Thread by @gbponz

The #Italy angle: (/) (H/t @Danjsalt)
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https://twitter.com/TonyDowson5/status/1569149998851317761

While pollsters and pundits gave an advantage to the center-left sitting government in #Sweden's elections, results have edged to the right, irrespective of the final count. This is not a surprise to an Italian, but frankly it should surprise no one. aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/12… (/)

Here in #Italy there has always been a "skew" between polls and actual results, quite understandable in a country where the main stream media are firmly in the hands of the left wing establishment: there is actually a channel which was built to order by State television, Rai3.(/)

But, with the combination of righteous indignation and societal pressure the elites have heaped on the weary population, my hunch is that we have become more and more like former Eastern bloc countries: those holding different opinion tend to keep them close to the chest. (/)

This has an impact on what expectations should be on the Italian general election coming on September 25th: the obvious one is that polls probably underestimate #Meloni, but the unseen one is that apart from "targeted ads", higher attendance may mean a bigger effect.(/)

#PD has made "targeted ads" trying to get the youngest to the polls since they are more likely to vote for them, but speaking generally, don't be surprised if expected attendance goes up, PD falls UNDER 20% in the general vote. That would have other consequences: (/)

1. Given that #M5S is given as comfortably over 10%, and #Lega is given as eking out a 10%+ (but I wouldn't dismiss the notion of them wresting a sub 10% poll), it would become a "much of a muchness" race in the left. That would help #Renzi and #Calenda later on.(/)

That would give a rational explanation to the boisterous and ridicolous graph posted by them, projecting the chance of double digit results: they will do much less (possibly half that), but it's positioning for the Royal Rumble afterwards: (/)

Namely, the "Establishment" might reposition, giving equal opportunity to any position on the left. Interesting times indeed.

NOTE: #Salvini's #Lega is a left wing party. deal with it.
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update: reuters.com/world/europe/s…