•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is + #SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our take
•We expect the market to open and close higher on Monday
•Momentum points higher, but #Powell and #CPI stand in the way. We will be cautious
•Indexes need to break above current bear flag pattern
•A break below 3765 will be followed by a major move lower
Comments:
The Bear market is not over yet, rallies could be persuasive, but deceptive
#CPI may come in softer, but #Powell's mouth is the main hurdle. If momentum isn't killed, the next big barrier for $SPX will be the donward trend line +the 200DMA #SPX
We should look at the indices that have led the recent moves up and down: $DJI, $IWM, $DJT, #S5TH.
The #DJI has a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it last Friday, and did so on higher volume, closing above 50DMA and 20DMA. Bullish, DJI should continue up on Monday
$SPX
$DJT has as $DJI a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it yesterday in higher volume, closing above 20DMA, and like $SPX rigth at the 50DMA
The general look of this chart is bullish short term, so a continuation rally is on the menu for next week
• Rates, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX and $VVIX are above 20DMA and uptrending
• $SPX closed below 200, 100, 50 and 20 DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Leading sectors are breaking down
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX#VIX#trading
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
•Seasonality favors up movement
•It was all about heavy $GEX & #Quad witching day
•Indices are very near strong support
• $VIX and $VVIX still in donwtrend
• Breadth indicator (#S5TH) is still holding #SPX
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come #SPX
$DIA
Same picture for #DIA, sell orders above Dec 1 high pushed the #DJI lower
It went down after an impressive initial rally
Bounced from 20DMA
• Rates, inflation, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX above TL and 20DMA
• All indices broke below 20DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Dealers are now net short
•Quadruple witching: large negative stack at 3900
$ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• Indexes on lower weekly volume
• Breadth indicators still holding
• Indexes are at important supports
• Seasonality favors ↑movement
• Lower #CPI would push the market ↑
• Market ↑ on 50 bps rate hike