While pollsters and pundits gave an advantage to the center-left sitting government in #Sweden's elections, results have edged to the right, irrespective of the final count. This is not a surprise to an Italian, but frankly it should surprise no one. aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/12… (/)
Here in #Italy there has always been a "skew" between polls and actual results, quite understandable in a country where the main stream media are firmly in the hands of the left wing establishment: there is actually a channel which was built to order by State television, Rai3.(/)
But, with the combination of righteous indignation and societal pressure the elites have heaped on the weary population, my hunch is that we have become more and more like former Eastern bloc countries: those holding different opinion tend to keep them close to the chest. (/)
This has an impact on what expectations should be on the Italian general election coming on September 25th: the obvious one is that polls probably underestimate #Meloni, but the unseen one is that apart from "targeted ads", higher attendance may mean a bigger effect.(/)
#PD has made "targeted ads" trying to get the youngest to the polls since they are more likely to vote for them, but speaking generally, don't be surprised if expected attendance goes up, PD falls UNDER 20% in the general vote. That would have other consequences: (/)
1. Given that #M5S is given as comfortably over 10%, and #Lega is given as eking out a 10%+ (but I wouldn't dismiss the notion of them wresting a sub 10% poll), it would become a "much of a muchness" race in the left. That would help #Renzi and #Calenda later on.(/)
That would give a rational explanation to the boisterous and ridicolous graph posted by them, projecting the chance of double digit results: they will do much less (possibly half that), but it's positioning for the Royal Rumble afterwards: (/)
Namely, the "Establishment" might reposition, giving equal opportunity to any position on the left. Interesting times indeed.

NOTE: #Salvini's #Lega is a left wing party. deal with it.
@LorenaLuVi @petunianelsole @Curini @ardigiorgio @ricpuglisi

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More from @gbponz

Sep 11
Yet, there are TWO wars. One, is in #Ukraine, and Ukraine has consistently "punched above its weight". One is in #Europe, where the main Russian weapon has been #Germany./ @Halsrethink @TomekDeptuch @RobertMCutler @pietercleppe @nglinsman @pmakela1 @ResearchRonin @BaldingsWorld
While there are undoubted successes on the ground in #Ukraine, #Russia is still playing its card much better on #Europe. Keeping tensions high about #ZaporizhzhiaNuclearPowerPlant played into keeping #Germany from restarting its #NuclearPower plants.(/)
That keeps #Nordstream1 and 2 on the table, and renewables going for Russia (#RenewableEnergy is 2/3 gas, 1/3 whatever solar or wind you deploy). Even with a diversification of sources, Renewable fans won't drill domestically and two more years of #Biden will help. (/)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
for personal reasons, I was checking on an interesting site maintained by the #EU:single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/single-market/…
Apparently, there has been a drive to make it simple to register for business in any EU country. But check what I wrote against the official wording: (/)
"register for business" is different from "Starting a business". One thing is getting a VAT number, a local tax code and provide an address. Actually STARTING a business, and I have been involved in that, it's a different kettle of fish. But, out of curiosity, I checked. (/)
Read 5 tweets
Sep 9
Well... that requires a clarification. Lest people think the #German government hadn't spent two decades working on the country's demise.(/) @Halsrethink @ektrit @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Ed___________0 @petunianelsole @LorenaLuVi @andrepaltry @AlessandroPonz4 @eshow1969
"Competitive advantage" comes from "Competition", i.e. trying to be on average better or at least adequate in a game where may players are involved and where everyone sees everyone else. Think "bicycle race". (/)
But it is not enough to be adequate on a STATIC framework: there are ups and downs, hills and turns. So there is an element of foresight and tradeoffs needed. Time lags are also EXTREMELY important. Look up #OODA Loop for reference. (/)
Read 8 tweets
Feb 12
The weapon the three Police officers in the back hold is probably a Milkor grenade launcher, six round capacity, 40mm grenades. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milkor_MGL @eshow1969 @RebelNewsOnline @FoxNews (/)
Those can use crowd control rounds, like "bean bags", rubber balls, or sponge. Yet, even given the reduces charge of those rounds, those policemen have been incorrectly deployed (/)
In order to use them properly without risking undue harm to the targeted crowd, they would have to fall back SIGNIFICANTLY. And I know from personal experience how hard it is to do that when push comes to shove.(/)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
They are trying to build ONE plant, which is way over budget and behind schedule (Flamanville);
They "persuaded" #GE to sell back to a French company a plant which builds the steam turbine component. (/)
That technology has nothing to do with the ability to build #NUCLEAR plants, that component might as well be part of a coal based generator. Yet, the media sold that news as relevant.
Nothing has been done in order to make the bureaucratic/approval process more streamlined.(/)
While the official Macron plan allegedly is to build six more similar EPR 2 plants, with an option on 12 more, no news has been aired about starting an "assembly line" process where expertise will be maintained, at the project/approval/assembly level.(/)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
Their only hope to have it fail spontaneously would be that.
Incidentally, one of my "pregnancy tests" of men and ideas is "would this happen without coercion, and if so, what would it take?" (/)
@chigrl @nglinsman @RobertMCutler @BaldingsWorld @DukeMarcude
That gives a clearer perspective, imho. On #Canada, the point now is NOT vaccinations. If vaccines don't work with rates over 85%, they never reliably will. Also, no one asks how many protesters ARE vaccinated. But authorities avoid checking that like the plague(/)
For them, checking that would risk seeing that protesters are MORE vaccinated than supporters. What would happen politically then?
The scales would fall off other eyes and everyone would see it as a power trip. Politicians are not representing the people.(/)
Read 7 tweets

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