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Aug 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
#Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks. 1/7 criticalthreats.org/analysis/irani…
Iran and its proxies are responding to a growing political crisis in Baghdad that they have also been fueling. IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on July 27 to deescalate tensions but reportedly (and evidently) failed. 2/7
Ghaani likely seeks to achieve at least four objectives in attacking US and partner forces: 3/7
1. Unify #Iranian-backed political parties by rallying them around attacking the US and its partners. 4/7
2. Pressure American political leadership to withdraw US forces from the region. 5/7
3. Contain #Turkey. #Iran has directed a proxy military campaign to contain growing #Turkish economic, political, and security influence in #Iraq since 2021. 6/7
4. Pressure #Sadr to support or at least work with the Coordination Framework against the US or #Turkey. 7/7

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More from @criticalthreats

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Aug 8
#Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupied #Ukrainian territory. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces have likely made incremental gains in settlements on the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of #Donetsk City and continued efforts to break #Ukrainian defensive lines along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact. Image
#Russian forces did not make confirmed ground assaults near #Kharkiv City on August 7. Image
Read 5 tweets
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Aug 6
#Ukrainian officials confirmed that #Russian forces are using #Iranian-provided drones in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces conducted several limited ground assaults to the north, northwest, and southwest of #Donetsk City. Image
#Russian forces continued to focus on preventing #Ukrainian forces from creating conditions to resume a counteroffensive on the #Kharkiv City Axis on August 5. Image
Read 5 tweets
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Aug 5
NEW REPORT | Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState are spreading in #Africa, posing new threats to countries that have either suppressed or not yet experienced significant and sustained jihadist violence, warns @EmilyCEstelle. 1/5 criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-u…
This proliferation and expansion of African Salafi-jihadi groups will fuel regional disorder, humanitarian crises, and a persistent and likely increasing global terror threat. 2/5
Identifying risk factors and tracking them over time can allow analysts to forecast potential Salafi-jihadi insurgencies and better understand the dynamics leading to worst-case security scenarios and the policies that can avert them. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Jul 16
Thread on the CNN reporting that Russia could purchase Shahed-129s and Shahed-191s from Iran. 1/9
These drones are among Iran’s most sophisticated platforms. Both are suited for combat and ISR missions. Iran has used both variants for operations throughout the Syrian civil war. The Shahed-129 and Shahed-191 both require runways to launch. 2/9
The Shahed-129 is a medium-altitude long-endurance drone that is similar to the MQ-1 Predator. Its potential range is 1,700 km, but its reliance on a ground control station could limit the range to 200-400 km. 3/9
criticalthreats.org/analysis/irans…
Read 9 tweets
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Jul 14
The #Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to deploy to #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces continued artillery and air strikes as well as limited ground assaults but failed to gain territory north and east of #Slovyansk on July 13. Image
#Russian forces attempted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of #Kharkiv City. Image
Read 4 tweets
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Jun 10
NEW | #Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to #Russia’s artillery superiority. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within #Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.
#Russian forces continued to prepare for offensive operations from the southeast of #Izyum and west of #Lyman toward #Slovyansk and likely made marginal gains north of Slovyansk on June 10.
Read 5 tweets

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