Thread by @StephenMcDonell

Anyone banking on #ZeroCovid being wound back in #China soon, allowing the Chinese economy to bounce back, restoring supply chain reliability here in the near future… don’t. It’s going to take a looong time for China to ease #ZeroCovid.

The government in #China doesn’t seem to know exactly how to escape from the #ZeroCovid corner it’s painted itself into. This will be a long, drawn-out, process of trial and error easing, restricting, easing, restricting.

The huge, renewed, vaccination drive which would be needed before opening #China up hasn’t even started. Approving more effective international vaccines would help. Preparing medical facilities for a big influx of #Covid patients would also have to happen.

Also the public messaging would need to change. An example: many people in #China are completely unaware that a vaccinated person can just stay at home for a week after contracting #Covid19.

Unfortunately the government has been a victim of its earlier pre-vaccine #Covid success and seems to have drunk its own Kool-aid. It needed to spend less time telling Chinese people how lucky they’ve been to be protected by the Party and more time finding a way out of the crisis

And consider that, in January, #China will be heading into its fourth year of the #Covid crisis. It started here before everywhere else and it’s continuing here long after everywhere else has found a way to move forward.

Of course other countries have their own serious #Covid health problems to deal with. I’m just talking about #China where strict stay at home lockdowns on 100s of millions of people is crushing livelihoods, having mental health impacts and threatening social stability.

Public confidence in the Chinese government’s capacity to manage the #Covid crisis is collapsing all over the country. Tibet and Xinjiang have been locked down for months. There are tensions in #Guangzhou, in #Chongqing and the upheaval at #Foxconn is a taste of what could come.

Also, I’m wondering how many clashes it’ll take for editors overseas to stop adding the line in stories,“In acts of public defiance not normally seen in #China…”? This year #Covid protestors have rumbled with police in #Guangzhou, #Tibet, #Foxconn, Yanjiao (outside #Beijing) etc

Here’s #potential #China opening up scenario, looking at #Covid-related deaths in #Taiwan and consider that there has been a wider vaccine role out in Taiwan, using more effective vaccines + it’s hospitals are also better etc…

https://twitter.com/hongshenzhu/status/1582937111912931328

I spoke to a doctor here yesterday who was lamenting that #China has wasted the opportunity it had over the last three years to expand the country’s hospital ICU capacity, instead throwing resources into a #ZeroCovid strategy which is only delaying a solution to the #Covid crisis

#Xinjiang is the latest region in #China for protests demanding an end to #ZeroCovid lockdowns. There’ve been lockdowns there for months. After people died in a house fire, there are claims that residents weren’t allowed out quickly enough + firefighters were delayed getting in.

Lots of images of the #Xinjiang #Covid protests being shared… #China

https://twitter.com/mare_porter/status/1596300988113391616

Here are some more details on the #Xinjiang fire… “#China Xinjiang: Ten dead in Urumqi residential block fire” bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…

“#China #Xinjiang: Urumqi rocked by #Covid lockdown protests after deadly fire” bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…

In reference to what the doctor said above re #China’s hospital ICU unit capacity… #ZeroCovid

https://twitter.com/macastel3/status/1596384064503615488

Crossing the main east west thoroughfare in #China’s capital city tonight you can see how pumping it is under #ZeroCovid…