...the legitimacy and utility of the "#SpecialMilitaryOperation" and #PutinRegime. Once this happens, much of the occupied territories will be surrendered by #Russian troops to Kyiv and not have to be recaptured by #Ukrainian troops. /END
Commenting thread on the below and similar analyses:
There is too much emphasis, in many assessments of #Russia's 2014-15 & 2022 invasions of #Ukraine, on allegedly fundamental or even fatal mistakes made in these decisions by #Putin & his entourage. /1 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13…
The ideological predisposition towards an irredentist revanche, in the neo-Soviet & -Tsarist elite of #Russia, has been strong since the 1990s. This imperial drive was waiting to become unleashed, and has been marginally contained by rational calculus & strategic deliberation. /2
It was looking for different ad hoc opportunities rather than developing competing long-term #strategies to become implemented. Soft, dark, sharp and other forms of non-military power instruments were only applied to the degree that they could replace traditional #hardpower. /3
Zuerst müsste die russisch besetzte Landverbindung von der #Krim zum #Donbas beseitigt werden. Der Isthmus von #Perekop zwischen der Festlandukraine und Krim kann von #Russland womöglich lange gehalten werden... /3
Congratulations to the writers of #VolodymyrZelenskyy's excellent speech! While most people lionize now #Zelenskyy, I do not think that another president of #Ukraine would have been much worse. /1 - THREAD
Imagine #VolodymyrZelenskiy had not entered the presidential race and there had been a different contest and election in early 2019. /2
THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)
The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2
Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3
Как то многие #русские не поняли или не хотят признать простую вещь: кроме других народов, #чекитсы ради своей власти уничтожали 70 лет и русскую традицию, мысль, науку, культуру, веру, нацию. /1 fb.watch/hut-zGrhWT/
А теперь уничтожают ещё и российское государство - все под предлогом защиты и безопасности русских от капиталистов, троцкистов, террористов, сатанистов, неонацистов, гомосексуалистов... /2
Вспомните сентябрь 1999 года: Ваши жилые дома в Москве, Волгодонске и Буйнакске тогда также взрывались, как сегодня жилые дома "братских" украинцев. Все ради власти гебешной корпорации. Вы, простые русские, для ваших правителей такой же расходный материал как и другие народы. /3