Thread by @YugoSurfer

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With this thread I want to adress the question, why #Russia is winning, even though she hasn't got the frequently quoted 3:1 advantage in troops. Moreover I want to describe the Russian military strategy a little deeper.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev

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This quote, of course, might be right. I know a few military books, where it is described like this.
But! This quote only applies, when two peer opponents fighting each other with similar quantitative and qualitative resources and possibilities.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev

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#Russia and #Ukraine aren't peer enemies. Considering the land army, they are similar, but Ukraine has a massive disadvantage on the possibility to supply its troops with spare parts and ammunition. Yes, there were storages, but since Russia took out the industrial potential

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to reproduce new supplies, #Russia gained the upper hand here. The #Ukraine|ian airforce was pretty good, quantitative and qualitative. But it fought against the best air defence systems of the world and moreover against one of the best fighters (SU35) of the world.

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So it also was defeated and vanished in the meanwhile (yes, from time to time some slavic nation supplies some soviet planes, that get shot down immediately).
#Ukraine|ian air defenses are very good. There were build up for decades as
#Russia #Kiev #Donbass

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the first line of air defence against #NATO. They are everywhere and they are good. One could argue, that this aspect of the Ukrainian armed forces are the biggest threat for #Russia|n offensive operations. But they get also reduced by the day and will eventually disappear.

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#Ukraine|ian marine? Doesn't exist.
Ukrainian missile forces? Are absolutely obsolete. Not a single Ukrainian missile can penetrate #Russia|n targets, if they are protected. (Not everything can be defended at the same time).
Well, basically we can conclude, that the Ukrainian

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armed forces, and the military industry as well, were defeated months ago. Which keeps the #Ukraine|ians in the game are the massive supplies by the West. The West is paying all the bills, without the Ukrainian people, both civilians and military, would have deserted long ago.

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The West keeps moreover the supplies of ammunition and equipment flowing, to keep the Ukrainians in the game. The problem is, the logistics gets harder to maintain since the Russians keep destroying more and more logistics infrastructure. Which means either less freight

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delivered or more expensive deliveries of the same amount, by more sophisticated transportation routes. This is only one part of the problem. The other part is, that #Ukraine needs more and more different kind of supplies to keep running. In the first months it was only about

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ammunition and weapons. Now #Ukraine needs ever more kinds of spare parts, medical supplies, special equipment, civilian goods, a large portfolio of different weapon systems from different nations and standards with all its needs. In turn it means, logistics gets ever more

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expensive and in the same time the demand for more and more freight is rising by the day, to avoid #Ukraine from simply collapsing.
And winter isn't even here... In winter the demand for energy and supplies will increase even far more... One could argue it will be impossible

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to sustain. We will see.
The key reasons for this quick victory against the Ukrainian army (#Russia is currently fighting a zombie, that is kept alive by The West) are as follows:
- Russias superior missile forces
- Air superiority over the battlefield

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- Worldclass intelligence and reconnaissance of the battlefield
- Ability to manoeuvr the forces "freely" around and stay highly mobile, without being under risk, to be obliterated from the air.
Well, this are the reasons, why #Russia is winning or has won, by an inferior

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attacker/defender quote.
Having said that I want to move to the #Russia|n military strategy.
I want to try to explain it by listing one aspect after another:
- Russia seeks to destroy the enemy army in a armed conflict. Which means in plain English, that she is going to kill

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every able bodied man and women, under arms, that is fighting her. If it means, that the whole able bodied (armed!)population needs to be killed (remember "to the last Ukrainian"), then this will happen, to ensure #Russia's security.
- Russia isn't looking to destroy the

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country and its civilian infrastructure. When the army is dead, then #Russia can take over a more or less (depends on the grade of resistance) running country. Then she has less to pay for reconstruction and/or incorporating it into the federation.
- Russia is a land force.

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Therefore she is attacking the enemy mainly with its highly mobile land forces (tanks, artillery APC's etc.)
- #Russia uses modern missiles for strikes at the enemy military infrastructure in the rear and the hinterland, to cripple its army at the frontline, by cutting off

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supply with troops and equipment.
- #Russia is destroying as much logistics infrastructure as possible, without putting its own advance into harm. Many bridges and train infrastructure will be needed for the advancing Russian army.
- Russia is invading at a large frontline

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with the goal, to shape the battlefield. She will then test weak and hard spots and define vectors for offensive operations. At other strategic points she will pin large enemy formations with small own forces.
- #Russia has several main offensive vectors, where she can

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escalate and deescalate as the situation requires.
- #Russia is deciding, where the fight is being carried out. Where she ammase its offensive capabilities, especially numerous artillery forces and starts with the artillery strikes, there the fight will be carried out.

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The enemy can try now to shift its forces, under heavy air threat, from one theatre to another to support attacked troops. But since the enemy has no air cover, it is exposed to reconnaissance and constant missile, air or artillery strikes and eventually annihilation.

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- While #Russia can shift its forces as she wants, and resupply it almost indefinitely, the enemy can move its forces only by night or with huge deception efforts.
- The enemy is denied any offensive operation. Every detected offensive concentrations are being attacked

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and destroyed (missiles/artillery) before they can launch it.
-In other words, #Russia is deciding, where and when the fights are being carried out. She looks to concentrate huge enemy formations and troops at a favorable position for its artillery and then starts the fight.

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The enemy is mostly destroyed in its trenches, before even seeing a #Russia|n soldier.
- Russia is also killing enemy troop concentrations all across the country, with missiles. For example reserve formations, troops and units, that are just being mobilised.

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We understand now, that there is absolutely no need for #Russia to rush. #Ukraine is feeding the Russian military doctrine with fresh meat every day. And the day will come, when this will become unsustainable for the Ukrainians. The collapse.
#Donbass #Kiev #NATO #EU