Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 5 15 tweets 12 min read
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
#Australia: Peter Seaton is unrepentant over his grim pro-Putin propaganda mural in Melbourne. Nonetheless, it is at least being removed.
Regrettably, the libertarians are at it again: looking at #Russia's attempt to eradicate #Ukraine, it is the (Jewish) President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, they feel resembles Hitler. If these people ever came to power, they would kill us all. ImageImage
#Germany's public broadcaster @ZDF takes note of #NAFO shutting down #Russia's online propaganda efforts, the relentless harrowing of Mikhail Ulyanov, and @oleksiireznikov joining the Fellas. Misses NAFO's material contributions to #Ukraine, though. zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
Ségolène Royal, a socialist politician in #France and former Minister, who has four children with former President Francois Hollande, wants to give #Putin another chance and worries about propaganda and war crimes by #Ukraine.
"#Japan's Defense Ministry says six vessels from the #Russian and #Chinese navies fired machine guns in the Sea of Japan. It suspects the act to be part of major Russian military drills." www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
The scale of the voluntary efforts from Western populations to help Ukraine have been quite something.
If you are able to help, here's a thread with places you can donate to in #Ukraine: everything from military vehicles and drones for the frontlines to medical equipment for the strained field hospitals and even animal shelters.
#Ukraine proposes #Australia use its army as a "guinea pig" for, e.g. the "Hawkeis" military vehicles. The idea is pitched as a "win-win": helps the Ukrainians resist the #Russian assault and tests out Aussie gear before it is integrated into the ADF. smh.com.au/politics/feder…
#Afghanistan: A suicide bomber, almost certainly #ISKP, was apparently shot dead by the #Taliban's security forces in Kabul, but the bullets detonated his vest and the explosion killed at least two staff at #Russia's Embassy. bbc.com/news/world-asi…
Goodness. #Russia now recruiting from mental hospitals. Shows the terrible issues Moscow is having with manpower, and doesn't suggest that capability and discipline are going to be much improved.
#Russia's agents signal what everybody knew: the "referendums" to annex the occupied zones in #Ukraine are coming up soon.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 4
Thread: 4 September 2022: Day 193 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to suffer "combat fatigue and high casualties" in #Ukraine, leading to low morale and "discipline issues". Problems with pay is a big issue for the Russian Army, as well as lacking basics like food, arms, and even uniforms.
Great map by @bradyafr of #Ukraine's use of HIMARS to ravage #Russia's logistics system.
Read 28 tweets
Sep 3
Thread: 3 September 2022: Day 192 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine's "offensive operations" around #Russian-occupied Kherson advance "on a broad front". The operation has "limited immediate objectives", but exploits Russia's weaknesses, and forces Moscow into a choice over deployment of its stretched forces.
Essentially an "Honest Trailers" version of a Russian recruitment video.
Read 36 tweets
Sep 3
Very interesting: Photograph surfaces from #Iran showing three of #Al_Qaeda's most important leaders: Sayf al-Adel, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and Abu al-Khayr al-Masri. Picture must be from before 2015, when Abu al-Khayr left for Syria. Doesn't look much like house arrest, does it? ImageImage
#pt: From 2018: "Examining Iran's Long Relationship with Al-Qaeda" kyleorton.co.uk/2018/10/26/exa…
#pt: #Al_Qaeda leader Abdullah Rajab Abdurrahman (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri) allegedly worked on fissile material while he was in #Iran. After Abu al-Khayr left in 2015, he went to #Syria, where, in 2017, he became the first kill of the US R9X ("ninja bomb"). kyleorton.co.uk/2017/02/27/al-…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22
Thread: 22 August 2022: Day 180 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the problems #Russia is having mobilising and motivating its "auxiliary forces", i.e. the #Ukrainians in the occupied territories like the Donbas. Moscow is trying terror and inducement (money), but the forces remain unreliable for offensives.
Thread on the "Wagner" unit, an instrument of #Russia's state, often wrongly referred to as a "mercenary" outfit.
Read 36 tweets
Aug 21
Thread: 21 August 2022: Day 179 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
To follow up on the assassination of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter last night: the balance of probability for an assassination in Moscow is always the Russian FSB, possibly with the involvement of organised crime, not the Ukrainian SBU.
#pt: It is not *impossible* to construct a motive for the Ukrainian SBU trying to assassinate Dugin, but the SBU knows what apparently most Westerners do not: that Dugin is not a domestic power player, politically or ideologically, in the Kremlin.
Read 20 tweets
Aug 20
Thread: 20 August 2022: Day 178 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "only minimal changes" along the front line in the Donbas over "the last week", after some minor #Russian advances in early August. #Ukraine moving on Kherson, increasingly frequent strikes behind the lines in the south are "stressing Russian logistics".
Credit to #France's President Macron for this: strongly preparing the French population for a rough winter, necessary to defend their security and values.
Read 38 tweets

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