Thread by @i_am_jackis

#Bitcoin has reversed and confirmed its trend change as the majority of #crypto experts still fail to accept it and will be missing out.

The question is, will you ❓

Find out why in this thread below 🧵👇

1/

Nearly all major longer-term tools a lot of people use such as market structure, moving averages, supertrend, RSI, MACD, MVRV, Puell, % drop, and so on are pointing out to a trend reversal

That by itself wouldn't matter that much, it's the CONFLUENCE that matters here

2/

So first of all it's important to realize the time spent during each bear market + the percentage drop!

Diminishing returns each bull = diminishing drop each bear

With higher market capitalization the volatility will also diminish.

3/

Many are saying we need to hit more than -80% before a new cycle can begin & that is simply not the case

More than a % drop is important the time spent in the bear & this has matched the past cycles which is between 12-14 months (If we count April 21 as top, thats even more)

4/

This was important to be said because more than what happens is where & when it happens

And it did happen during one of the most depressing periods of the past decades.

5/

Technicals:

Let's have a 1st look at the Supertrend + 200 Daily moving average

A super powerful combination to predict long-term trends

Simple rule, when price is above these two = bullish / when below = bearish

The price has flipped that for the 1st time since the ATH

6/

The same thing happened in 2019 when the bear market ended (many didn't know yet back then) and then the price followed with another 150% rally even from those prices.

Not saying the same thing happens now but we are at that place + the market confirmed THE bottom back then

7/

For me personally the most important is market structure.

After retesting the previous cycle ATH for the first time ever & deviating below with #FTX panic capitulation we have now managed to reclaim it with HH on the Weekly TF for the first time since ATH

THAT MATTERS!

8/

Back in January 2022 when we got the first MS break below 40K, I became heavily bearish. We got the same just vice versa now.

These signals are not to be underestimated especially on Weekly TF - AND - after -75% drop.

9/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1494052477771075591

When we look at the mining long-term data all have been signalizing long term bottom levels that has so far in the past cycles just as well

10/

RSI not just the most oversold ever but also the first-ever Weekly bullish divergence in the oversold territory

And look at the reaction we got already! 🔥

11/

To top that even more, we have seen the largest Weekly volume ever on the panic #FTX capitulation.

And I know that many naysayers will say that wasn't the capitulation but please just open your damn eyes

12/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1613321446641618948

Many will try to negate big volume to #Binance zero fees campaign & while that is true, there are many important buts

1) Zero fees only for retail not top tier clients that make the most volume
2) Been running since Summer 22
3) Binance is still more than 2/3 of the market

13/

Now even if all of that has not convinced you the bottom is in, that is still alrighty, cause even if it is not, there are still huge probabilities for at the very least multi-month trend reversal.

And u should ask yourself, whether you wanna miss on that one?

14/

And u also need to ask yourself a question, what if it truly was the bottom and I miss out completely just because I was waiting for a few $ dollars lower?

All while the majority engagement is still received for bearish posts calling for 14K?

15/

An ideal scenario for the majority to miss out as they are waiting for 14K while those that believed for the longer term got shaken out during the #FTX panic.

An ideal scenario for the majority to be wrong.

And let's not forget how #BTC likes to front run obvious levels

16/

Now I wouldn't imagine a straight-up candle to the moon. We could actually spend more time in the 25-20K range. We could also go quickly.

This post is mainly to inform you about the HTF reversal trend change

I'd imagine more something like this 👇

17/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1615106813015334933

Also what is currently helping out the narrative is the IM correlation I discovered last year in July. So far it has been absolutely spot-on in all aspects!

Based on it, #BTC should be trading somewhere around 40K this year. Be sure to check it out

18/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1543942724864417793

Based on this I was able to predict the drop in both #Silver & #Bitcoin in February 2022. Worked like magic ✍️

19/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1492447286470844416

Be sure to check the IM thread, as it has predicted the tops & bottoms for all macro assets mentioned 👌

Let's not forget this #Ethereum vs #Nasdaq fractal too. As both #ETH & #BTC move very much in line 🤝

20/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1547602719975751680

To further support the narrative of risk-on-assets upside, we look at the bearish outcome for the dollar $DXY

This would be on a thread on its own but for now, will share the chart below that predicted the top 😉

21/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1572902548884914176

Also, let us not forget this bear market cycle we went through an overextended period of capitulations / forced sellings

1) #LUNA | #TERRA
2) #Celsius | #3AC | #BlockFi
3) #FTX

All of those happened in a small period time of 11 days. The rest was sideways accumulation ✍️

22/

Lastly, let's not forget that #Bitcoin | #Crypto haters become the loudest at the extremes of bearish euphoria!

So far has worked great in the past and does makes sense from the psychological aspect

23/

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1538821794999767040

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Thank you 🙌