Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread on Turkey’s Energy Ambitions & Regional Dominance
1-18 President Erdoğan gave an energy-focused speech last Friday in a ceremony for the capacity expansion of the Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility, which reached 4.6 billion cubic meters (162.45 bcf).

2-18 The speech highlights several energy policy issues, provides some interesting data, and most importantly, highlights the two issues that we focused on in this week's and last week’s newsletters: Relations with Russia and the desire to be a gas hub.
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3-18 Below are translated excerpts from the speech (from medyanotu.com ):
- “Silivri has become the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe.”
#Turkey #Natgas #Russia #Europe

4-18 Data: #Turkey
“Our Silivri Natural Gas Storage Facility has a daily injection capacity of 45 mcm and a withdrawal capacity of 75 mcm. In other words, our facility will be able to meet one-fourth of the demand alone, even during the peak consumption period of our country.”

5-18 “Considering that our country's total natural gas consumption this year will be 53.5 billion cubic meters, the importance of the 4.6 billion cubic meters we reached in Silivri and the 5.4 billion cubic meters we targeted in Tuz Gölü will be better understood.”

6-18 More data: #Turkey
-“Another result of all these developments is the transformation of our country into one of the world's leading energy trade centers with its 7 natural gas pipelines, 4 LNG facilities, two of which are floating, 15 entry points, and other advantages.”

7-18 Info:
-“With the Turkish Stream Project; We provide gas flows to #Bulgaria, #Greece, North Macedonia, #Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, #Serbia, and #Hungary. Through the TANAP Project, we delivered 18.5 billion cubic meters of gas to #Europe today.”

8-18 Natural gas hub: #Turkey
- “When we put our LNG facility in Saros into service, we will come to a much stronger position in this field. Our aim is to transform our country into a global center where the natural gas reference price is determined as soon as possible.”

9-18 🔥🔥
-“We had important meetings with my dear friend Mr. Putin on this subject. We have taken and are taking our steps and thus Thrace, in particular, will become a hub in natural gas and energy. We are working on this issue together with our energy partners in our region.”

10-18 Nuclear: #Turkey
-“When we add the #Nuclear Power Energy, which still has a total investment of 20 billion dollars, .. We will rise to a completely different level in the field of energy.”

11-18 My take:
#Turkey is trying to position itself as a regional energy superpower, make the most out of the war in Ukraine, and become a gas hub for Europe. Meanwhile, it wants to provide enough energy to expand and develop its economy.

12- My take:
Calling Putin a friend before a domestic audience is significant. This might also provide another angle to the decision to ask oil tankers to verify their insurance to be able to cross Turkish waterways, especially since most delayed tankers were carrying Kazak oil.

13- My take:
With little oil & gas, the emphasis on developing domestic energy resources is justified. Hence the importance of nuclear power plants. But Turkey still needs Russia to build & operate the plants, just another angle of Turkish-Russian cooperation in the energy sector

14-18 Calling Putin a “friend” may not be the best way to express the energy sector development in Turkey. While Turkey is becoming a hostage to Russia, She might end up Russia’s nightmare. Cooperation may not be a threat to the EU, but a conflict between Turkey and Russia is.

15-18 The most important points were NOT mentioned in the speech. It was supposed to be a comprehensive energy policy speech, but several issues were left out either because they were overlooked or by design.

16- While Erdogan mentioned climate change in his speech, he did not talk about renewable energy projects in #Turkey. Most importantly, he did not talk about Turkey's electric vehicle & battery industries, especially since Turkey has the largest reserves of graphite in the world.

17-18 #Graphite is an essential part of electric vehicles' batteries. He also ignored the Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline that transports crude oil from Kurdistan, Iraq, to Ceyhan port on the Mediterranean Sea in #Turkey.

18-18 Turkey is poised to be an important player in European energy markets. The Turkish-Russian alliance is strong enough to influence global energy markets, but any dispute between those two countries will wreak havoc on these markets.
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