is on the "Brexit" side of it and Sunak is coded as the "Remainer". But it does make a certain kind of sense.
Brexit-as-policy faded once it was done; we're left now with Brexit-as-symbol, a marker of political instinct/tribe, class, and so on. And in that sense Sunak's libertarian, "Singapore-style" Brexit position is closer to the Remainers.
Who knows what Truss really believes, but in her public life, which is all you can judge a politician by, she accepted the referendum result, has said she was wrong to vote Remain, and worked in government to fulfil the things that most of the Brexiteers wanted.
Read 4 tweets

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