On the Purpose of #ArmsDeliveries to Kyiv: #Ukraine's #liberation demands #Russia's #humiliation - THREAD:
The primary function of good and numerous #offensiveweapons for #Ukraine is not military and bellicose, but political and pacifying. /1
@SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @rightsinrussia
The purpose of #Ukrainian #battletanks, #fighterplanes, long-range #missiles, etc. is to make Russia's #defeats humiliating. Only disasters on the #battlefield in Ukraine and frequent hits against supply lines within #Russia will make many #Russians rethink... /2
...the legitimacy and utility of the "#SpecialMilitaryOperation" and #PutinRegime. Once this happens, much of the occupied territories will be surrendered by #Russian troops to Kyiv and not have to be recaptured by #Ukrainian troops. /END

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Jan 8
Commenting thread on the below and similar analyses:
There is too much emphasis, in many assessments of #Russia's 2014-15 & 2022 invasions of #Ukraine, on allegedly fundamental or even fatal mistakes made in these decisions by #Putin & his entourage. /1 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13…
The ideological predisposition towards an irredentist revanche, in the neo-Soviet & -Tsarist elite of #Russia, has been strong since the 1990s. This imperial drive was waiting to become unleashed, and has been marginally contained by rational calculus & strategic deliberation. /2
It was looking for different ad hoc opportunities rather than developing competing long-term #strategies to become implemented. Soft, dark, sharp and other forms of non-military power instruments were only applied to the degree that they could replace traditional #hardpower. /3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6
THREAD -- Antworten auf vier Interviewfragen zur #Krimfrage:
Für wie wahrscheinlich halten Sie, dass die ukrainische Armee eine Gegenoffensive auf der #Krim in den kommenden Wochen/Monaten vollzieht? /1
@SCEEUS_UI @DUF_Forum @crimeaplatform @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin @DerDuod
@SCEEUS_UI @DUF_Forum @crimeaplatform @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin @DerDuod @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @StimmeUkraine @UkraineworldD @ukrainian_week @DUHK_2020 @VitscheBerlin @FiS_Heidelberg @krus_stern Es wird womöglich weiteren Beschuss von Militäranlagen - insbesondere Flugplätze, die #Kertschbrücke und Raketenbasen - geben. Jedoch scheint mir eine Landoffensive auf die #Krim zunächst unwahrscheinlich.... /2
Zuerst müsste die russisch besetzte Landverbindung von der #Krim zum #Donbas beseitigt werden. Der Isthmus von #Perekop zwischen der Festlandukraine und Krim kann von #Russland womöglich lange gehalten werden... /3
Read 13 tweets
Dec 23, 2022
Congratulations to the writers of #VolodymyrZelenskyy's excellent speech! While most people lionize now #Zelenskyy​, I do not think that another president of #Ukraine would have been much worse. /1 - THREAD
Imagine #VolodymyrZelenskiy​ had not entered the presidential race and there had been a different contest and election in early 2019. /2
If, for instance, #PetroPoroshenko​, #YuliiaTymoshenko​, #AnatolyyHrytsenko​, #VitaliKlitschko​, or another of the more feasible candidates had become Ukrainian president, this would have changed little in the subsequent course of events. /3
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2022
THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)
The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2
Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3
Read 15 tweets
Dec 18, 2022
Как то многие #русские не поняли или не хотят признать простую вещь: кроме других народов, #чекитсы ради своей власти уничтожали 70 лет и русскую традицию, мысль, науку, культуру, веру, нацию. /1
fb.watch/hut-zGrhWT/
А теперь уничтожают ещё и российское государство - все под предлогом защиты и безопасности русских от капиталистов, троцкистов, террористов, сатанистов, неонацистов, гомосексуалистов... /2
Вспомните сентябрь 1999 года: Ваши жилые дома в Москве, Волгодонске и Буйнакске тогда также взрывались, как сегодня жилые дома "братских" украинцев. Все ради власти гебешной корпорации. Вы, простые русские, для ваших правителей такой же расходный материал как и другие народы. /3
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15, 2022
THREAD: Suppose one takes #JohnMearsheimer, the #RussianGovernment, @SWagenknecht, and similar analysts seriously. Since #Finland's #NATO application on 19 May 2022, we should be discussing every day how Helsinki is putting the future of humankind at risk. /1 @FansMearsheimer
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne Once #Finland enters @NATO, the length of the border between the Western alliance and #Russia will approximately double. #NATO will be able to attack #Putin's hometown St. Petersburg from two sides, from Finland approx. 170 km away and from #Estonia approx. 140 km away. /2
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne @NATO #Helsinki's reckless application, @NATO's positive response, and the almost complete ratification of #Finland's accession have brought us to the verge of #WorldWarIII. But somehow most foreign political TV shows today are about #Ukraine, and not about Finland. /3
Read 5 tweets

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