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@criticalthreats

Sep 21

Social media reports indicate that protests following #MahsaAmini's death are ongoing and have now occurred in 24 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. A thread: 1/6 #مهسا_امینی #IranProtests #MahsaAminii

[Interactive graphics here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/anti-…]

Footage has shown Iranian protestors chanting anti-regime slogans condemning #MahsaAmini's September 16th death in #Tehran.

Iranian social media users have reported internet connectivity issues in at least 12 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 21

#Russia redeploying its 217th Airborne Regiment from #Syria to #Ukraine is part of a larger months-long drawdown of Russian forces in Syria. newsweek.com/putin-pulling-… 1/7

Moscow faces severe manpower shortages in #Ukraine and is pulling some units from #Syria to inject into the fight. This continuing drawdown is facilitating the expansion of the #Iranian presence in Syria and exacerbating the Iran-Israel escalation cycle. 2/7

#Iran likely seeks to fill the security gap caused by this #Russian drawdown to expand Iranian military influence and maintain stability. 3/7

Read 7 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 21

@TheStudyofWar

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on 9/20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from 9/23-27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces continued disrupting ongoing #Russian efforts to reestablish ground lines of communications (GLOCs) across the Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.

#Russian forces are likely targeting #Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk oblasts to threaten Ukrainian positions along the Siverskyi Donets River.

Read 4 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 20

Footage circulating on social media suggests that protests following #Mahsah_Amini's death have occurred in 19 of #Iran's 31 provinces within the past three days. A thread: 1/5

Protests that were initially concentrated in #Tehran City and throughout #Kurdistan Province – where Amini was from – have since spread nationwide within the past day, reaching historically conservative cities like #Qom. 2/5

Protestors have chanted anti-regime slogans against mandatory veiling and against Supreme Leader #Khamenei's son, #Mojtaba, who some have speculated will succeed his father as Supreme Leader. CTP discusses Mojtaba and succession in a recent update: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 3/5

Read 5 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 8

@TheStudyofWar

NEW | #Ukrainian forces gained 400 square kilometers of territory northwest of #Izyum on September 6-7 as part of an opportunistic and highly effective counteroffensive in southeastern #Kharkiv Oblast. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the #Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threaten #Russian GLOCs in the area, prompting demoralized responses from Russian milbloggers.

#Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of #Kharkiv City, northwest of #Slovyansk, northeast of #Siversk, south and northeast of #Bakhmut, and northwest of #Donetsk City.

Read 4 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 7

@TheStudyofWar

NEW | The #IAEA report released on September 6 describes #Russian activities that increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident at the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Read today's update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Russian forces made incremental gains south of #Bakhmut and continued ground attacks north, northwest, and southwest of #Donetsk City.

#Ukrainian forces have launched likely opportunistic counterattacks in southern #Kharkiv Oblast and retaken several settlements.

Read 5 tweets

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