Thread by @KjetilTronvoll

1/: My initial reflections on the #Tigray - #Ethiopia #peaceagreement. First, it is commendable that the parties have reached an agreement. Admittedly, this was surprising. One should sincerely hope that the agreement will pave the way for durable peace.

2/: However, the #Tigray - #Ethiopia #peaceagreement circulating (still not in signed version) leaves many questions unanswered. Although the parties have committed themselves not to question any part of the agreement, it obligates us analysts to point out some issues of concern.

2b/: A huge disclaimer here: there is confusion on which text of the agreement is authentic. The agreement I base my points on is confirmed by several internationals as authentic, but we have to wait for the full signed version to appear before one can conclude on that.

3/: Key issues are left unaddressed, i.e. status of #Eritrea forces & #Amhara reg. forces in #Tigray; & the administrative status of West Tigray. One may infer some answers to these issues based on other elements in the agreement, but it opens up for ambiguity and uncertainty.

4/: The agreement ensures disarmament & demobilization of #Tigray Army #TDF. But who should provide needed security guarantees for Tigray population is left unanswered. #ENDF, who has evidently committed #warcrimes and #crimesagainsthumanity may surely not be trusted to do this?

5/: Likewise, the agreement guarantees the protection of #humanrights for the #Tigray civilian population – who should guarantee, monitor and ensure the compliance of this?

6/: The parties “agree and recognize that the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has only one defence force” – does this imply that #Amhara, #Afar and #Oromo regional forces also shall be disarmed and demobilized? Or is it only #TDF?

7/: The agreement states that “#ENDF shall be deployed along the international boundaries of #Ethiopia.” Will they ensure that #Eritrea withdraws; and if not, what then?

8/: The #Ethiopia gov shall undertake “to facilitate the return & reintegration of internally displaced persons & refugees” – does that imply the return of 800.000 cleansed Tigrayans to West #Tigray? And if so, what will happen to the 200.000 or so resettled Amharas living there?

9/: In this vein, “the Parties commit to resolving issues of contested areas in accordance with the Constitution” – what does this imply? Restore #Tigray authority over territories now controlled by #Amhara?

10/: #Ethiopia Gov. “shall ensure and facilitate the representation” of #Tigray region in federal institutions /HoR: will this be #TPLF representatives, or handpicked reps by fed.gov., or based on a new election?

11/: The agreement ensures “the restoration of federal authority in #Tigray” – but what about regional authority? Will the current #TPLF reg. gov. remain as is?

12/: #Ethiopia gov. shall ensure "accountability, ascertaining the truth, redress for victims.” The overall political & military responsible for atrocities committed against civilian population of #Tigray is Abiy Ahmed. Is he willing to be put on trial, together with #ENDF gens.?

13/: Lastly, the agreement states that the “Legality and respect for constitutional norms and principles” shall be guiding. Does this imply that #Tigray can activate Art. 39 and ask for a referendum on independence from Ethiopia – as repeatedly promised by #TPLF ?

14/: Gen. Obasanjo admitted that the agreement was only the first step towards sustainable peace. The next weeks will be crucial in monitoring the parties compliance of the agreement. However, the seemingly weak and undersized AU monitoring set-up, does not bode well.

15/: The agreement only makes reference to AU in overseeing its implementation based on “African solutions to African problems” edict. It thus exempts #UN and its #SecuirtyCouncil for their responsibilities to oversee the conflict– possibly a solution favourable to both UN & AU.

16/: Let's pray that the above & more, issues may be solved through negotiations in the coming days. However, the #AU, #UN, #EU, #US & IC, should be vigilant in monitoring the process going forward - there are plenty of spoilers around in every camp. It is too early to pop the 🍾